Boys Soccer: Fall 2015 OAA Alpha-Omega Rankings

tsnet
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September 5th, 2015, 3:47 pm #1

With MLive indefinitely down, I'll post reports here, along with my usual weekly tweet.
OAA Boys Soccer: Alpha-Omega Report #1
[21 of 23 teams eligible]
§ Spectacular Six (David Wilson Performance Ratings)

See also: Unofficial OAA Boys Soccer Rankings (Fall 2015)
*=OAA White Division \ #=OAA Blue Division
                        W  L  T                        -  -  -  1  Athens-Troy        5  0  1  661  2  Adams              5  2  1  660  3  Troy               3  1  1  634  4 *Oxford             5  0  1  615  5  Berkley            5  3  1  588  6 *Seaholm            1  1  1  579
For 78 total games:» Top Team: Troy-Athens (Red)» Top White Team: #4 Oxford» Top Blue Team: #7 N Farmington (1-2-1, 562 rating)» Omega Team: #21 Groves (0-2-0, 338 rating)» Ratings by Division: Red 591; White 510; Blue  442.» Non-OAA Teams are 15-30-4 with a combined 496 rating.» Home Team Advantage: -0.42 goals
§ David Rothman FACT Ratings
For 29 games» Top Team: Adams (2-0-1 Intra-OAA; 1.72 LOGIT)» Least Likely Result: Lake Orion 2, Oxford 2 (53.9% unlikely)» Margin of Victory: 1.793 goals; Standard Deviation: 2.059» Margin ± Std. Dev: 0 to 3 goals» Estimated % Error: 1.97%### 30 ###
Co-webmaster, OAA football -- http://leaguelineup.com/oaa
OAA Football Scores & Ratings -- http://oaafootball.timstats.net
Twitter @TimsSports
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tsnet
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September 12th, 2015, 5:40 pm #2

I still can't log into MLive. So, I'll continue to post updates here.
OAA Boys Soccer: Alpha-Omega Report #2
[22 of 23 teams eligible]
§ Spectacular Six (David Wilson Performance Ratings)

*=OAA White Division \ #=OAA Blue Division
                        W  L  T                        -  -  -  1  Adams              6  2  2  654  2  Athens-Troy        6  0  2  644  3 *Seaholm            2  1  2  615  4 *Oxford             5  0  3  613  5  Troy               3  2  2  601  6  Clarkston          3  2  2  596
For 103 total games:» Top Team: Adams (Red)» Top White Team: #4 Seaholm» Top Blue Team: #10 Sfld-Lathrup (1-0-0, 572 rating)» Omega Team: #22 Hazel Park (2-3-0, 286 rating)» Ratings by Division: Red 600; White 532; Blue  442.» Non-OAA Teams are 17-35-6 with a combined 496 rating.» Home Team Advantage: -0.35 goals
§ David Rothman FACT Ratings
For 45 games» Top Team: Sfld-Lathrup (1-0-0 Intra-OAA; 3.36 LOGIT) **» Least Likely Result: Rochester 7, Troy 4 (53.1% unlikely)» Margin of Victory: 1.8 goals; Standard Deviation: 1.972» Margin ± Std. Dev: 0 to 3 goals» Esitmated Std. Dev: 2.» Estimated % Error: 1.39%
** Harrison had been the top team due to outscoring opponents 20-0. Lathrup's 2-1 win over Harrison leapfrogged them into the top spot. I imagine this will change once more league games are played.### 30 ###
Co-webmaster, OAA football -- http://leaguelineup.com/oaa
OAA Football Scores & Ratings -- http://oaafootball.timstats.net
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tsnet
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September 19th, 2015, 2:35 pm #3

I was able to reactivate my MLive account this week. However, I'll continue to post these here for consistency.
OAA Boys Soccer: Alpha-Omega Report #3
[All teams eligible]
§ Spectacular Six (David Wilson Performance Ratings)

*=OAA White Division \ #=OAA Blue Division
                        W  L  T                        -  -  -  1  Adams              7  3  2  643  2  Athens-Troy        6  1  3  623  3  Clarkston          8  2  2  619  4 *Seaholm            5  1  2  610  5 *Oxford             5  2  3  606  6  Berkley            8  3  3  596
For 139 total games:» Top Team: Adams (Red)» Top White Team: #4 Seaholm» Top Blue Team: #11 N Farmington (3-3-1, 547 rating)» Omega Team: #23 Hazel Park (2-4-0, 283 rating)» Ratings by Division: Red 600; White 554; Blue  418.» Non-OAA Teams are 25-42-7 with a combined 494 rating.» Home Team Advantage: +0.01 goal
§ David Rothman FACT Ratings
For 64 games» Top Team: Adams (4-1-2 Intra-OAA; 1.89 LOGIT) **» Least Likely Result: Bloomfield Hills 5, Oxford 1 (74.4% unlikely)» Margin of Victory: 2.094 goals; Standard Deviation: 2.223» Margin ± Std. Dev: 0 to 4 goals» Esitmated Std. Dev: 2.2» Estimated % Error: 1.05%### 30 ###
Co-webmaster, OAA football -- http://leaguelineup.com/oaa
OAA Football Scores & Ratings -- http://oaafootball.timstats.net
Twitter @TimsSports
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September 26th, 2015, 6:14 pm #4

OAA Boys Soccer: Alpha-Omega Report #4
§ Spectacular Six (David Wilson Performance Ratings)
*=OAA White Division \ #=OAA Blue Division
                        W  L  T                        -  -  -  1  Adams              8  4  2  636  2  Athens-Troy        8  1  4  616  3  Clarkston          8  2  4  607  4 *Seaholm            6  1  3  585  5 *Oxford             5  2  5  583  6  Rochester          5  3  3  580
For 170 total games:» Top Team: Adams (Red)» Top White Team: #4 Seaholm» Top Blue Team: #12 N Farmington (5-3-2, 542 rating)» Omega Team: #23 Hazel Park (2-6-0, 287 rating)» Ratings by Division: Red 590; White 536; Blue  447.» Non-OAA Teams are 27-50-11 with a combined 493 rating.» Home Team Advantage: +0.30 goal
§ David Rothman FACT Ratings
For 71 games» Top Team: Adams (4-1-2 Intra-OAA; 1.80 LOGIT) **» Least Likely Result: Bloomfield Hills 5, Oxford 1 (74.6% unlikely)» Margin of Victory: 2.268 goals; Standard Deviation: 2.419» Margin ± Std. Dev: 0 to 4 goals» Esitmated Std. Dev: 2.4» Estimated % Error: 0.80%### 30 ###
Co-webmaster, OAA football -- http://leaguelineup.com/oaa
OAA Football Scores & Ratings -- http://oaafootball.timstats.net
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October 3rd, 2015, 9:12 pm #5

OAA Boys Soccer: Alpha-Omega Report #5
§ Spectacular Six (David Wilson Performance Ratings)
*=OAA White Division \ #=OAA Blue Division
                        W  L  T                        -  -  -  1  Adams              9  4  2  648  2  Clarkston          8  3  4  610.4  3  Athens-Troy        8  2  5  609.5  4  Rochester          6  3  4  594  5 *Seaholm            6  1  4  592  6  Troy               5  5  2  588.24
Note: Oxford was 0.0198 behind Troy for 6th place.
For 202 total games:» Top Team: Adams (Red)» Top White Team: #5 Seaholm» Top Blue Team: #12 N Farmington (6-5-2, 532 rating)» Omega Team: #23 Oak Park (0-2-0, 278 rating)» Ratings by Division: Red 600; White 544; Blue  431.» Non-OAA Teams are 35-55-13 with a combined 494 rating.» Home Team Advantage: +0.21 goal
§ David Rothman FACT Ratings
For 100 games» Top Team: Adams (6-1-2 Intra-OAA; 2.08 LOGIT) **» Least Likely Result: Bloomfield Hills 5, Oxford 1 (76.6% unlikely)» Margin of Victory: 2.15 goals; Standard Deviation: 2.341» Margin ± Std. Dev: 0 to 4 goals» Esitmated Std. Dev: 2.4» Estimated % Error: 2.50%### 30 ###
Co-webmaster, OAA football -- http://leaguelineup.com/oaa
OAA Football Scores & Ratings -- http://oaafootball.timstats.net
Twitter @TimsSports
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October 10th, 2015, 9:01 pm #6

OAA Boys Soccer: Alpha-Omega Report #6
§ Spectacular Six (David Wilson Performance Ratings)
*=OAA White Division \ #=OAA Blue Division
                        W  L  T                        -  -  -  1  Adams             11  4  3  640  2  Clarkston         10  3  4  614  3  Athens-Troy       10  2  5  611  4  Troy               7  5  2  597  5 *Oxford             8  2  6  585  6  Rochester          6  5  4  581
For 229 total games:» Top Team: Adams (Red)» Top White Team: #5 Oxford» Top Blue Team: #12 Harrison-FH (10-3-2, 543 rating)» Omega Team: #23 Oak Park (0-2-0, 283 rating)» Ratings by Division: Red 597; White 540; Blue  435.» Non-OAA Teams are 36-60-13 with a combined 495 rating.» Home Team Advantage: +0.23 goal
95.4% scores reported.§ David Rothman FACT Ratings
For 119 games» Top Team: Adams (7-1-3 Intra-OAA; 1.88 LOGIT)» Least Likely Result: Bloomfield Hills 5, Oxford 1 (73.8% unlikely)» Margin of Victory: 2.143 goals; Standard Deviation: 2.377» Margin ± Std. Dev: 0 to 4 goals» Esitmated Std. Dev: 2.4» Estimated % Error: 0.98%### 30 ###
Co-webmaster, OAA football -- http://leaguelineup.com/oaa
OAA Football Scores & Ratings -- http://oaafootball.timstats.net
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October 18th, 2015, 2:20 pm #7

OAA Boys Soccer: Alpha-Omega Report #7
§ Spectacular Six (David Wilson Performance Ratings)
*=OAA White Division \ #=OAA Blue Division
                        W  L  T                        -  -  -  1  Clarkston         13  3  4  627  2  Adams             11  6  3  622  3  Athens-Troy       12  2  5  621  4  Troy               8  7  2  585  5 *Oxford            10  2  8  577  6  Rochester          6  6  5  576
For 262 total games:» Top Team: Clarkston (Red)» Top White Team: #5 Oxford» Top Blue Team: #12 Harrison-FH (11-4-2, 541.2 rating)» Omega Team: #23 Oak Park (0-4-0, 307 rating)» Ratings by Division: Red 595; White 539; Blue  444.» Non-OAA Teams are 43-65-13 with a combined 494 rating.» Home Team Advantage: +0.24 goal
97.0% scores reported.§ David Rothman FACT Ratings
For 140 games» Top Team: Athens-Troy (7-2-4 Intra-OAA; 1.51 LOGIT)» Least Likely Result: Bloomfield Hills 5, Oxford 1 (72.5% unlikely)» Margin of Victory: 2.236 goals; Standard Deviation: 2.413» Margin ± Std. Dev: 0 to 4 goals» Esitmated Std. Dev: 2.4» Estimated % Error: 0.53%### 30 ###
Last edited by tsnet on November 18th, 2015, 12:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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November 18th, 2015, 12:45 am #8

OAA Boys Soccer: Alpha-Omega Report #8 (Final)
§ Spectacular Six (David Wilson Performance Ratings)
*=OAA White Division \ #=OAA Blue Division
                        W  L  T                        -  -  -  1  Adams             16  7  3  632.2  2  Clarkston         16  4  4  631.6  3  Athens-Troy       14  3  5  608  4 *Oxford            11  3  8  579  5  Stoney Creek       9 11  3  574  6  Rochester          6  7  5  571
For 299 total games:» Top Team: Adams (Red)» Top White Team: #4 Oxford» Top Blue Team: #13 Harrison-FH (13-5-2, 526 rating)» Omega Team: #23 Oak Park (0-4-0, 312 rating)» Ratings by Division: Red 592; White 546; Blue  440.» Non-OAA Teams are 55-77-13 with a combined 495 rating.» Home Team Advantage: +0.26 goal
98.0% scores reported.§ David Rothman FACT Ratings
For 153 games» Top Team: Adams (10-3-3 Intra-OAA; 1.60 LOGIT) – This is 0.02 ahead of Troy Athens. (the late David Rothman would likely consider them co-champs in this system)» Least Likely Result: Southfield Lathrup 2, Farmington Hills Harrison 1 (68.6% unlikely)» Margin of Victory: 2.248 goals; Standard Deviation: 2.393» Margin ± Std. Dev: 0 to 4 goals» Esitmated Std. Dev: 2.4» Estimated % Error: 0.28%
Historical FACT Data:
B. Soccer Margin Std Dev Games
2015 2.248 2.393 153
2014 2.098 1.862 133
2013 2.087 2.123 127
2012 2.259 2.426 143
2011 2.539 2.382 143
2010 2.42 2.06 143
2009 n/av n/av 134
### 30 ###
Last edited by tsnet on November 18th, 2015, 12:48 am, edited 2 times in total.
Co-webmaster, OAA football -- http://leaguelineup.com/oaa
OAA Football Scores & Ratings -- http://oaafootball.timstats.net
Twitter @TimsSports
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