Trump and Steel

Riley
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March 2nd, 2018, 6:26 am #1

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2018 ... plies.html

The steel industry employs A LOT of people in Hamilton, including my roommate and quite a few friends.
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xenon
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March 2nd, 2018, 7:44 am #2

It’ll affect jobs in the US as well. Steel and aluminum are basic raw inputs into much of the manufacturing base - makes “Made in America” more expensive.

That’s before we even get into the whole protectionism vs free trade side of things.
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jon-nyc
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March 2nd, 2018, 11:16 am #3

Market agrees this is stupidity. Zero chance that China doesn’t retaliate in painful ways.

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Jolly
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March 2nd, 2018, 12:31 pm #4

I see both sides of this.

Some countries are definitely dumping steel in the U.S. This artificially puts domestic steel producers out of business and that is a strategic problem for the country. No steel production is bad for the country.

OTOH, cheap steel means cheaper consumer goods and building materials. That means consumer and business dollars go further.

The question comes down to what is best for the country.
The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros
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Jolly
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March 2nd, 2018, 12:59 pm #5

Another thought...Would the media reaction be the same if a similar tariff policy had been proposed during the Obama Administration?
The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros
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Riley
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March 2nd, 2018, 1:09 pm #6

Jolly wrote:Another thought...Would the media reaction be the same if a similar tariff policy had been proposed during the Obama Administration?
Outside the US, yes probably.
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Mikhailoh
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March 2nd, 2018, 1:16 pm #7

In the long perspective I would rather have more expensive steel and a steel industry that could take us through a war.
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xenon
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March 2nd, 2018, 3:15 pm #8

Now you all know I’m not a fan of Trump. I think he’s not intelligent and thoughtful in the way you need someone in his position to be. He tweeted this this morning:
wrote:When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy!
Do these sound like the words of someone who understands what he’s talking about? Or is he just doing some political theater?
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Copper
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March 2nd, 2018, 6:08 pm #9


It is nice to have a president that likes the United States.

The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy
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jon-nyc
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March 2nd, 2018, 6:14 pm #10

xenon wrote:Now you all know I’m not a fan of Trump. I think he’s not intelligent and thoughtful in the way you need someone in his position to be. He tweeted this this morning:
wrote:When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy!
Do these sound like the words of someone who understands what he’s talking about? Or is he just doing some political theater?
The charitable read would be that he has a different definition of ‘winning’ than you or I. Or most economists, for that matter.


His base would follow him into autarky, I suspect. But the markets wouldn’t, and that may knock sense into him at some point.
Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right.
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Copper
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March 2nd, 2018, 6:17 pm #11


The markets haven't had much trouble following him for the last year and a half.

I hope it will be a while before we get to the point where sense needs to be knocked in.

The Confederate soldier was peculiar in that he was ever ready to fight, but never ready to submit to the routine duty and discipline of the camp or the march. The soldiers were determined to be soldiers after their own notions, and do their duty, for the love of it, as they thought best. Carlton McCarthy
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Jolly
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March 2nd, 2018, 6:32 pm #12

jon-nyc wrote:
xenon wrote:Now you all know I’m not a fan of Trump. I think he’s not intelligent and thoughtful in the way you need someone in his position to be. He tweeted this this morning:
wrote:When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy!
Do these sound like the words of someone who understands what he’s talking about? Or is he just doing some political theater?
The charitable read would be that he has a different definition of ‘winning’ than you or I. Or most economists, for that matter.


His base would follow him into autarky, I suspect. But the markets wouldn’t, and that may knock sense into him at some point.
He's playing chess, you're playing checkers.

What does any negotiator do, when they start to strike a deal?
The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros
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jon-nyc
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March 2nd, 2018, 6:35 pm #13

I’m actually not playing at all.

Clowns to the left of me, jokers to the right.
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Jolly
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March 2nd, 2018, 6:35 pm #14

jon-nyc wrote:I’m actually not playing at all.
if you're in the market, you're playing.
The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros
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xenon
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March 2nd, 2018, 6:41 pm #15

Jolly wrote:
jon-nyc wrote:
xenon wrote:Now you all know I’m not a fan of Trump. I think he’s not intelligent and thoughtful in the way you need someone in his position to be. He tweeted this this morning:
wrote:When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy!
Do these sound like the words of someone who understands what he’s talking about? Or is he just doing some political theater?
The charitable read would be that he has a different definition of ‘winning’ than you or I. Or most economists, for that matter.


His base would follow him into autarky, I suspect. But the markets wouldn’t, and that may knock sense into him at some point.
He's playing chess, you're playing checkers.

What does any negotiator do, when they start to strike a deal?
I’ve heard the 4D chess stuff a lot. Don’t buy it for a minute. He’s been saying this stuff since he 80s in the same form. Swap out Japan for China now.
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jon-nyc
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March 2nd, 2018, 6:52 pm #16

I think the reason that argument is so popular is it isn't falsifiable and there's no limit to the stupidity it can excuse. And it may even occasionally turn out to be true.
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Luke's Dad
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March 2nd, 2018, 7:06 pm #17

Who is he trying to have a trade war with? China? The deficit is a hell of a lot more than 100 Billion, and they represent under 2% of our steel imports. Canada? Mexico? Brazil? Those are the companies that send us over 50% of our steel imports combined. That's who this will affect.
The problem with having an open mind is that people keep trying to put things in it.
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Jolly
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March 2nd, 2018, 7:13 pm #18

Luke's Dad wrote:Who is he trying to have a trade war with? China? The deficit is a hell of a lot more than 100 Billion, and they represent under 2% of our steel imports. Canada? Mexico? Brazil? Those are the companies that send us over 50% of our steel imports combined. That's who this will affect.
China, about 4% IIRC.

The thing that concerns me most, is the ability to make steel. Great Britain was once one of the finest producers of steel in the world. Now, if they had to build a ship, they probably couldn't do it with indigenous steel. For a nation which depends upon shipping for many things, that says a lot...
The main obstacle to a stable and just world order is the United States.- George Soros
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jon-nyc
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March 2nd, 2018, 7:14 pm #19

wrote:When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win. Example, when we are down $100 billion with a certain country and they get cute, don’t trade anymore-we win big. It’s easy!
Yeah, we have all this power over China.

Until they show up a little late to our next Treasury auction...
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Klaus
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March 2nd, 2018, 7:26 pm #20

Europe's steel is not made in an unfair way or subsidised. If there will be import taxes just because American steel companies are not competitive, then that's not good for anyone, especially not the US.
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