Conference Expansion Push 2011


Conference Expansion Push 2011

VTHokie
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11 Aug 2011, 21:58 #1

So here we are.... summer ending and practice beginning and the season is a-coming. Yet, suddenly rumors are heating up about the SEC and future expansion.... which is probably a near certainty.

What we have learned in the past week or so is that it has gone from Texas A&M being in position to listen if/when the SEC would come calling to an almost near certainty that A&M will be an SEC program in the next few years.

The main question is who else is there? Certainly the SEC isn't going to expand to 13. IMO, this is the only thing holding up A&M's invite.

Virginia Tech is one of the main programs being thrown out... and IMO, for good reason. While the Hokies do have a small (and difficult to expand) stadium, they do have a rabid fanbase, a solid (though recently mellowing) travelling base, very good facilities.... and the most important thing, a new market. VT would bring not just the Western Virginia... but would essentially add a second Mid-Atlantic program to the SEC, officially making the Mid-Atlantic SEC territory. The DC area in particular has a VERY large number of alums from VT (which is a large land grant university with an enrollment north of 30K). I shudder to think about what the VT program could become with SEC membership. It would be the only in-state SEC option in one of the nation's most underrated recruiting grounds. Not to mention that North Carolina has a very large number of recruits as well.

The problem with VT however is that IMO, it is very, VERY unlikely that the Hokie athletic department would even accept the invitation to join. The ACC in itself is also very much an academic league and large quantities of money come into the university's academic side by way of ACC membership. While the athletic dept may salivate at the opportunity to jump, I think the high brass would be very reluctant and would not want to budge.

More likely (after VT's private rejection of the SEC's private offer), the SEC will go after Clemson or Florida State. Florida would fight FSU's entry, but the addition of a new serious rivalry to the league would be too much for the rest of the league to pass up. Clemson will also be discussed and will seriously be in the mix if the league goes 16.... with Oklahoma being the Western addition.

Then the SEC doesn't even have to reshuffle divisions. Simply add ATM and OU to the West. Add FSU and Clemson to the East.

As for what will happen after that, I see the Big 12 collapsing anyway. Look for Pitt and Syracuse (in the ACC's top 3 in the first round of expansion, until UVA blocked any ACC expansion that did not include VT) to get the replacement invites.


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12 Aug 2011, 04:21 #2

Damn Kentucky would block Louisville from ever being the SEC.. Then again I'm not too disappointed in having a much easier road to a BCS bowl, being in the best basketball conference, and not being associated with a conference that is chalked full of cheaters

Per SI: Texas A&M is all but a given. Oklahoma would be next on their list. Following that they would be interested in Louisville/Clemson/Virginia Tech/Missouri. With the article stating the Louisville/Clemson would be at the top of the list and Virginia Tech/Missouri as secondary considerations

http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-footba ... g-secs-way

I just don't see UK or South Carolina being ok with the inclusion of Louisville or Clemson.

I would think Missouri would be more likely to be in the SEC in the future, with most of the same reasons VTHokie gave as reasons against VT joining.

Missouri's stadium holds 71,000. Clemson's holds 80,000. Louisville's holds 55,000. Louisville's stadium is easily expandable, they just finished an expansion last season.

It, pretty much, comes down to which program is more attractive. Depending on how quickly they want to expand. If they want to expand with 2 teams this season or next, I believe that Missouri is the most likely candidate to go with Texas A&M. This is assuming that South Carolina tries to block Clemson. If it is a few seasons I believe that Louisville or Clemson is more likely.

If I was the SEC I would go after Virginia Tech before Louisville/Clemson/Missouri. I would want the Virginia television market. They already have UK for Kentucky's market (I see sites talking about adding Louisville as the 49th biggest market in the country, but most of UK's games are on here aswell). With South Carolina you already gett SC's market. With the addition of Texas A&M you are already getting a majority of Texas and, most likely, can cross over into Missouri.

Virginia Tech gives you a brand new market.
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12 Aug 2011, 13:50 #3

From what I hear, Aggy to SEC is just waiting on a formal announcement. I do think it is a good move for them, but I think their fans aren't quite in touch with reality. They will make good money and be in many marquee games....but they will be very much middle of the pack in the SEC. I see them being along the lines of a South Carolina. Sure they'll field some good teams, but it's incredibly tough to get over the hump and challenge for the conference (and therefore national) title.

I cannot stand the idea of four sixteen team superconferences. For one, it makes everything pretty retarded, geographically. Second, it'll be much harder for genuine rivalries to develop. And finally, unless a playoff system were to arise, this is going to very much increase the gap between the "BCS" superconferences and all the rest. There are some fringe teams that are going to get left out of the big boy party. Teams like Maryland, Louisville, Rutgers, Kansas, Kansas State, and unfortunately, Texas Tech just to name a few. Unless we're part of a Pac16 package, we're screwed.

Texas is going to be the wildcard in the coming years. With their TV deal, they might have burned bridges with the Pac1X, and the Big10(12) already has a network set up, plus Nebraska will hang themselves in their closet if UT joined. If the superconference setup happens, UT going independent isn't likely. My guess is after aggy leaves, UT does not allow the Big12(9) to expand and we limp along for another season or two until the tipping point when UT either goes indy (if the political climate of CFB allows it at the time), goes to the Big10+, or is part of a Pac 16 expansion with OU, OSU, and TTU.

I like that Tech is nutting up and resisting the Longhorn Network (ESPN)'s attempt at bullying us into playing nice, but I think we'll cave pretty soon and bend back over. Our chancellor is pretty adamant and shows some brass ones, so anything can happen, but I've been around a while and know how it works. I will say this, though - The LHN is a big moneymaker, but it's also burning bridges rapidly for UT.
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VTHokie
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12 Aug 2011, 22:22 #4

Looks like Florida State is rapidly emerging as the second team in this round of expansion. IMO, Florida's approval is all that is needed here, and it looks more and more like they'd be willing.

Man.... if this happens and there's a round of expansion to 16, that VT is on that train to the SEC.... but I have a feeling that that won't happen and that Clemson would be the eastern SEC addition.

I think what you're going to see is three 16 team super-conferences (SEC, Big 16 (Big 10), and Pac-16), three "buffer" conferences (ACC, Big 12, MWC), and three mid-majors (CUSA, MAC, SBC). Most of the mid-major conferences will consist of current MAC/SBC teams and a few 1-AA teams who will make the leap to 1-A ball. I also wouldn't be shocked to see some of (if not all of) the "mid-major" conferences drop to a new "1-AA" classification which would also include the current high FCS level conferences (CAA/Big Sky) and then a 1-AAA which would include the low level FCS schools.


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16 Aug 2011, 04:06 #5

I don't like the idea of having just a few mega conferences, and I don't like the trend towards conference TV networks either.

I don't think Texas will go independent. I think Big 12 expansion depends on if BYU is willing to reconsider going independent after a couple of years. Notre Dame is a 100 to 1 longshot, and New Mexico, TCU, Houston, Memphis, those guys ain't going to cut it by themselves (one of them plus ND or BYU might work out). But you gotta get enough compensation or else it's not worth it to split the money into two extra piles.

Even though A&M might still end up in the SEC, the case of premature ejaculation on the part of the Aggies was still pretty funny.
Unless we're part of a Pac16 package, we're screwed.
If A&M goes SEC and then the Big 12 falls apart, there's a good chance Texas and Oklahoma stay together, and would probably take Texas Tech and Okie State with them.
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VTHokie
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23 Aug 2011, 15:45 #6

As the conference expansion talk simmers, it appears talks are still ongoing with Texas A&M. Inevitably, they will be jumping ship, it's just a matter of when. Word I'm hearing still is that VT will refuse a jump to the SEC even if offered... but VT seems to be a backburner idea anyways.

Not looking forward to a VT in a watered-down ACC though. Hopefully FSU and Clemson stay put though, but if offered, I'm not holding my breath.


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23 Aug 2011, 19:43 #7

I think aggy is full of s**t. I have little doubt that they'll end up in the SEC eventually, but I think they're getting WAY ahead of themselves, and here's why:

1) Time is ticking. They've got a week to push this crap through or it disappears until next offseason because everyone will be focused on actual football in 9 days.

2) Invited? The SEC could just be covering their bases, but rejecting aggy for a second time (this time publically) is interesting. The aggy "insiders" claim they have an invite, but the aggy president says no.

3) 13 teams? This doesn't make a bit of logical sense. The SEC isn't going to unbalance the divisions or ditch the divisions and CCG just for aggy. Until they get 1 or 3 others to come along, it ain't happening. Odd numbers don't split.

4) Why would the SEC take this risk? They're the undisputed top conference. I highly doubt they'll shove a domino to add one team, with the possible effect being a superconference Pac-16 that potentially jeopardizes their top conference status.

5) The SEC's meeting. Either they're straight-up lying about their meeting with the current programs (no comment would seemingly be the play if they really were expanding), or the members really aren't big on adding aggy at this present time.

Again, I think aggy ends up in the SEC eventually. Just not yet. I doubt the SEC makes the first move in the next round of realignment. I figure they have a plan in place to take some combination of four teams out of FSU, A&M, Clemson, Virginia Tech, or Miami (though their stock just took a huge hit), and that all the respective schools are already on board for when the next round of realignment happens.

Slive managed to help weaken a competing conference by using aggy as a pawn the last go-round without changing a thing in their structure while helping torpedo the Pac-16 threat, so there's a good chance that this is again the case. They want to increase bad blood in the Big XII and aggy is a catalyst of sorts for that. If the Big XII implodes and the teams end up splitting apart, the SEC wins big. Which may have been why they're apparently backing off currently.

With the Longhorn Network struggling, UT going Indy is less of a possibility, and the Pac-16 with UT/OU/OkSt/TTU seems like it's back on the table a bit. So, IMO, the SEC is easing off for the time being. My theory is that the SEC wants one of the four teams above to get frustrated and pull a Nebraska WITHOUT others coming along. So they're increasing unrest by entertaining aggy.

I could be totally off about all this, but that's my read of the situation.


In response to being recruited as a DB by UT, Michael Crabtree said, "I don't care that you're Texas. I score touchdowns. That's what I do."

41 touchdowns later, it appears he was right.
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24 Aug 2011, 07:28 #8

Texas going independent is just a talking point for fans and journalists. It's extremely unlikely since neither our AD and our President seem to be in favor of it.

Frankly I think the Big 12 is ok as it is. Sure, it's not awesome, but I don't see the point of all the rush. Why not let things be for a few years and see if things works out? The whole "We need out because the Big 12 is collapsing!" cry from A&M (and occasionally Missouri) is silly - it wouldn't be collapsing if you two would shut up and just let the 2011-2012 season play out.
I figure they have a plan in place to take some combination of four teams out of FSU, A&M, Clemson, Virginia Tech, or Miami (though their stock just took a huge hit)
A huge hit? This is the SEC we're talking about; Miami might have leaked this information on purpose just to solidify their invite.

I don't really like like the idea of the Pac-16 for several reasons. Screw ubermega-conferences, screw California (the state not the school) (no actually, screw the school too), screw the false hopes of not having to deal with those jackass CU fans any more, and screw losing affordable road trips. That said, anything that keeps us playing Tech, OU, and to a lesser extent Okie State even, isn't horrible I guess. But I want to keep playing A&M every year, despite the "good riddance" attitude of a lot of the UT fanbase. But A&M seems to not care about continuing the rivalry game and want to do their best to cancel it, and you know the moment that happens, they'll suddenly start caring again and blaming Texas for cancelling the game.

I don't get it. I was fine with Nebraska leaving. I'd rather them have stayed but they had every right to do what they thought was best for themselves. A&M has every right to do what's best for themselves - although I really hope that this doesn't including cancelling the yearly matchup. But Texas does what's best for ourselves and the Ags and Huskers get indignant and butt-hurt about it. It's funny because Oklahoma has remained pretty quiet through the whole thing - they are still in a great position as a program, and I hate to say it, but real winners don't need to shake things up, OU can just keep on quietly positioning themselves to dominate the conference and the onus is still on the rest of us to catch up.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COLLEGE STATION, TEXAS, AUG 23, 2011. Texas A&M has had enough. They officially will no longer will consider "t.u." - short for "texas university" - to be their main rivals. "That school in Austin no longer even exists as far as we are concerned", said Bill Byrne, "We have a standing offer from the SEC, but we will play in the Big 12 for the 2011 season - a conference that includes plenty of other quality football teams within our state to beat the hell out of while whooping and humping it. All this business with the LHN has led us to officially disown our friends in the capitol city. We will never reference them again from here on out."

Although the specific schools went unnamed, clearly Byrne could only have been referring to Baylor and Texas Tech. Head Coach Mike Sherman wasted no time scheduling extra yell practices for the A&M fanbase "Looks like we'll need additional practice to make sure our fans are ready to sing about 'lubbock university' and 'university baylor' from here on out." Already, official documents from the University's Board of Regents have been leaked, making references to "l.u." and "u.b."

In light of these decisions, A&M officials have also decided to alter the lyrics of the official A&M fight song, "The Aggie War Hymn."

Hullabaloo, caneck caneck
Hullabaloo, caneck caneck

Goodbye you celibate sober baaaa-aptists
Farewell to gold and to puke green

Hello to uptight fundamentalists
You are now our main rivalry

Since the Big 12 conference was started
You've never finished in the top 10 (neither has A&M!)

So, goodbye to dancing 'cause it's sinful
We’re gonna hate baylor to
Chigaroogarem, Chigaroogarem
Bears suck, out of luck! Texas A&M

Hullabaloo, screw Tech screw Tech
Hullabaloo, screw Tech screw Tech

Goodbye to lubbock university
So long to the red and the bla-aa-ack

Hello to scary flying tortillas
I'd rather eat little debbie snacks

We haven't forgotten your goal post attack
Back when you shut out our poor team (you’re so mean!)

So, goodbye to pirates with no sea nearby
We’re gonna squeeze our balls to
Chigaroogarem, Chigaroogarem
Guns up? What the f---? Texas A&M

Pull Zorro’s mask off
Pull Zorro’s mask off
Pull Zorro’s mask off
Off! Ay!

Zorro’s mask has fallen off
Zorro’s mask has fallen off
Zorro’s mask has fallen off
Off! Ay!
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Raider
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24 Aug 2011, 22:02 #9

Damn Stat, did you write that whole fake press release? Pretty good!
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29 Aug 2011, 21:42 #10

The press release yes. Part of the fake war hymn I improvised as well, but I stole part of it from an old hornfans.com thread.
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08 Sep 2011, 17:36 #11

Three interesting developments the past week.

1) The PAC-12 really wants OU and probably Texas as well, and possibly Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

2). I've heard a couple of radio reports that BYU is working on a deal to join the Big 12 next year so long as Texas and Oklahoma stay in the conference.

3). The big one - Baylor is trying to block A&M's move to the SEC. Makes sense since they (and probably Iowa State and Kansas State also at the very least) stand to lose millions if the Big 12 falls apart. Surprised nobody seemed to see this coming ahead of time, but this is going to be fun to sit back and watch. A&M fans are absolutely livid at Baylor right now - maybe my alternate war hymn isn't so inaccurate after all.
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VTHokie
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08 Sep 2011, 18:39 #12

Yep.. for Baylor (and to a lesser extent Iowa State and Kansas State), this could be the end of big time collegiate athletics. Noone else is going to want the Bears... hell the Big 12 didn't even want the Bears, they just got strong-armed into the conference.


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08 Sep 2011, 18:47 #13

Baylor conference-blocking aggy is funny....but sad.

I'm just waiting to see what OU does. They really hold the keys in this situation, IMO. If they're content with a re-worked Big12, then we'll add BYU and possibly others and do a blood oath and limp along for a while. But if they're wanting out then I think it'll hit the fan sooner (pun intended) rather than later. Best case is OU/OSU/UT/TTU to PAC. All I know is my team is basically swinging from UT's nuts hoping to get a seat at the table.
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Raider
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08 Sep 2011, 21:25 #14

Speaking of Baylor...


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Astro
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08 Sep 2011, 21:37 #15

Raider @ Sep 8 2011, 04:25 PM wrote: Speaking of Baylor...


:lol: :lol: :lol:
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VTHokie
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16 Sep 2011, 02:27 #16

So the sounds of things seem to indicate that the ACC will soon invite Pittsburgh and Syracuse. Can't say it's thrilling, but it keeps the basketball folks happy and Pitt isn't an awful program.

However, the interesting rumor is that Texas is clamoring for an ACC invite. Granted, I think it's a poker game to get a better offer from the Pac-12 and that is Texas's eventual destination. However, it is compelling to think about Texas being a member of the ACC. Rumor has it Texas Tech would be the 16th team. So with all the takl on here amongst myself and the other Texas contingent here... who ever would have thought we could possibly become conference rivals?

More likely though, as I mentioned, Texas goes to the Pac-12, Texas Tech joins the MWC (which will play the role of the Western version of the ACC) and the ACC ends up bringing Pitt, Cuse, and then two other programs (I'm thinking possibly WVU and Louisville).


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16 Sep 2011, 13:45 #17

VTHokie @ Sep 15 2011, 08:27 PM wrote: More likely though, as I mentioned, Texas goes to the Pac-12, Texas Tech joins the MWC
PLEASE no. That would be horrendous. Although I'm 94% confident that won't happen. We're pretty much UT's little ho and we'll tag along wherever they go. It sucks, but sometimes being someone's bitch can be advantageous.
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VTHokie
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16 Sep 2011, 14:27 #18

I just don't see where else Texas Tech is going to go. I don't see them being attractive to the Pac-12, though I guess it's possible. Texas is obviously playing the ACC like a fiddle and I hope we don't bite (but it looks like John Swofford, the commissioner of the ACC, is biting). Plus I can't see why Texas would even want that given that they are halfway across the country from the nearest ACC team (unless Texas Tech joins... at which point they'll be near each other and still a long haul from the next closest school).


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TexasTech
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16 Sep 2011, 16:07 #19

Tech has been keeping their cards pretty close to the vest throughout this whole thing. What comforts me is that UT's mouthpiece Chip Brown (remember, this was the guy who leaked the Pac-16 and manipulated realignment info from there to help UT make a play for the LHN and a weakened Big XII) has been going on the offensive against Tech lately. Which tells me that Tech to Pac-16 along with OU and Xerox St is a very real possibility. If Scott invites Tech, OU, and X$U, he forces UT's hand to either give up the LHN and join the fold or lose all their rivals. This UT to ACC thing is very likely just an attempt at leverage, but that's their only other viable option if we all bail.

For once, I think Tech is actually in a position of some power. Raider's right in saying that we've historically been their "ho", but if there really is Pac-12 interest in Tech, we've got an enticing opportunity to get away from playing against a stacked deck. We're no slouch in many respects as a potential Pac-16 member (and frankly, there aren't many better options), and inviting us would pressure UT on top of that. Joining UT in a lame pod in the ACC with the same inequalities that have killed the Big XII would be terrible for Tech, IMO, as we'd be faced with the same uncertainty in a few years when the ACC would start getting pissed at UT and would start entertaining better options. As long as they have the LHN, UT is conference cancer.

My big fear is that if we continue to buddy up with UT even a little, that a package of OU/X$U/KU/KSU to the Pac-16 could happen. In that case, we would be hoping to tag along with UT again, firmly back on bitch status. Ugh. Still, that would leave the Pac-16 without a foothold in TX, which would seemingly be undesirable. The latest rumors are TTU/OU/X$U/Mizzou to the Pac-16. I'm not sure I buy that, as I think Mizzou wants the Big Ten or SEC way before the Pac-16, so this may just be the Pac-16 throwing this out there as a counter-leverage to the UT-to-ACC crap. Another one that has been thrown out there, but seems ludicrous is TTU/OU/X$U/New Mexico. Unless UNM has compromising photos of Larry Scott and a stripper in Vegas or something, I don't see this happening at all. This sounds like someone picked a school that could be a geographical fit in the Pac-16 East and little more.

Regardless, I'm sick and tired of this crap. I should be enjoying football right now instead of worrying about this giant pissing contest everyday. It's ruining the season for me. What's more, 99.9% of this is pure conjecture from the blogsphere anyway, as the people who are actually privy to what's going on behind closed doors are numbered in double-digits at most. And even those people have agendas to flat out lie in many cases. It's exhausting to try and keep up with, but the potential ramifications are so huge that it's impossible not to. Whatever happens, I hope it happens sometime soon.


In response to being recruited as a DB by UT, Michael Crabtree said, "I don't care that you're Texas. I score touchdowns. That's what I do."

41 touchdowns later, it appears he was right.
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16 Sep 2011, 16:58 #20

New Mexico I think keeps getting mentioned because, like Missouri, they cover better TV markets than a lot of colleges. So there's some monetary potential there if they have the draw of being in a major conference.
Plus I can't see why Texas would even want that given that they are halfway across the country from the nearest ACC team
Yeah but the same is true of the PAC-12 and Big Ten also.
Joining UT in a lame pod in the ACC with the same inequalities that have killed the Big XII
The teams that have left or are most trying to leave the Big XII were the same ones who benefitted the most from those "inequalities".
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