Baseball: 2012 OAA Alpha-Omega Rankings

tsnet
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April 8th, 2012, 12:17 pm #1

OAA Alpha-Omega Ranking - Report #1 (2012.04.08)
OAA Teams as ranked by the Wilson Performance Ratings for 51 total games (20 of 25 teams eligible).
» ALPHA TEAM (best rating): Lake Orion (5-1), 666 Wilson Rating
» TOP OAA RED TEAM: #1-Lake Orion (5-1), 666
» TOP OAA WHITE TEAM: #4-Farmington (1-0), 550
» TOP OAA BLUE TEAM: #2-Andover (3-1-1), 564
» TOP OAA GOLD TEAM: #5-Southfield Lathrup (1-0), 541
» OMEGA TEAM (lowest rating): Southfield (0-4), 257
» SPECTACULAR SIX (top 6 teams):
                        W  L
                        -  -
  1  Lake Orion         5  1  0  666
  2 #BlHills Andover    3  1  1  564
  3  Rochester          3  1  1  562
  4 *Farmington         1  0  0  550
  5 2Sfld-Lathrup       1  0  0  541
    #Troy               2  0  0  541
The full ranked list of OAA teams is available at
< http://oaa.timstats.net/2011-12/basebal ... mega.shtml >
###
This Week's FACT Rating Details. (7 Intra-OAA games with 1 ties)
» Least Likely Intra-OAA Result: {insufficient data this week}
» Average Margin of Victory: 5.143 runs (first report)
» Standard Deviation: 5.699 runs (first report)
» Average + and - 1 Standard Deviation: -0.556 10.842 runs (0-10 runs)
0.004% relative error (currently using 5.6987885 as the assumed standard deviation)
###
Standard Disclaimers: Information is based on all known/confirmed scores as of this compilation.
For entertainment purposes only; all offers are not valid on days ending in 'Y'; etc.
Last edited by tsnet on July 2nd, 2012, 9:37 pm, edited 4 times in total.
Co-webmaster, OAA football -- http://leaguelineup.com/oaa
OAA Football Scores & Ratings -- http://oaafootball.timstats.net
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tsnet
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April 15th, 2012, 9:53 pm #2

OAA Alpha-Omega Ranking - Report #2 (2012.04.15)
OAA Teams as ranked by the Wilson Performance Ratings for 106 total games (all teams eligible).
» ALPHA TEAM (best rating): Troy (6-2), 706 Wilson Rating.
» TOP OAA RED TEAM: #4-Lake Orion (7-3), 663.
» TOP OAA WHITE TEAM: #2-Seaholm (2-5), 698.
» TOP OAA BLUE TEAM: #1-Troy (6-2), 706.
» TOP OAA GOLD TEAM: #15-Southfield Lathrup (4-0), 462.
» OMEGA TEAM (lowest rating): Hazel Park (2-3), 148.
» SPECTACULAR SIX (top 6 teams):
                        W  L  T
                        -  -  -
  1 #Troy               6  2  0  706
  2 *Birm Seaholm       2  5  0  698
  3 #AHills Avondale    6  3  1  668
  4  Lake Orion         7  3  0  663
  5 #BlHills Lahser     3  3  0  649
  6 *F Hills Harrison   0  3  0  599
The full ranked list of OAA teams is available at
< http://oaa.timstats.net/2011-12/basebal ... mega.shtml >
Divisional Rankings: Blue (567), White (551), Non-OAA (517), Red (509), Gold (292)
Author's Comments: I'm not sure if some of the unusual scores and/or doubleheader splits have made a difference this week. We will see how the ratings shake out next week.
###
This Week's FACT Rating Details. (32 Intra-OAA games with 1 tie)
» Least Likely Intra-OAA Result: Andover 7, Stoney Creek 6 (21.8% unlikely)
» Average Margin of Victory: 5.531 runs (+0.388 from last week)
» Standard Deviation: 4.765 runs (-0.934 from last week)
» Average + and - 1 Standard Deviation: 0.766 10.297 runs (1-10 runs)
0.01% relative error (currently using 4.765361409 as the assumed standard deviation)
Last edited by tsnet on May 28th, 2012, 2:40 pm, edited 4 times in total.
Co-webmaster, OAA football -- http://leaguelineup.com/oaa
OAA Football Scores & Ratings -- http://oaafootball.timstats.net
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tsnet
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April 22nd, 2012, 3:23 pm #3

OAA Alpha-Omega Ranking - Report #3 (2012.04.22)
OAA Teams as ranked by the Wilson Performance Ratings for 149 total games (all teams eligible).
» ALPHA TEAM (best rating): Lake Orion (8-5), 670 Wilson Rating.
» TOP OAA RED TEAM: #1-Lake Orion (8-5), 670.
» TOP OAA WHITE TEAM: #4-N Farmington (2-2), 579.
» TOP OAA BLUE TEAM: #2-Avondale (10-3-1), 664.
» TOP OAA GOLD TEAM: #12-Berkely (7-0), 497.
» OMEGA TEAM (lowest rating): Hazel Park (2-5), 213.
» SPECTACULAR SIX (top 6 teams):
                        W  L  T
                        -  -  -
  1  Lake Orion         8  5  0  670
  2 #AHills Avondale   10  3  1  664
  3  Oxford             2  3  0  596
  4 *N Farmington       2  2  0  579
  5 #Troy               8  4  0  578
  6  RHills Stoney Crk  8  5  0  561
The full ranked list of OAA teams is available at
< http://oaa.timstats.net/2011-12/basebal ... mega.shtml >
Divisional Rankings: Red (577), Blue (524), Non-OAA (509), White (490), Gold (362)
###
This Week's FACT Rating Details. (58 Intra-OAA games with 2 ties)
» Least Likely Intra-OAA Result: Royal Oak 2, Troy 0 (48.7% unlikely)
» Average Margin of Victory: 4.931 runs (-0.600 from last week)
» Standard Deviation: 4.332 runs (-0.433 from last week)
» Average + and - 1 Standard Deviation: 0.599 9.263 runs (1-9 runs)
0.002% relative error (currently using 4.332099969 as the assumed standard deviation)
Last edited by tsnet on July 2nd, 2012, 9:38 pm, edited 8 times in total.
Co-webmaster, OAA football -- http://leaguelineup.com/oaa
OAA Football Scores & Ratings -- http://oaafootball.timstats.net
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tsnet
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April 29th, 2012, 2:19 pm #4

OAA Alpha-Omega Ranking - Report #4 (2012.04.29)
OAA Teams as ranked by the Wilson Performance Ratings for 207 total games.
» ALPHA TEAM (best rating): Avondale (14-3-1), 683 Wilson Rating.
» TOP OAA RED TEAM: #2-Lake Orion (12-7), 625.
» TOP OAA WHITE TEAM: #7-N. Farmington (8-3), 572.
» TOP OAA BLUE TEAM: #1-Avondale (14-3-1), 683.
» TOP OAA GOLD TEAM: #3-Berkley (11-1), 611.
» OMEGA TEAM (lowest rating): Hazel Park (2-3), 148.
» SPECTACULAR SIX (top 6 teams):
                        W  L  T
                        -  -  -
  1 #AHills Avondale   14  3  1  683
  2  Lake Orion        12  7  0  625
  3 2Berkley           11  1  0  611
  4  RHills Stoney Crk 11  6  0  589
  5  Clarkston          4  3  1  586
  6 #BlHills Andover   12  3  1  581
The full ranked list of OAA teams is available at
< http://oaa.timstats.net/2011-12/basebal ... mega.shtml >
Divisional Rankings: Red (576), Blue (538), Non-OAA (505), White (488), Gold (375)
###
This Week's FACT Rating Details. (104 Intra-OAA games with 2 ties)
» Top Team: Avondale (10-0 Intra-OAA Record)
» Least Likely Intra-OAA Result: Oxford 7, Lake Orion 4 (71.3% unlikely)
» Average Margin of Victory: 5.375 runs (+0.444 from last week)
» Standard Deviation: 4.295 runs (-0.037 from last week)
» Average + and - 1 Standard Deviation: 1.080 9.670 runs (2-9 runs)
0.009% relative error (currently assuming 4.2953746 as the actual standard deviation)
Last edited by tsnet on July 2nd, 2012, 9:38 pm, edited 4 times in total.
Co-webmaster, OAA football -- http://leaguelineup.com/oaa
OAA Football Scores & Ratings -- http://oaafootball.timstats.net
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tsnet
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May 6th, 2012, 10:19 pm #5

OAA Alpha-Omega Ranking - Report #5 (2012.05.06)
OAA Teams as ranked by the Wilson Performance Ratings for 251 total games.
» ALPHA TEAM (best rating) / Top OAA Blue Team: Avondale (15-4-1), 639 Wilson Rating.
» TOP OAA RED TEAM: #2-Lake Orion (15-7), 625.
» TOP OAA WHITE TEAM: #3-N. Farmington (9-3), 594.
» TOP OAA GOLD TEAM: #10-Berkley (13-4), 540.
» OMEGA TEAM (lowest rating): Oak Park (1-9), 205.
» SPECTACULAR SIX (top 6 teams):
                        W  L  T
                        -  -  -
  1 #Avondale          15  4  1  639
  2  Lake Orion        15  7  0  625
  3 *N Farmington       9  3  0  594
  4 #Andover           15  4  1  593
     Clarkston          6  3  1  593
  6  Adams              9 10  0  565
The full ranked list of OAA teams is available at
< http://oaa.timstats.net/2011-12/basebal ... mega.shtml >
Divisional Rankings: Red (566), Blue (548), White (510), Non-OAA (502), Gold (377)
###

This Week's FACT Rating Details. (104 Intra-OAA games with 2 ties)
» Top Team: Avondale (11-1 Intra-OAA Record, 3.13 LOGIT)
» Least Likely Intra-OAA Result: Oxford 7, Lake Orion 4 (72.2% unlikely)
» Average Margin of Victory: 5.227 runs (-0.148 from last week)
» Standard Deviation: 4.308 runs (+0.013 from last week)
» Average + and - 1 Standard Deviation: 0.919 9.534 runs (1-9 runs)
0.012% relative error (currently using 4.307501 as the assumed standard deviation)
Last edited by tsnet on July 2nd, 2012, 9:39 pm, edited 5 times in total.
Co-webmaster, OAA football -- http://leaguelineup.com/oaa
OAA Football Scores & Ratings -- http://oaafootball.timstats.net
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May 14th, 2012, 10:49 pm #6

OAA Alpha-Omega Ranking - Report #6 (2012.05.13)
OAA Teams as ranked by the Wilson Performance Ratings for 300 total games.
» ALPHA TEAM (best rating) / Top OAA Blue Team: Avondale (18-5-1), 627 Wilson Rating.
» TOP OAA RED TEAM: #2-Lake Orion (18-8), 598.
» TOP OAA WHITE TEAM: #7-N. Farmington (13-7), 554.
» TOP OAA GOLD TEAM: #13-Berkley (14-5), 530.
» OMEGA TEAM (lowest rating): Oak Park (1-9), 217.
» SPECTACULAR SIX (top 6 teams):
                        W  L  T
                        -  -  -
  1 #Avondale          18  5  1  627
  2  Lake Orion        18  8  0  598
  3 #Andover           20  4  1  594
  4  RHills Stoney Crk 15  8  0  582
  5  Clarkston          7  4  1  580
  6 #Troy              12 10  0  555
The full ranked list of OAA teams is available at
< http://oaa.timstats.net/2011-12/basebal ... mega.shtml >
Divisional Rankings: Red (564), Blue (543), White (508), Non-OAA (502), Gold (385)
###
This Week's FACT Rating Details. (155 Intra-OAA games with 3 ties)
» Top Team: Avondale (13-2 Intra-OAA Record; 2.52 LOGIT)
» Least Likely Intra-OAA Result: Seaholm 14, Berkley 3 (71.3% unlikely)
» Average Margin of Victory: 5.077 runs (-0.150 from last week)
» Standard Deviation: 4.138 runs (-0.170 from last week)
» Average + and - 1 Standard Deviation: 0.939 9.219 runs (1-9 runs)
0.012% relative error (currently using 4.1380959 as the assumed standard deviation)
Last edited by tsnet on July 2nd, 2012, 9:43 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Co-webmaster, OAA football -- http://leaguelineup.com/oaa
OAA Football Scores & Ratings -- http://oaafootball.timstats.net
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May 20th, 2012, 5:20 pm #7

OAA Alpha-Omega Ranking - Report #7 (2012.05.20)
OAA Teams as ranked by the Wilson Performance Ratings for 343 total games.
» ALPHA TEAM (best rating)/ Top OAA Red Team: Lake Orion (22-8-0), 597 Wilson Rating.
» TOP OAA WHITE TEAM: #6-N. Farmington (16-8), 561.
» TOP OAA BLUE TEAM: #2-Avondale (21-8-1), 595.
» TOP OAA GOLD TEAM: #15-Berkley (17-6), 510.7.
» OMEGA TEAM (lowest rating): Oak Park (1-9), 256.
» SPECTACULAR SIX (top 6 teams):
                        W  L  T
                        -  -  -
  1  Lake Orion        22  8  0  597
  2 #Avondale          21  8  1  595
  3 #Andover           24  4  1  584
  4  Clarkston          9  4  1  579
  5  Adams             17 12  0  562
  6 *N Farmington      16  8  0  561
The full ranked list of OAA teams is available at
< http://oaa.timstats.net/2011-12/basebal ... mega.shtml >
Divisional Rankings: Red (555), Blue (534), White (509), Non-OAA (501), Gold (404)
###

This Week's FACT Rating Details. (184 Intra-OAA games with 3 ties)
(note: Changed back to David Rothman's original formula for better accuracy)
» Top Team: Lake Orion (15-2 Intra-OAA Record; 3.95 LOGIT)
» Least Likely Intra-OAA Result: Oxford 7, Lake Orion 4 (81.9% unlikely)
» Average Margin of Victory: 5.207 runs (+0.130 from last week)
» Standard Deviation: 4.119 runs (-0.019 from last week)
» Average + and - 1 Standard Deviation: 1.088 9.325 runs (2-9 runs)
0.011% relative error (assuming 4.1185653 as the actual standard deviation)
Last edited by tsnet on July 2nd, 2012, 9:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Co-webmaster, OAA football -- http://leaguelineup.com/oaa
OAA Football Scores & Ratings -- http://oaafootball.timstats.net
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May 28th, 2012, 4:37 pm #8

OAA Alpha-Omega Ranking - Report #8 (2012.05.28 - Final Regular Season)
OAA Teams as ranked by the Wilson Performance Ratings for 396 total games.
» ALPHA TEAM (best rating) / Top OAA Red Team: Lake Orion (26-8), 601 Wilson Rating.
» TOP OAA WHITE TEAM: #7-N. Farmington (17-9), 545. 
» TOP OAA BLUE TEAM: #2-Avondale (25-8-1), 593.
» TOP OAA GOLD TEAM: #13-Berkley (21-9), 510.3.
» OMEGA TEAM (lowest rating): Hazel Park (5-13), 324.
» SPECTACULAR SIX (top 6 teams):
                        W  L  T
                        -  -  -
  1  Lake Orion        26  8  0  601
  2 #Avondale          25  8  1  593
  3 #Andover           24  4  1  582
  4  Clarkston          9  6  1  565.1
     Stoney Creek      17 11  0  564.9
  6  Adams             19 15  1  550
The full ranked list of OAA teams is available at
< http://oaa.timstats.net/2011-12/basebal ... mega.shtml >
Divisional Rankings: Red (551), Blue (532), White (503), Non-OAA (502), Gold (406)
###
This Week's FACT Rating Details. (215 Intra-OAA games with 4 ties)
» Top Team: Lake Orion (18-2 Intra-OAA Record; 4.62 LOGIT)
» Least Likely Intra-OAA Result: Oxford 7, Lake Orion 4 (86.0% unlikely)
» Average Margin of Victory: 5.265 runs (+0.058 from last week)
» Standard Deviation: 4.213 runs (+0.095 from last week)
» Average + and - 1 Standard Deviation: 1.052 9.478 runs (2-9 runs)
0.885% relative error (currently using 4.250 as the estimated standard deviation).
Last edited by tsnet on July 2nd, 2012, 9:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Co-webmaster, OAA football -- http://leaguelineup.com/oaa
OAA Football Scores & Ratings -- http://oaafootball.timstats.net
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July 2nd, 2012, 9:51 pm #9

OAA Alpha-Omega Ranking: Final Season-Ending Report (July 2)
OAA Teams as ranked by the Wilson Performance Ratings for 468 total games.
» ALPHA TEAM (best rating) / Top OAA Red Team: Lake Orion (30-9), 617 Wilson Rating.
» TOP OAA WHITE TEAM: #7-N. Farmington (18-11), 554. 
» TOP OAA BLUE TEAM: #2-Avondale (26-9-1), 582.
» TOP OAA GOLD TEAM: #15-Berkley (21-10), 508.
» OMEGA TEAM (lowest rating): Hazel Park (6-15), 312.77.
» SPECTACULAR SIX (top 6 teams):
                        W  L  T
                        -  -  -
  1  Lake Orion        30  9  0  617
  2 #Avondale          26  9  1  582
  3  Stoney Creek      19 12  0  573
  4  Clarkston         11  8  1  572
  5  Adams             19 16  1  565
  6 #Andover           28  8  1  556
The full ranked list of OAA teams is available at
< http://oaa.timstats.net/2011-12/basebal ... mega.shtml >
Divisional Rankings: Red (561), Blue (518), White (507), Non-OAA (502), Gold (395)
###
This Week's FACT Rating Details. (237 Intra-OAA games with 4 ties)
» Top Team: Lake Orion (21-2 Intra-OAA Record; 4.97 LOGIT)
» Least Likely Intra-OAA Result: Oxford 7, Lake Orion 4 (85.5% unlikely / Played April 27)
» Average Margin of Victory: 5.181 runs (-0.084 from last week)
» Standard Deviation: 4.136 runs (-0.077 from last week)
» Average + and - 1 Standard Deviation: 1.045 9.317 runs (2-9 runs)
2.755% relative error (currently using 4.125 as the estimated standard deviation).
Intra-OAA Comparison 2012 2011
Margin of Victory 5.181 5.58
Standard Deviation 4.136 4.38
Co-webmaster, OAA football -- http://leaguelineup.com/oaa
OAA Football Scores & Ratings -- http://oaafootball.timstats.net
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