The Pros and Cons of Brexit and Remain

Steve K
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Steve K
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Joined: June 27th, 2014, 10:44 pm

February 26th, 2018, 9:09 am #1

This is an attempt to objectively lay out the relative pluses of Leaving or Remain and the obvious counter arguments (but not the counter counter or counter counter counter arguments)

As fairly as I can I've laid out:
- Reasons to leave the EU
- Reasons to Remain
- Specious/False reasons to Leave
- Specious False reasons to Remain

The idea is the OP gets updated with serious omissions and error corrections but discussions about the personalities involved or negotiations stay in their relevant threads. So comments please
Reasons to Leave EU
Reason to LeaveCounter Argument[/td]
1. We give the EU control of £13.1B a year (~250M a week) and net contribute £8.6B a year and we could make better use of that money


(link)
The £13B is less than 1% of GDP and less than 2% of government spend and our farming and scientific areas benefit considerably from the £4.5B in grants we receive back from that
2. Free movement and European Citizenship means we have to allow any of 450 million Europeans come here, take our jobs, take our benefits and place difficult to manage burdens on our housing, education systems and social services

Nearly 200,000 are coming each year
The net numbers are reducing (just 90,000 net per year now) as the Eastern nations become more convergent, we can block those who are not genuinely seeking work and many of the EU migrants are filling essential roles in the NHS and other areas
3. We have to accept as British law rules made in Brussels where we are outvoted by the other nations who do not care about UK needsWe only have to accept such rules in limited areas, in all key areas we have a veto and in all political areas that veto is only released IF a specific UK referendum approves the change
4. The EU keeps expanding with new nations that are non convergent to the UKWe can veto any new nation joining and will not make the mistakes we made in 2004
5 The EU takes control of our fishing areas through the Common Fisheries PolicyFish do not recognise borders and without some agreement with EU nations our fish resources will just get trawled up when they wander into their waters. Some agreement is inevitable in or out
6. We cannot negotiate beneficial trade deals with other countries There are no countries we could negotiate with that would be beneficial to UK jobs where we do not already have a substantial trade agreement through the EU (eg Australia, Canada)
7. The EU forces us to accept cruel animal practices such as live animal transportThere are no substantial reasons to end such practices as most people are happy with current meat supply
Reasons to Remain in the EU
Reason to RemainCounter Argument[/td]
1. Being in the Single Market is vital to our economic position especially in these areas
- Selling Financial Services to EU
- Maintaining a Far East underwritten automotive manufacturing sector
- Paper free goods transfer for all industries but especially Aerospace and Automotive

In the most obvious exit scenarios these will be so badly affected the country will be poorer and jobs lost
The single market means we import more from the EU than we export to them so we have a strong hand to negotiate good trade deals for our key areas

Jobs lost will be balanced by less EU migrants working here
2. Lack of free access to Europe's markets risks our key industries falling below critical mass so will inevitably contract or even die sucking in even more imports from more efficient large market serving competitors We will negotiate a trade deal with the EU that means these industries will survive and thrive
3. Border with Ireland will be forced to be a hard border to implement WTO and EU rules. This risks NI becoming more alienated from the rest of the UK and worse it risks increased tensions in the republican dominated border areas
Not if we negotiate a wide ranging free trade deal with the EU
4. Border with mainland Europe will become paperwork intensive making supply less reliable and more expensive Not if we negotiate a wide ranging free trade deal with the EU
5. Imports of food from Europe will become more expensive as we have to implement WTO tariffs Not if we negotiate a wide ranging free trade deal with the EU, we don't have to have any tariffs and anyway who doesn't like living off home grown turnips
6. Access to European flights area, travel through Europe, access to health services, recognition of driving licences etc These things are easily negotiated and won't be a problem
7 We will lose the international negotiating muscle of being in the EU The EU does not always negotiate in our interest and we should be bold and confident and the world will listen to us
Specious or False 'reasons' to leave the EU
Supposed reason to LeaveRefutal[/td]
1. We have to accept asylum seekers because of the EUNo we don't, we have exemptions from the EU refugee agreements. Our obligations are from other treaties
2. The EU is a dictatorshipThe EU is a functioning democracy via the European Parliament, the EU can only force law in limited areas and we have vetos on all really key areas
3. The EU will become a Federal EU SuperstateIt has no such plans and as a member we have a veto over any such moves. A veto that is referendum interlocked
4. The EU will fast track admit Turkey leading to a massive muslim immigration to the UKWhile a member we have a veto over any state admission and Turkey is far far away from ever being a member
5. The European Court of Human Rights rules usIt is not an EU institution so we remain covered by it anyway, they only have supremacy in selected areas and have only ever ruled in line with rights agreements that we support
Specious and/or False 'reasons' to Remain
Supposed reason to RemainRefutal[/td]
1. Leaving adds to the risk of war and terrorism The EU has only a minor impact compared to partnerships like NATO, Five Eyes, the UN and peer to peer intelligence sharing
2. The NHS will collapse without medical staff from the EU We can continue to give work permits, residence whatever for the specialist workers we need

^
"The future was not supposed to be like this"

A McCluskey, P Humphreys 2013
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papasmurf
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papasmurf
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Joined: June 27th, 2014, 6:18 pm

February 26th, 2018, 9:15 am #2

What has not been set out by anyone as far as I can determine is how the around 2300 links we have with Europe split between those that will be effected by Brexit and those that won't be.

One example being that being able to use a UK driving licence on trips with no need of an international driving permit dates back to an agreement in 1968 and will not be effected by Brexit.
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scorpio
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scorpio
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Joined: June 27th, 2014, 10:52 pm

February 26th, 2018, 9:46 am #3

papasmurf wrote:What has not been set out by anyone as far as I can determine is how the around 2300 links we have with Europe split between those that will be effected by Brexit and those that won't be.

One example being that being able to use a UK driving licence on trips with no need of an international driving permit dates back to an agreement in 1968 and will not be effected by Brexit.
See link.. From EU.. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/b ... 018_en.pdf


Note.. Most of these scenarios are fallback (hard Brexit) scenarios.


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Steve K
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Steve K
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Joined: June 27th, 2014, 10:44 pm

February 27th, 2018, 1:53 pm #4

Well no one has challenged the analysis of the OP

So here's my conclusion

IF you believe the UK can have a significantly beneficial trading future outside the EU and/or you believe that the EU migration would have continued unmitigated then you should be a Leaver

OR

IF you believe the UK will significantly lose out on beneficial trade outside the EU and/or you believe that the EU migration would decline to tolerable levels then you should be a Remainer

Just about all the rest is minor or false


^
"The future was not supposed to be like this"

A McCluskey, P Humphreys 2013
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Deleted User
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February 27th, 2018, 2:31 pm #5

Testing testing
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Deleted User
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February 27th, 2018, 2:35 pm #6

Ooh good I’m back in the chat room again?
A lot of leavers chose to get out through emotive, cultural reasons and because they witnessed their or others wages stagnate and hope to get a decent home evaporate.
If the country gets richer but you are left behind....you object and point where you think the problem is ...then get called racist and stupid ...you have nothing to lose.
Ask the Americans in the rust belt who voted for Trump.
The real narrative or Brexit was immigration and the objections about immigration was not addressed . It was and still is dismissed as racism.
In other words objectivity is barking up the wrong tree.
Let’s have a little test. If you work for a company and your wages are fair...then itinerant workers who are prepared to work cheap( dint give me BS about minimum wage) and without knowing employment law start working and your wages stagnate but your Boss gets richer.
You object but your Boss tells you that you are racist and ignorant...how much motivation and loyalty would you have?
That’s the essence of Brexit .
Not giving yourself a slap on the back because you have discovered where the Leavers went wrong
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ACH1967
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ACH1967
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Joined: July 24th, 2014, 3:18 pm

February 27th, 2018, 3:29 pm #7

gansao wrote:Ooh good I’m back in the chat room again?
A lot of leavers chose to get out through emotive, cultural reasons and because they witnessed their or others wages stagnate and hope to get a decent home evaporate.
If the country gets richer but you are left behind....you object and point where you think the problem is ...then get called racist and stupid ...you have nothing to lose.
Ask the Americans in the rust belt who voted for Trump.
The real narrative or Brexit was immigration and the objections about immigration was not addressed . It was and still is dismissed as racism.
In other words objectivity is barking up the wrong tree.
Let’s have a little test. If you work for a company and your wages are fair...then itinerant workers who are prepared to work cheap( dint give me BS about minimum wage) and without knowing employment law start working and your wages stagnate but your Boss gets richer.
You object but your Boss tells you that you are racist and ignorant...how much motivation and loyalty would you have?
That’s the essence of Brexit .
Not giving yourself a slap on the back because you have discovered where the Leavers went wrong
Of course it’s always possible that those who got called stupid and racist were indeed stupid and racist. It’s one thing to accurately identify a thing and quite another to then use it to try and shut down debate.
You are right that ONE of the issues was an objection to immigration. The government could have done something about it but neither of them did (Labour or Tory) and as you say Labour were probably worse on this front by inferring racism and ignorance on those who objected.
To be fair the gap between rich and poor is not just an EU immigration thing it pretty much appears to be one of globalisation in general. There is no easy solution apart from some effective means of redistribution. I am no great fan of protectionism but I think it has its place (for example in strategic areas of the economy)
There’s a lot of double think going on too. For example a certain member who thinks immigration is the root of all evil also champions our ability to make free trade agreements with poorer countries. Like that’s not going to have a negative impact on UK employment.
Then I really don’t think you can dismiss the fuckwits who think that soverenity is an issue mainly because the way the EU works makes their heads hurt.
Now I know all this sounds like I am looking down my nose at leavers. I am not. I am calling idiots idiots. There are remainers, who I do not agree with, who I do not think are idiots because they have actually bothered to think about and understand the situation.
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Deleted User
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February 27th, 2018, 3:48 pm #8

ACH1967 wrote:
gansao wrote:Ooh good I’m back in the chat room again?
A lot of leavers chose to get out through emotive, cultural reasons and because they witnessed their or others wages stagnate and hope to get a decent home evaporate.
If the country gets richer but you are left behind....you object and point where you think the problem is ...then get called racist and stupid ...you have nothing to lose.
Ask the Americans in the rust belt who voted for Trump.
The real narrative or Brexit was immigration and the objections about immigration was not addressed . It was and still is dismissed as racism.
In other words objectivity is barking up the wrong tree.
Let’s have a little test. If you work for a company and your wages are fair...then itinerant workers who are prepared to work cheap( dint give me BS about minimum wage) and without knowing employment law start working and your wages stagnate but your Boss gets richer.
You object but your Boss tells you that you are racist and ignorant...how much motivation and loyalty would you have?
That’s the essence of Brexit .
Not giving yourself a slap on the back because you have discovered where the Leavers went wrong
Of course it’s always possible that those who got called stupid and racist were indeed stupid and racist. It’s one thing to accurately identify a thing and quite another to then use it to try and shut down debate.
You are right that ONE of the issues was an objection to immigration. The government could have done something about it but neither of them did (Labour or Tory) and as you say Labour were probably worse on this front by inferring racism and ignorance on those who objected.
To be fair the gap between rich and poor is not just an EU immigration thing it pretty much appears to be one of globalisation in general. There is no easy solution apart from some effective means of redistribution. I am no great fan of protectionism but I think it has its place (for example in strategic areas of the economy)
There’s a lot of double think going on too. For example a certain member who thinks immigration is the root of all evil also champions our ability to make free trade agreements with poorer countries. Like that’s not going to have a negative impact on UK employment.
Then I really don’t think you can dismiss the fuckwits who think that soverenity is an issue mainly because the way the EU works makes their heads hurt.
Now I know all this sounds like I am looking down my nose at leavers. I am not. I am calling idiots idiots. There are remainers, who I do not agree with, who I do not think are idiots because they have actually bothered to think about and understand the situation.
There are stupid and racist leavers but that doesn’t mean the leave narrative was based on stupidity and racism....and who exactly wants to stifle debate?
I dint care if you look down your nose at leavers or not....but doing so would in itself stifle your ability to look at Brexit , it’s cause and implications ..objectively.

Brexit ( just as the Bogey man Trump becoming POTUS) was caused Partly because people with power looked down their noses at certain groups of people.
..Americans with problems that would have been addressed in the past by Labour organisations. The irony is that those people see a right winger as the only one cares about them....not far from the position of many Leavers

It’s too late now to claim that the migrant problem was no due to the EU. If the remainers would have been willing to make this case instead of the default ‘ racist ‘ mantra then perhaps it would of made the difference.

Some people saw ( or perceived if you want )their wages stagnate, their chances of a decent house diminished and their communities permanently altered and reacted accordingly. If you want to look down on these people it says more about you than an ‘objective’ view of the pros and cons of Brexit could Possibly say about them

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ACH1967
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ACH1967
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Joined: July 24th, 2014, 3:18 pm

February 27th, 2018, 4:22 pm #9

gansao wrote:
ACH1967 wrote:
gansao wrote:Ooh good I’m back in the chat room again?
A lot of leavers chose to get out through emotive, cultural reasons and because they witnessed their or others wages stagnate and hope to get a decent home evaporate.
If the country gets richer but you are left behind....you object and point where you think the problem is ...then get called racist and stupid ...you have nothing to lose.
Ask the Americans in the rust belt who voted for Trump.
The real narrative or Brexit was immigration and the objections about immigration was not addressed . It was and still is dismissed as racism.
In other words objectivity is barking up the wrong tree.
Let’s have a little test. If you work for a company and your wages are fair...then itinerant workers who are prepared to work cheap( dint give me BS about minimum wage) and without knowing employment law start working and your wages stagnate but your Boss gets richer.
You object but your Boss tells you that you are racist and ignorant...how much motivation and loyalty would you have?
That’s the essence of Brexit .
Not giving yourself a slap on the back because you have discovered where the Leavers went wrong
Of course it’s always possible that those who got called stupid and racist were indeed stupid and racist. It’s one thing to accurately identify a thing and quite another to then use it to try and shut down debate.
You are right that ONE of the issues was an objection to immigration. The government could have done something about it but neither of them did (Labour or Tory) and as you say Labour were probably worse on this front by inferring racism and ignorance on those who objected.
To be fair the gap between rich and poor is not just an EU immigration thing it pretty much appears to be one of globalisation in general. There is no easy solution apart from some effective means of redistribution. I am no great fan of protectionism but I think it has its place (for example in strategic areas of the economy)
There’s a lot of double think going on too. For example a certain member who thinks immigration is the root of all evil also champions our ability to make free trade agreements with poorer countries. Like that’s not going to have a negative impact on UK employment.
Then I really don’t think you can dismiss the fuckwits who think that soverenity is an issue mainly because the way the EU works makes their heads hurt.
Now I know all this sounds like I am looking down my nose at leavers. I am not. I am calling idiots idiots. There are remainers, who I do not agree with, who I do not think are idiots because they have actually bothered to think about and understand the situation.
There are stupid and racist leavers but that doesn’t mean the leave narrative was based on stupidity and racism....and who exactly wants to stifle debate?
I dint care if you look down your nose at leavers or not....but doing so would in itself stifle your ability to look at Brexit , it’s cause and implications ..objectively.

Brexit ( just as the Bogey man Trump becoming POTUS) was caused Partly because people with power looked down their noses at certain groups of people.
..Americans with problems that would have been addressed in the past by Labour organisations. The irony is that those people see a right winger as the only one cares about them....not far from the position of many Leavers

It’s too late now to claim that the migrant problem was no due to the EU. If the remainers would have been willing to make this case instead of the default ‘ racist ‘ mantra then perhaps it would of made the difference.

Some people saw ( or perceived if you want )their wages stagnate, their chances of a decent house diminished and their communities permanently altered and reacted accordingly. If you want to look down on these people it says more about you than an ‘objective’ view of the pros and cons of Brexit could Possibly say about them
I don’t disagree with any of that apart from the idea that voting leave is the solution. Once again this is where we arrive at our impasse. You contend that was all they could do I contend that they should have got off their arses and protested in a more productive fashion.
Wasn’t Brown proposing british jobs for british workers? If he did that then demonstrating for british jobs for british workers could hardly be considered beyond the pale.
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Deleted User
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February 27th, 2018, 4:50 pm #10

ACH1967 wrote:
gansao wrote:
ACH1967 wrote: Quoting limited to 3 levels deep
There are stupid and racist leavers but that doesn’t mean the leave narrative was based on stupidity and racism....and who exactly wants to stifle debate?
I dint care if you look down your nose at leavers or not....but doing so would in itself stifle your ability to look at Brexit , it’s cause and implications ..objectively.

Brexit ( just as the Bogey man Trump becoming POTUS) was caused Partly because people with power looked down their noses at certain groups of people.
..Americans with problems that would have been addressed in the past by Labour organisations. The irony is that those people see a right winger as the only one cares about them....not far from the position of many Leavers

It’s too late now to claim that the migrant problem was no due to the EU. If the remainers would have been willing to make this case instead of the default ‘ racist ‘ mantra then perhaps it would of made the difference.

Some people saw ( or perceived if you want )their wages stagnate, their chances of a decent house diminished and their communities permanently altered and reacted accordingly. If you want to look down on these people it says more about you than an ‘objective’ view of the pros and cons of Brexit could Possibly say about them
I don’t disagree with any of that apart from the idea that voting leave is the solution. Once again this is where we arrive at our impasse. You contend that was all they could do I contend that they should have got off their arses and protested in a more productive fashion.
Wasn’t Brown proposing british jobs for british workers? If he did that then demonstrating for british jobs for british workers could hardly be considered beyond the pale.
Browns ‘ British jobs for British workers ‘was rhetoric of the worst kind.
He knew that it was bullshit .Imo he was worse than Johnson for hypocrisy and poor sound bites
There were political groups and rallies opposing excessive immigration iirc..they were called racists and right wing looneys.
Immigration control was effectively impossible within the single market. Forcing Restrictions for migrants would have bought a house for every liberal minded lawyer and the Bosses would rather hire migrant to destabilise and restrain the U.K. workers than not..imo.
I spoke to a Lithuanian ( could of been a Pole) and asked him why he didn’t work in Germany.
The wages are better and it’s nearer home....he said it was near impossible to get a job in Germany if you did not speak good German.
I have many a useless assistant from Eastern Europe who could only speak a handful of English words. I must be a master of sign language and mime by now.
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