OAA Boys Soccer: Fall 2016 Alpha-Omega Rankings

tsnet
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4:06 PM - Sep 03, 2016 #1

Now that MLive no longer has forums, I'll cross-post this here every week.
OAA Boys Soccer: Alpha-Omega Report #1
[22 of 23 teams eligible]
§ Spectacular Six (David Wilson Performance Ratings)

See also: Unofficial OAA Boys Soccer Rankings (Fall 2016)
*=OAA White Division \ #=OAA Blue Division
                        W  L  T                        -  -  -  1  Athens-Troy        5  1  0  770 [#5-D1]  2 *N Farmington       3  1  1  682  3  Rochester          4  0  1  627  4  Stoney Creek       3  2  1  605 [#19-D1]  5  Berkley            3  1  3  595  6 *Oxford             4  3  0  592
For 77 total games:» Top Team: Troy Athens (Red)» Top White Team: #2 North Farmington» Top Blue Team: #13 Groves (1-2-0, 505 rating)» Omega Team: #22 Hazel Park (0-3-0, 183.918 rating)» Ratings by Division: Red 607; White 509; Blue 318.» Non-OAA Teams are 16-23-8 with a combined 509 rating.» Home Team Advantage: +0.35 goals
§ David Rothman FACT Ratings
For 30 games» Top Team: Farmington (1-0-0 Intra-OAA; 3.57 LOGIT)» Least Likely Result: Stoney Creek 4, Lake Orion 0 (18.9% unlikely)» Margin of Victory: 2.2 goals; Standard Deviation: 2.074» Margin ± Std. Dev: 1 to 4 goals» Estimated % Error: 1.23%### 30 ###
Last edited by tsnet on 4:50 PM - Sep 10, 2016, edited 2 times in total.
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4:50 PM - Sep 10, 2016 #2

OAA Boys Soccer: Alpha-Omega Report #2
[All teams eligible]
§ Spectacular Six (David Wilson Performance Ratings)

See also: Unofficial OAA Boys Soccer Rankings (Fall 2016)
*=OAA White Division \ #=OAA Blue Division
                        W  L  T                        -  -  -  1  Athens-Troy        7  1  0  764 [#7-D1]  2  Clarkston          5  2  1  639 [#8-D1]  3  Stoney Creek       6  3  2  622 [#18-D1]  4  Rochester          4  1  2  613  5  Adams              5  2  3  611 [#2-D1]  6  Troy               2  1  2  599For 106 total games:» Top Team: Troy Athens (Red)» Top White Team: #8 Avondale (6-1-2; 576 rating)» Top Blue Team: #11 Groves (2-3-0, 499 rating)» Omega Team: #23 Oak Park (0-1-0, 126 rating)» Ratings by Division: Red 620; White 465; Blue 339.» Non-OAA Teams are 20-28-10 with a combined 511 rating.» Home Team Advantage: +0.444 goals» 92.2% games reported (106 of 115)§ David Rothman FACT Ratings
For 48 games:» Top Team: Athens-Troy (5-0-0 Intra-OAA; 4.14 LOGIT)» Least Likely Result: Rochester 1, Adams 0 (30.7% unlikely)» Margin of Victory: 2.375 goals» Standard Deviation: 2.007 goals» Margin ± Std. Dev: 1 to 4 goals» Estimated % Error: 4.65%### 30 ###
Last edited by tsnet on 1:29 AM - Sep 14, 2016, edited 3 times in total.
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3:14 PM - Sep 17, 2016 #3

OAA Boys Soccer: Alpha-Omega Report #3
§ Spectacular Six (David Wilson Performance Ratings)
*=OAA White Division \ #=OAA Blue Division
                        W  L  T                        -  -  -  1  Athens-Troy        9  1  1  674 [#7-D1]  2  Adams              7  3  3  635 [#4-D1]  3  Rochester          5  1  3  617  4  Stoney Creek       7  3  3  599 [#20-D1]  5  Clarkston          5  3  2  595 [#11-D1]  6 *Avondale           8  1  2  594 [#4-D2]For 144 total games:» Top Team: Troy Athens (Red)» Top White Team: #6 Avondale» Top Blue Team: #13 Farmington (3-3-0, 494 rating)» Omega Team: #23 Oak Park (0-1-0, 142 rating)» Ratings by Division: Red 608; White 485; Blue 341.» Non-OAA Teams are 30-36-14 with a combined 507 rating.» Home Team Advantage: +0.438 goals» 96% games reported (144 of 150)§ David Rothman FACT Ratings
For 64 games:» Top Team: Athens-Troy (5-0-1 Intra-OAA; 2.85 LOGIT)» Least Likely Result: Seaholm 5, Groves 2 (43.4% unlikely)» Margin of Victory: 2.25 goals» Standard Deviation: 2.063 goals» Margin ± Std. Dev: 1 to 4 goals» Estimated % Error: 1.82%### 30 ###
Last edited by tsnet on 7:48 PM - Sep 20, 2016, edited 1 time in total.
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9:14 PM - Sep 24, 2016 #4

OAA Boys Soccer: Alpha-Omega Report #4
§ Spectacular Six (David Wilson Performance Ratings)
*=OAA White Division \ #=OAA Blue Division
                        W  L  T                        -  -  -  1  Athens-Troy        9  1  2  647 [#6-D1]  2  Adams              9  3  4  636 [#4-D1]  3  Stoney Creek       8  3  3  593 [#20-D1]  4 *Avondale          10  1  2  591 [#4-D2]  5  Rochester          6  2  3  590  6  Troy               4  4  5  575For 179 total games:» Top Team: Troy Athens (Red)» Top White Team: #4 Avondale» Top Blue Team: #12 Farmington (4-3-0, 501 rating)» Omega Team: #23 Oak Park (0-3-0, 148 rating)» Ratings by Division: Red 590; White 492; Blue 344.» Non-OAA Teams are 38-41-16 with a combined 507 rating.» Home Team Advantage: +0.336 goals» 95.2% games reported (179 of 188)§ David Rothman FACT Ratings
For 84 games:» Top Team: Athens-Troy (5-0-2 Intra-OAA; 2.62 LOGIT)» Least Likely Result: Rochester 1, Adams 0 (47.6% unlikely)» Margin of Victory: 2.583 goals» Standard Deviation: 2.319 goals» Margin ± Std. Dev: 1 to 4 goals» Estimated % Error: 0.83%### 30 ###
Last edited by tsnet on 10:24 PM - Sep 26, 2016, edited 1 time in total.
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4:53 PM - Oct 01, 2016 #5

OAA Boys Soccer: Alpha-Omega Report #5
§ Spectacular Six (David Wilson Performance Ratings)
*=OAA White Division \ #=OAA Blue Division
                        W  L  T                        -  -  -  1  Athens-Troy       11  2  2  626 [#8-D1]  2  Adams             10  4  4  616 [#7-D1]  3 *Avondale          12  1  2  602 [#3-D2]  4  Rochester          8  2  4  600 [#20-D1]  5  Stoney Creek      10  3  3  599 [#13-D1]  6  Clarkston          7  6  3  566For 208 total games:» Top Team: Troy Athens (Red)» Top White Team: #3 Avondale» Top Blue Team: #15 Groves (6-7-0, 472 rating)» Omega Team: #23 Oak Park (0-3-0, 216 rating)» Ratings by Division: Red 582; White 491; Blue 367.» Non-OAA Teams are 41-49-17 with a combined 506 rating.» Home Team Advantage: +0.414 goal» 95.4% games reported (208 of  218)§ David Rothman FACT Ratings
For 101 games:» Top Team: Avondale (7-0-2 Intra-OAA; 2.04 LOGIT)» Least Likely Result: Southfield A/T 3, Farmington 2 (54.4% unlikely)» Margin of Victory: 2.396 goals» Standard Deviation: 2.214 goals» Margin ± Std. Dev: 1 to 4 goals» Estimated % Error: 3.89%### 30 ###
Last edited by tsnet on 11:53 PM - Oct 16, 2016, edited 2 times in total.
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7:54 PM - Oct 08, 2016 #6

OAA Boys Soccer: Alpha-Omega Report #6
§ Spectacular Six (David Wilson Performance Ratings)
*=OAA White Division \ #=OAA Blue Division
                        W  L  T                        -  -  -  1  Athens-Troy       13  2  2  633   [#4-D1]  2  Adams             11  4  4  619   [#5-D1]  3  Stoney Creek      12  3  4  613   [#12-D1]  4  Rochester         10  3  4  595.1  5 *Avondale          12  1  4  594.6 [#3-D2]  6  Clarkston          7  6  3  569For 208 total games:» Top Team: Troy Athens (Red)» Top White Team: #5 Avondale» Top Blue Team: #15 Groves (8-8-0, 481 rating)» Omega Team: #23 Oak Park (0-4-0, 231 rating)» Ratings by Division: Red 586; White 505; Blue 376.» Non-OAA Teams are 43-56-19 with a combined 502 rating.» Home Team Advantage: +0.572 goal» 96.4% games reported (238 of  247)§ David Rothman FACT Ratings
Current co-leaders:
  RANK   TEAM          DIVISION   LOGIT  PCT.  RRE   PF  PA  W  L T     1 Adams             MHSAA-1    1.86  .746  .827  24   4  9  2 1    2 Athens-Troy       MHSAA-1    1.79  .752  .819  17   3  7  1 2    3 Stoney Creek      MHSAA-1    1.68  .655  .806  22  11  6  2 3
For 120 games:» Least Likely Result: Farmington 2, Seaholm 1 (61.2% unlikely)» Average Margin of Victory: 2.358 goals» Standard Deviation: 2.172 goals» Margin ± Std. Dev: 1 to 4 goals» Estimated Std. Dev: 2.2» Estimated % Error: 1.27%### 30 ###
Last edited by tsnet on 11:52 PM - Oct 16, 2016, edited 3 times in total.
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11:51 PM - Oct 16, 2016 #7

OAA Boys Soccer: Alpha-Omega Report #7
§ Spectacular Six (David Wilson Performance Ratings)
*=OAA White Division \ #=OAA Blue Division
                        W  L  T                        -  -  -  1  Adams             12  4  4  631 [#5-D1]  2  Stoney Creek      13  3  4  620 [#12-D1]  3  Athens-Troy       13  4  2  618 [#6-D1]  4 *Avondale          13  1  4  609 [#3-D2]  5  Rochester         10  3  5  595  6  Troy               8  5  6  576For 265 total games:» Top Team: Adams (Red)» Top White Team: #4 Avondale» Top Blue Team: #15 Groves (8-8-1, 483 rating)» Omega Team: #23 Oak Park (0-5-0, 251 rating)» Ratings by Division: Red 589; White 509; Blue 384.» Non-OAA Teams are 50-61-20 with a combined 500 rating.» Home Team Advantage: +0.603 goal» 96.0% games reported (265 of  276)§ David Rothman FACT Ratings
Current co-leaders:
  RANK   TEAM          DIVISION   LOGIT  PCT.  RRE   PF  PA  W  L T     1 Adams             MHSAA-1    2.06  .759  .846  26   4 10  2 1    2 Avondale          MHSAA-2    1.80  .797  .819  31   5  8  0 4
For 133 games:» Least Likely Result: Southfield A/T 3, Farmington 2 (58.6% unlikely)» Average Margin of Victory: 2.323 goals» Standard Deviation: 2.138 goals» Margin ± Std. Dev: 1 to 4 goals» Estimated Std. Dev: 2.2» Estimated % Error: 2.92%### 30 ###
Last edited by tsnet on 11:44 PM - Oct 26, 2016, edited 2 times in total.
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12:14 AM - Dec 04, 2016 #8

Sorry for the delay. with the site down last week, I was unable to post this at the time.






OAA Boys Soccer: Alpha-Omega Report #8
§ Spectacular Six (David Wilson Performance Ratings)
*=OAA White Division \ #=OAA Blue Division
                        W  L  T                        -  -  -  1  Athens-Troy       19  5  2  643 [D1 Runners Up]  2  Stoney Creek      15  4  4  619  3  Rochester         15  4  5  616  4  Adams             12  5  4  613  5 *Avondale          14  2  4  591  6  Clarkston          9  8  3  579For 308 total games:» Top Team: Athens-Troy (Red)» Top White Team: #5 Avondale» Top Blue Team: #12 Groves (9-9-1, 503 rating)» Omega Team: #23 Ferndale (3-16-0, 320 rating)» Ratings by Division: Red 592; White 506; Blue 405.» Non-OAA Teams are 50-61-20 with a combined 498 rating.» Home Team Advantage: +0.549 goal» 99.0% games reported (308 of  311)§ David Rothman FACT Ratings
Final co-champions:
  RANK   TEAM          DIVISION   LOGIT  PCT.  RRE   PF  PA  W  L T     1 Avondale          MHSAA-2    1.77  .799  .825  31   5  8  0 4
    2 Adams             MHSAA-1    1.76  .718  .824  27   6 10  3 1 *    3 Stoney Creek      MHSAA-1    1.67  .653  .813  29  16  8  3 3 *    4 Athens-Troy       MHSAA-1    1.50  .663  .793  19   7  8  3 2 †* Any team within 0.252 LOGIT points (12% of standard deviation) is an automatic co-champion.† Any team within 0.42 LOGIT points (20% of standard deviation) shares the championship at the author's discretion.For 133 games:» Least Likely Result: Southfield A/T 3, Farmington 2 (63.4% unlikely)» Average Margin of Victory: 2.284 goals» Standard Deviation: 2.093 goals» Margin ± Std. Dev: 1 to 4 goals» Estimated Std. Dev: 2.1» Estimated % Error: 0.32%
§ Historical FACT Data
B Soc Margin Std Dev Games
2016 2.284 2.093 148
2015 2.248 2.393 153
2014 2.098 1.862 133
2013 2.087 2.123 127
2012 2.259 2.426 143
2011 2.539 2.382 143
2010 2.42 2.06 143
2009 n/av n/av 134
### 30 ###
Last edited by tsnet on 12:19 AM - Dec 04, 2016, edited 1 time in total.
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