How difficult is it to qualify for the World Cup in its current format?

Joined: April 7th, 2007, 12:28 pm

September 7th, 2017, 5:09 pm #1

Here I'm considering qualifying format only.  All teams assumed equal strength, match outcomes uniform - hence this is just simple arithmetic.  This gives a crude idea of the format bias across the confederations.

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Chance of qualifying in current format:

                 Russia  ( 1 team ) : 100%    (1/1)
                CONMEBOL (10 teams) : 45.0%   (9/20)
CONCACAF 4th round seeds ( 6 teams) : 29.17%  (7/24)
                    UEFA (54 teams) : 24.1%   (13/54)
CONCACAF 3rd round seeds ( 2 teams) : 14.58%  (7/48)
     CAF 2nd round seeds (27 teams) : 12.5%   (1/8)
     AFC 2nd round seeds (34 teams) : 11.25%  (9/80)
CONCACAF 2nd round seeds (13 teams) :  7.29%  (7/96)
     CAF 1st round seeds (26 teams) :  6.25%  (1/16)
     OFC 2nd round seeds ( 7 teams) :  6.25%  (1/16)
     AFC 1st round seeds (12 teams) :  5.625% (9/160)
CONCACAF 1st round seeds (14 teams) :  3.65%  (7/192)
     OFC 1st round seeds ( 4 teams) :  1.56%  (1/64)
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