1530 Component Authentication

Vintage Rolex Discussion
Joined: August 18th, 2003, 8:42 am

March 28th, 2012, 5:37 pm #21

As my trusted Jewler/watchmaker is 'inconclusive' on being able to appraise this watch and provide authentication based upon these items, but is admittedly not a Vintage expert, I wanted to cast a wider net for opinion on the effect of the value.

I don't know that there is anything 'wrong' per-say with the case screw, just a part that contributed to the inconclusive rating.

He was very dismissive of the corrosion and I am getting the impression that is my major issue.

Do you recommend sending this to Rolex for verification per the jeweler?

-John
First of all, from a technical point of view - in my opinion - there is a big difference between it being technically possible to create a replica part - and then for it to actually happen. There is no doubt in my mind that Philip is correct regd. the possibilities of copying mechanical parts parts, but in my opinion - we are not there yet. F.ex. in order to create a complete "faked" movement for a typical Rolex you will need to create between 125-200 parts - which in turn has to be finished and assembled - and finally resold. While technically possible (to an extent) - the time, complexity and also cost of something like this is quite high. At least to an degree where you will have to produce and sell - a lot of these before you are close to break-even.

Thats raw parts. The next and much more complicated thing to fake is dials. We have all discussed this ad nauseum on the forum, and to be absolutely honest, yeah, I'm sure someone with the necessary financial resources and time + knowledge could probably "build" a PN 6239 dial that is perfect - but I have yet to see successful attempts of adding patina, wear and the small inaccuracies that tell real experts that this dial is "right". Again - lets say someone sits down and perfects this - what are they going to do ? Sell 500 pieces of PN's in a week to get their investment back ? No, of course not. This would be be found out in the market in about 20 seconds. You can sell maybe 2-3 a year - and if break-even is at 500 (just an example) you will be making money in about 160 years. It just makes no business sense. And this is really the main reason for why we are seeing sloppy quality of fakes in the market of vintage Rolex. The point where investment and resell able quantities match, just leaves no means for perfect fakes, but at best 85% Perfect / 15% sloppy fakes targeted at the ebay buying public.

Besides from these points - I have noticed in the market that besides for "super nice specimens" a lot of high end collectors are really going in to super-niche markets. Examples hereof are super rare Rolex and ultra-complicated Patek. I guess some of the thoughts behind this is that rarer is better - as in - less likely to fake. I guess it makes sense to some extent - especially on the super complications. How many good PP 5002 fakes have you seen ?

M



http://www.tudorcollector.com
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Joined: May 28th, 2007, 5:43 pm

March 28th, 2012, 6:20 pm #22

The only thing is...with Rolex...the most valuable examples or "niche" watches...share mechanical components of far less valuable watches...there are also very few examples to compare with. This is especially true with early chronographs. Provenance will be everything at some point and even that can be faked to a degree. It will get very slippery.

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Joined: May 7th, 2006, 5:02 pm

March 28th, 2012, 6:36 pm #23

First of all, from a technical point of view - in my opinion - there is a big difference between it being technically possible to create a replica part - and then for it to actually happen. There is no doubt in my mind that Philip is correct regd. the possibilities of copying mechanical parts parts, but in my opinion - we are not there yet. F.ex. in order to create a complete "faked" movement for a typical Rolex you will need to create between 125-200 parts - which in turn has to be finished and assembled - and finally resold. While technically possible (to an extent) - the time, complexity and also cost of something like this is quite high. At least to an degree where you will have to produce and sell - a lot of these before you are close to break-even.

Thats raw parts. The next and much more complicated thing to fake is dials. We have all discussed this ad nauseum on the forum, and to be absolutely honest, yeah, I'm sure someone with the necessary financial resources and time + knowledge could probably "build" a PN 6239 dial that is perfect - but I have yet to see successful attempts of adding patina, wear and the small inaccuracies that tell real experts that this dial is "right". Again - lets say someone sits down and perfects this - what are they going to do ? Sell 500 pieces of PN's in a week to get their investment back ? No, of course not. This would be be found out in the market in about 20 seconds. You can sell maybe 2-3 a year - and if break-even is at 500 (just an example) you will be making money in about 160 years. It just makes no business sense. And this is really the main reason for why we are seeing sloppy quality of fakes in the market of vintage Rolex. The point where investment and resell able quantities match, just leaves no means for perfect fakes, but at best 85% Perfect / 15% sloppy fakes targeted at the ebay buying public.

Besides from these points - I have noticed in the market that besides for "super nice specimens" a lot of high end collectors are really going in to super-niche markets. Examples hereof are super rare Rolex and ultra-complicated Patek. I guess some of the thoughts behind this is that rarer is better - as in - less likely to fake. I guess it makes sense to some extent - especially on the super complications. How many good PP 5002 fakes have you seen ?

M



http://www.tudorcollector.com
...20+ years ago, as in the case if the suspicious TX PN and the R*****i BC Submariner dials.
Really artisanal efforts on those examples, with hand-printed qualities and added patina.
Versus todays rather clunky digital copies--Red Subs, DRSDs, 1655s, poor PNs, etc--those old knock-offs are like hand-painted Matisse counterfeits. I think the big $ auction results for the former vs. the latter speak for themselves.
Best,
T.

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Joined: July 9th, 2011, 9:36 am

March 28th, 2012, 7:11 pm #24

Just remember that during cold war US Government believed the US dollars bills safe from really good fakes untill they discovered in the mid nineties the "Supernotes" alledgedly
printed in north Korea since ...the eighties.

From wikipedia:
"The name derives from the fact that the quality of the notes exceeds that of the originals. Some have estimated that 1 in 10,000 bills was a counterfeit of the quality ascribed to supernotes."

It took more than ten years to spot these really good fakes
But I know it is an endless debate between believers and non believers.

Edit for picture : an average bill like this one contains more than 10.000 pictural details,
so making a copy of a dial...

Last edited by greenoysters on March 28th, 2012, 7:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Joined: March 27th, 2012, 7:46 pm

March 28th, 2012, 7:14 pm #25

Hello--

I have recently purchased a 5513 from an esteemed member of this forum. I then took the watch to my local Rolex dealer for authentication, insurance appraisal, and a quick once over with verification of the seals and water resistance. All checked out until the watchmaker pulled the movement appart for authentication. A few issues have arisen and I would like a second opinion as they have deemed authentication 'inconclusive' and that the watch needs to be sent to Rolex for final authentication.

Image 1 - The concern is the lack of engine turning in the circled area. He feels this whole area should have engine turning in it.

Image 2 - The concern is the 'P'. He expects to see a 'R'.

Image 3 - The concern is the highlighted case screw. This seems improper.

My question is fairly simple. Do I need to be concerned and how concerned should I be? Are these normal variations in Rolex parts? Do I have some nominally value-affecting aftermarket parts? Or do I have a major issue?

Thanks,
John



Thanks everyone for the responses!

I now understand that it doesn't make sense for anyone to manufacture a main plate for this movement that isn't Rolex. I was also able to find a main plate here:



Based on this thread:

http://www.network54.com/Forum/207593/m ... riner+5513

That has the same markings. I also understand that the case screw isn't a critical part, and as long as it works is sufficient.


On the topic of corrosion, I have requested a full case picture and pressure test of the case. Stay tuned...

-John
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Joined: January 25th, 2008, 2:23 pm

March 28th, 2012, 8:06 pm #26

Hello--

I have recently purchased a 5513 from an esteemed member of this forum. I then took the watch to my local Rolex dealer for authentication, insurance appraisal, and a quick once over with verification of the seals and water resistance. All checked out until the watchmaker pulled the movement appart for authentication. A few issues have arisen and I would like a second opinion as they have deemed authentication 'inconclusive' and that the watch needs to be sent to Rolex for final authentication.

Image 1 - The concern is the lack of engine turning in the circled area. He feels this whole area should have engine turning in it.

Image 2 - The concern is the 'P'. He expects to see a 'R'.

Image 3 - The concern is the highlighted case screw. This seems improper.

My question is fairly simple. Do I need to be concerned and how concerned should I be? Are these normal variations in Rolex parts? Do I have some nominally value-affecting aftermarket parts? Or do I have a major issue?

Thanks,
John



Now I'm truly insulted.
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Joined: May 7th, 2006, 5:02 pm

March 28th, 2012, 9:22 pm #27

Just remember that during cold war US Government believed the US dollars bills safe from really good fakes untill they discovered in the mid nineties the "Supernotes" alledgedly
printed in north Korea since ...the eighties.

From wikipedia:
"The name derives from the fact that the quality of the notes exceeds that of the originals. Some have estimated that 1 in 10,000 bills was a counterfeit of the quality ascribed to supernotes."

It took more than ten years to spot these really good fakes
But I know it is an endless debate between believers and non believers.

Edit for picture : an average bill like this one contains more than 10.000 pictural details,
so making a copy of a dial...

nt

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Joined: May 28th, 2007, 5:43 pm

March 28th, 2012, 10:54 pm #28

+1
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Joined: July 9th, 2004, 2:59 pm

March 29th, 2012, 7:27 am #29

First of all, from a technical point of view - in my opinion - there is a big difference between it being technically possible to create a replica part - and then for it to actually happen. There is no doubt in my mind that Philip is correct regd. the possibilities of copying mechanical parts parts, but in my opinion - we are not there yet. F.ex. in order to create a complete "faked" movement for a typical Rolex you will need to create between 125-200 parts - which in turn has to be finished and assembled - and finally resold. While technically possible (to an extent) - the time, complexity and also cost of something like this is quite high. At least to an degree where you will have to produce and sell - a lot of these before you are close to break-even.

Thats raw parts. The next and much more complicated thing to fake is dials. We have all discussed this ad nauseum on the forum, and to be absolutely honest, yeah, I'm sure someone with the necessary financial resources and time + knowledge could probably "build" a PN 6239 dial that is perfect - but I have yet to see successful attempts of adding patina, wear and the small inaccuracies that tell real experts that this dial is "right". Again - lets say someone sits down and perfects this - what are they going to do ? Sell 500 pieces of PN's in a week to get their investment back ? No, of course not. This would be be found out in the market in about 20 seconds. You can sell maybe 2-3 a year - and if break-even is at 500 (just an example) you will be making money in about 160 years. It just makes no business sense. And this is really the main reason for why we are seeing sloppy quality of fakes in the market of vintage Rolex. The point where investment and resell able quantities match, just leaves no means for perfect fakes, but at best 85% Perfect / 15% sloppy fakes targeted at the ebay buying public.

Besides from these points - I have noticed in the market that besides for "super nice specimens" a lot of high end collectors are really going in to super-niche markets. Examples hereof are super rare Rolex and ultra-complicated Patek. I guess some of the thoughts behind this is that rarer is better - as in - less likely to fake. I guess it makes sense to some extent - especially on the super complications. How many good PP 5002 fakes have you seen ?

M



http://www.tudorcollector.com
speculative markets without factoring in the essentials of confidence, not the confidence of traders but the buying public. If fakes become undetectable then the exclusivity of many of the 'grails' comes into question. Bearing in mind much of the confidence in pieces is mostly inpart based on observations over time with a few exception pieces such a military watches with unimpeachable Rolex UK provenance, but all that could be faked with a watch in the right serial number range.

So the confidence derived from observation may falter if a it starts to be unravelled or flawlessly copied.............todays understanding may change fundamentally over time. When one's knowledge base relies on observation in essence you may just need an apparently 'unimpeachable' one owner source watch and the world's understanding may start to change.

Once confidence starts to ebb, the the market tends to move with it, to safer investment opportunities. The current world financial  markets will not always be in the turmoil they currently are and greater opportunities will arise elsewhere, whether the portability and mobility of capital movement thru a grail watch will stand the test of time, only time will tell.

But any form of capital growth/mobility currently under the tax radar may not necessarily stay 'status quo', especially in the anti money laundering world in which we live.So the real threat may not be copies/fakes but changes in tax regimes.

regards

 

John,
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Joined: October 22nd, 2007, 6:21 pm

March 29th, 2012, 12:34 pm #30

Thanks everyone for the responses!

I now understand that it doesn't make sense for anyone to manufacture a main plate for this movement that isn't Rolex. I was also able to find a main plate here:



Based on this thread:

http://www.network54.com/Forum/207593/m ... riner+5513

That has the same markings. I also understand that the case screw isn't a critical part, and as long as it works is sufficient.


On the topic of corrosion, I have requested a full case picture and pressure test of the case. Stay tuned...

-John
[/IMG]
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