Didi
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Didi
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Joined: October 22nd, 2013, 2:46 am

September 9th, 2017, 2:23 am #51

yeh same ol', with 5 that should not be there (JA,WT,YY,KS, JG) - shows how much thought is put into this at this opening stage.

and thx for putting it up, I had some formatting problems.

edit- to include JG as per nnyhav listing
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Didi
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Didi
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September 11th, 2017, 1:08 am #52

A female poet from Korea cannot be out of the question and Kim Nam-jo is probably the leading candidate in this respect.

(I think Park Wan-suh should have won it years ago, to have been the first Korean winner)
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redhead
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redhead
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Joined: August 13th, 2015, 5:14 pm

September 14th, 2017, 1:15 pm #53

Based on the odds so far, I'd say Atwood, Oz, Marias, Magris and Lianke are the most likely winners, especially because most leaks in recent years have come from the short list rather than the eventual winner. Magris and Marias would be my favorites from there, followed by Oz and Atwood. Lianke wouldn't be a debacle like last year, but I feel like a lot of his work isn't all that great and a lot of his fame comes more from his politics. I could see him being a compromise candidate, though.
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Didi
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Didi
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September 14th, 2017, 11:04 pm #54

I doubt they commit the intelligence resources to ascertain the shortlist at the opening stage. This prize makes little for them although they said they did get a reasonable return last year which is of no surprise. Leaks no doubt happen and they are reflected more on the betting by those privy to them, their impact on the profit algorithm and the resulting odds movements. I see little meaning in the opening list irrespective of the relative movements from last year inclusive of Atwood (who I do not think will win). There is also the standard and luring “false favourite” device and its variations that could potentially be in play. From those on the favourite list it is Marias that stands out only because of the late movement last year. In any case, I expect a woman to win this year and also expect that it will not be a North American nor any other English language writer.
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redhead
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redhead
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September 15th, 2017, 1:09 am #55

True, there are plenty of false flags. Then again, Mo Yan and Modiano both leaked at around the short list stage the years they won, and Tranströmer, Alexievich and Munro all had incredibly low odds to begin with the years they won, so even if a short list leak happened then nothing could've really been done about it. Much like with all Nobel betting, the opening odds changes could easily mean nothing, but a short list leak has happened enough where it's worthwhile to consider those changes imo
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Didi
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Didi
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September 15th, 2017, 1:54 am #56

You make a valid point red with that historical perspective.

With Atwood there have been strong rumours circulating all this year (inclusive of the period before shortlisting of the top 5 candidates), at least for her nomination:

http://globalnews.ca/news/3234587/marga ... trump-era/

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Didi
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September 18th, 2017, 8:17 pm #57

probably due for a Czech winner

Daniela Hodrova would surely have to be a contender
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redhead
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redhead
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September 19th, 2017, 1:07 am #58

Thanks for the name, Didi. I'll have to check her out. Did you ever read Seifert?

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Didi
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September 19th, 2017, 3:36 am #59

its been some time now, and it was an older translation than what you had read recently.
your post and Blos' previous one has prompted a need to revisit
Given their rich literary history the Czech's are due, one poet is not enough.
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kline19
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kline19
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September 19th, 2017, 10:04 pm #60

What about Bei Dao? I think he just came out with a new book.
The love hoarded all your life ... for the work, and his lips still moved silently over that last word - TR
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