Joined: April 7th, 2007, 12:28 pm

November 29th, 2017, 9:00 am #51

Perhaps we can also look at other non-ranking factors, such as which teams will have many players (or the key decisive players) more tired.  Players in England, and some of those in the late stages of the ECL, are generally the tiredest.

I don't know enough about the climate of various Russian provincial cities to say whether heat will be a major factor.
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Joined: April 5th, 2012, 10:54 am

November 29th, 2017, 2:09 pm #52

Heat might be an issue at the three southern venues, therefore for whichever team gets drawn in position A2. After opening the tournament against Russia at the Luzhniki they will travel to Rostov-on-Don and Volgograd.

I was in a mood for a silly plot so I've compared the average temperature and humidity in July for the eleven host cities, as well as the cities in which the players forming each team's latest squad are based. The Russian team was based mostly out of Moscow clubs, so their bubble will show a small amplitude; for other countries this will be higher.


(top seeds only)
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Joined: April 7th, 2007, 12:28 pm

November 29th, 2017, 3:42 pm #53

On that evidence, I would say the answer is no.  Or not enough to bother too much about.   As the squads for most of the decent teams are largely based in Western Europe, the sillyness could be optimized by addingh some Saudis or something.

Not sure how tiredness could be incorporated.  Expected minutes played over the season, or time since significant rest?
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Joined: April 5th, 2012, 10:54 am

December 1st, 2017, 12:42 pm #54

The immediate reaction after the draw seems to be that Uruguay was dealt an easy group; Croatia will face tricky fixtures.
Not many changes from my side either; the main outcome of the draw is that Portugal and Spain will avoid eachother until the final, probably why they get a small bump there.

Code: Select all

              Bookmakers           Cubic Watermelon
Germany       16,1%   1:6     |    14,8%   1:7    [2]
Brazil        15,1%   1:7     |    27,7%   1:4    [1]
France        13,8%   1:7     |     4,8%   1:21   [7]
Spain         10,9%   1:9     |    10,1%   1:10   [3]
Argentina      9,3%   1:11    |     6,5%   1:15   [5]
Belgium        6,7%   1:15    |     5,3%   1:19   [6]
England        4,8%   1:21    |     2,9%   1:34   [9]
Portugal       3,2%   1:31    |     8,0%   1:12   [4]
Uruguay        2,7%   1:37    |     2,4%   1:42   [10]
Colombia       2,5%   1:40    |     3,6%   1:28   [8]
Russia         2,3%   1:44    |     0,5%   1:205  [20]
Croatia        2,1%   1:47    |     1,8%   1:56   [13]
Poland         1,7%   1:59    |     2,2%   1:45   [11]
Switzerland    1,1%   1:90    |     1,3%   1:77   [14]
Mexico         1,0%   1:103   |     0,6%   1:169  [18]
Sweden         0,9%   1:109   |     1,2%   1:83   [15]
Denmark        0,9%   1:115   |     1,2%   1:84   [16]
Serbia         0,7%   1:145   |     0,6%   1:169  [18]
Senegal        0,5%   1:198   |     0,4%   1:241  [21]
Nigeria        0,5%   1:211   |     0,1%   1:1169 [29]
Iceland        0,4%   1:225   |     0,6%   1:165  [17]
Peru           0,4%   1:226   |     1,8%   1:55   [12]
Egypt          0,4%   1:236   |     0,2%   1:608  [24]
Japan          0,4%   1:245   |     0,3%   1:310  [22]
Australia      0,3%   1:354   |     0,1%   1:800  [27]
Costa Rica     0,3%   1:385   |     0,1%   1:724  [26]
Morocco        0,3%   1:398   |     0,2%   1:608  [24]
Iran           0,2%   1:414   |     0,2%   1:422  [23]
South Korea    0,2%   1:442   |     0,0%   1:3040 [32]
Tunisia        0,2%   1:619   |     0,0%   1:2533 [31]
Saudi Arabia   0,1%   1:876   |     0,1%   1:1267 [30]
Panama         0,1%   1:1146  |     0,1%   1:894  [28]

And of course in graphical form:


There's a case for Group H being considered the Group of Death (or is it Life in these PC days?); I estimate even the lowest-rated team (Japan) to have about a 30% change of going through.
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Joined: April 7th, 2007, 12:28 pm

December 2nd, 2017, 4:24 am #55

It looks to me that the main impact on the odds is mostly just the ordering of the top two seeds, i.e. which of the main contenders are likely to meet each other in the quarters.   There are hardly any groups where the seeding used looks significantly different from the "true" seeding  -  we knew about Russia's group a priori.
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Joined: October 31st, 2006, 5:16 pm

December 2nd, 2017, 7:45 am #56

To answer the original post:

Quite.
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Joined: April 7th, 2007, 12:28 pm

December 2nd, 2017, 9:28 am #57

That is indeed the best answer given so far.
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