Trigger Time Forum

Mindanao isn’t in the Middle East
but things are heating up here. The world is a mess not just in the Middle East
but other places including Asia and , of particular interest to me, in the Philippines.
Not only is the Philippines one of the countries contesting the waters of the
South China Sea (called the West Philippine Sea here) but there are and have
been for years a number of rebel groups and criminal gangs. I am bringing this
up now because there have been new attacks lately to the power grid in Mindanao
and I don’t know whether this will continue long enough that I will also lose
communications. I’m running on my backup generator currently. By way of a little
background:




 


There are Communist insurgents: the
NPA (New People’s Army)




 


There are also Muslim rebels
including: the MNLF (Moro National Liberation Front)



                                                                the MILF (Moro Islamic Liberation
Front)



                                                               
the BIFF (Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters)



                                                    
           the Abu Sayaf (Al Qaeda affiliated “bearers
of the sword)



 



There also extortion groups but they
and the NPA are not the current threat. Besides the Muslim groups mentioned above
these are divided into clans and all are often at odds with each other. The
government and the MNLF entered into a peace agreement a number of years ago
but not all Muslims were happy with it and that is what gave birth to the MILF.
More recently, the government has been trying to reach an agreement with that
group but in doing so has angered the MNLF which feels betrayed. The BIFF (that
is blamed for the current threat) like the MNLF has lost faith in the
government and its intentions. Last evening they blew up a power transmission
tower and that blacked out a large part of Mindanao. The power grid is fragile
to begin with and, if these attacks continue, we may be in for a long term
power outage. My assessment is that because there is no one group who speaks
for all Muslims there is little chance of a peaceful outcome. I am currently
carrying my .45 in a holster and cleaning my guns. Hopefully, this will all
blow over but who knows?




 


You may have heard about a
disturbance in Zamboanga involving the MNLF but that seems under control. The
U.S. Embassy in Manila has issued a couple of alerts recently. The second one
below is the one that seems to apply currently.








  



Emergency Message to U.S. Citizens



U.S. Embassy, Manila, Philippines



 



 September 17, 2013



THE EMBASSY OF THE UNITED STATES IS
TRANSMITTING THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION AS A PUBLIC SERVICE TO U.S. CITIZENS IN
THE PHILIPPINES.  PLEASE DISSEMINATE THIS MESSAGE TO ALL U.S. CITIZENS IN
YOUR ORGANIZATION OR NEIGHBORHOOD.  THANK YOU.



 



Continuing Violence In and Around Zamboanga City, Mindanao



 



The U.S. Embassy in Manila is actively monitoring the
ongoing clashes in and around Zamboanga City which we understand have resulted
in casualties and property damage.  U.S. citizens in the vicinity of the
fighting should exercise extreme caution and consider sheltering in place to
avoid becoming involved in the fighting or should follow instructions from
local authorities regarding evacuation.



If
you are a U.S. citizen in the affected area, we urge you to contact the U.S.
Embassy in Manila to notify us of your situation, especially if you are stranded
or trapped in the area, have been injured or suffered property damage, or have
otherwise been affected by this fighting.



Furthermore,
if you are aware of other U.S. citizens affected by these events, we ask that
you encourage them to contact the U.S. Embassy.  If they cannot contact
the Embassy, please contact us on their behalf.



For
U.S. citizens who had a confirmed airline reservation out of Zamboanga City
last week, the Embassy has verified that airline companies have made
arrangements with the Philippine military to offer transportation to stranded
passengers holding Philippines Airlines (PAL) or Cebu Pacific tickets. 
Please contact your airline for further instructions.



 The
Embassy wishes to remind all U.S. citizens to remain vigilant and maintain an
appropriate level of personal security in all circumstances by reviewing your
personal safety plans; remaining aware of your surroundings, including local
events; and monitoring local news sources for updates.



 




 






Emergency Message to
U.S. Citizens



U.S. Embassy, Manila, Philippines



 



September 12, 2013



 



THE EMBASSY OF THE UNITED
STATES IS TRANSMITTING THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION AS A PUBLIC SERVICE TO U.S.
CITIZENS IN THE PHILIPPINES. PLEASE DISSEMINATE THIS MESSAGE TO ALL U.S.
CITIZENS IN YOUR ORGANIZATION OR NEIGHBORHOOD.



THANK YOU.



 



Threat Against Foreigners in Southern Mindanao



The U.S. Embassy wishes to alert U.S. citizens that a
credible threat against foreigners has been identified in southern
Mindanao.  Individuals associated with known extremist groups are believed
to have been conducting surveillance on public shopping malls and western-based
cafés in the area, as possible targets of interest. 




 



Extremists may elect to use conventional or non-conventional
weapons, and target both official and private interests.  Examples of such
targets include high-profile sporting events, residential areas, business
offices, hotels, clubs, restaurants, places of worship, schools, public areas,
and other destinations frequented by foreigners.



 



As a result, the Embassy advises all U.S. citizens residing
in the southern Mindanao area to exercise extreme caution and re-evaluate their
personal safety situation.  The Embassy strongly reiterates its
recommendation that U.S. citizens exercise extreme caution when travelling to
Mindanao and to keep personal safety and security in mind during any stay in
Mindanao.  For more information on security conditions in Mindanao, please
refer to the July 4, 2013 Travel Warning for the Philippines that is posted on
our web site, http://manila.usembassy.gov/tw7513.html.




 



The Embassy wishes to remind all U.S. citizens to remain
vigilant and maintain an appropriate level of personal security in all
circumstances by reviewing your personal safety plans; remaining aware of your
surroundings, including local events; and monitoring local news sources for
updates.



 



_




 


The following news article will
explain the attacks on the power grid.




 


http://www.mb.com.ph/mnlf-braces-for-last-stand/





 


I
will keep you updated if I can.




 


BILL  LUDJIN

This just came:
 
 
 
Emergency Message to U.S. Citizens
U.S. Embassy, Manila, Philippines
September 27, 2013
 
THE EMBASSY OF THE UNITED STATES IS TRANSMITTING THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION AS A PUBLIC SERVICE TO U.S. CITIZENS IN THE PHILIPPINES.  PLEASE DISSEMINATE THIS MESSAGE TO ALL U.S. CITIZENS IN YOUR ORGANIZATION OR NEIGHBORHOOD.  THANK YOU.
 
Updated Worldwide Caution
 
The U.S. Embassy wishes to advise all U.S. citizens that the Department of State issued an updated Worldwide Caution on September 25, 2013. 
The Department of State has issued this Worldwide Caution to update information on the continuing threat of terrorist actions and violence against U.S. citizens and interests throughout the world. U.S. citizens are reminded to maintain a high level of vigilance and to take appropriate steps to increase their security awareness. This replaces the Worldwide Caution dated February 19, 2013, to provide updated information on security threats and terrorist activities worldwide.
The Department of State remains concerned about the continued threat of terrorist attacks, demonstrations, and other violent actions against U.S. citizens and interests overseas. Current information suggests that al-Qa’ida, its affiliated organizations, and other terrorist groups continue to plan terrorist attacks against U.S. interests in multiple regions, including Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. These attacks may employ a wide variety of tactics including suicide operations, assassinations, kidnappings, hijackings, and bombings.
The full text of the message can be found on the Department of State web site at http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_t ... _4787.html.  The message can also be found on the Embassy web site at http://manila.usembassy.gov/wwwha008.html.
The Embassy wishes to remind all U.S. citizens to remain vigilant and maintain an appropriate level of personal security in all circumstances by reviewing your personal safety plans; remaining aware of your surroundings, including local events; and monitoring local news sources for updates. 

If it makes you feel better there are more than a few similar groups right here Stateside.
You should check out some of the leadership appointments lately, especially within DHS.

But don't you worry there Billy. Those training camps? Well, you were the first one to claim they don't exist, remember?
All the rest is just right wing whacko crazy talk I'm sure.

But if I were you I'd carry a few extra mags. You know, just in case.
"Have the proper tools and be ready to use them. Keep the sheep safe."-  Lt. Col. Dave Grossman 

Well
Coppee, There may be such training camps in the US just as there are
survivalist camps. What I had questioned was the credibility of your sources
and your apparent disregard for such matters as long as the sources you were
using seemed to justify your suspicions.




 


In
the case of Muslims in Mindanao, these are not just training camps housing a
few radicals, these are large armed groups that have been waging war on and off
with the Philippine government for more than forty years and they haven’t been
holy wars. The term “jihad” in the sense that it is used in the war on terror
is seldom heard here. These battles are about territory and self-governance -
not religion. Of course, they read the news and I suspect that the poison gas
claim mentioned in the news article I posted a link to was propaganda spawned
by the Syrian situation. The only Al Qaeda linked group - the Abu Sayaf - is
thought to be a small group of maybe a couple of hundred but they behave more
like bandits than rebels. the MILF is thought to have 12,000 men with arms. I
haven’t heard estimates of the size of the other groups but they seemingly
represent sizeable numbers of people.




 


The
developments in South East Asia ought to be of great interest to Americans. America
not only has economic interests there but mutual defense treaties as well. The
waters between China and its Asian neighbors are in dispute not only with Japan
but also with the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and others. These waters are not
only included as major trade routes but also are thought to be rich in oil and
other resources. I don’t think that there is much chance of the U.S. being
drawn into an internal Philippine conflict but if the territorial waters
disputes erupt into hostilities, that’s another matter. Blocking of shipping
lanes or armed confrontations could easily trigger a new crises with
unpredictable consequences. America and the Philippines have a mutual defense
treaty. It’s clearly a lopsided treaty but, in a “my daddy can beat up your
daddy” scenario, some hot head in Manila could easily create an out of control
situation. It’s not always clear who fired first in a confrontation.




 


The
power is again out as I type this and I don’t know whether that in any way is
due to rebel activity. All is otherwise seemingly quiet in Mindanao at east
where I live but it’s difficult to know what might be going on. There has been
a flurry of text messages floating around about threatened hostilities but
these are often just rumors and need to be taken with a grain of salt.




 


BILL 
LUDJIN

I dont know about others PCs but I believe it has been taken down, the link goes to Redflag news , but will not show anything now.
Ron

60 Minutes does not report on "Phony Scandals" so this must not have been on 60 minutes.?Maybe 60 minutes is phony?http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/07 ... azi-probe/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/ ... d_irs.htmlRon
btw, Thank God Hilary's name or Barack's was not mentioned "one single time" in the phony 60 minutes report!But I have to ask" At this point what difference does it make?" ( I ask this while bouncing up and down in my chair and flinging my arms around and trying to look distraught!)

Ron, you mean to say the people in Benghazi weren't murdered by a Youtube video after all?

I guess those bloody palm prints weren't all that indicative of death by mere smoke inhalation? Could it be Soetoro and Clinton lied (again)?

Even our European friends are starting to catch on now that their cell phones are illegally being monitored by the most "progressive" of all US presidents....

I would love it if Angela Merkel were to send over her PANZERGRENADIERS to kick the rear end of our beloved Kenyan-in-Chief.
SURPRISE: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... s-ago.html

The U.S. has long described Pakistan as an ally. I have never thought so as all the reports in the news would lead one to think that Pakistan is an unstable haven for the Taliban and Al Qaeda. My impression is that our policy toward Pakistan and India is based on the realization that they both have nuclear weapons and are natural enemies. The only way we have for trying to keep them in check is to pretend that they are both our friends and to try and play the role of a big brother mediator. I think that we are only kidding ourselves and possibly the American public with that kind of policy. It is only their recognition that a nuclear conflict would leave them both severely hurt that has kept them at bay. That doesn't mean that Pakistan is not a threat indirectly however.
Their nuclear weapons are a marketable commodity. If American foreign policy continues to be void of credibility, others with money can take matters into their own hands and this report points to the possibilities:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24823846 
Without a credible leadership role, others with a "lead, follow, or get out of the way" mindset could easily decide to race for the mad button and that is an alarming concern.
BILL  LUDJIN