2019 FIFA Women's World Cup

Joined: July 4th, 2011, 6:46 am

June 16th, 2018, 4:58 pm #1

A bit off-topic considering FIFA have another World Cup on the go at the minute, but a place for to discuss next summer's tournament in France.

One of the teams that might be there is Wales, who have incredibly played 7 matches and conceded 0 goals. A win against England in August (I'm torn!) sees them make the finals for the first ever time.

With just one match left for them I've probably now jinxed this record attempt, but it's an impressive feat regardless, with Euro qualifiers Russia also in the group.
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Joined: April 7th, 2007, 12:28 pm

August 30th, 2018, 7:23 pm #2

No wonder Scotland find it hard to qualify.  Their opponents are allowed to play extra matches!

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Joined: July 4th, 2011, 6:46 am

August 31st, 2018, 11:37 am #3

Speaking of that match yesterday, what was the importance of Scotland needing to win by 2? Clearly 1 goal more against Switzerland last night would still have left them 3GD short of being 'in control of their own destiny', or am I missing something?

Only thing I can think of is UEFA using head-to-head before goal difference, but this is a FIFA tournament?
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Joined: April 5th, 2012, 10:54 am

August 31st, 2018, 12:07 pm #4

Head-to-head trumps overall goal difference, apparently
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Joined: July 4th, 2011, 6:46 am

August 31st, 2018, 6:30 pm #5

mattsanger92 wrote:One of the teams that might be there is Wales, who have incredibly played 7 matches and conceded 0 goals. A win against England in August (I'm torn!) sees them make the finals for the first ever time.

With just one match left for them I've probably now jinxed this record attempt, but it's an impressive feat regardless, with Euro qualifiers Russia also in the group.
I jinxed it, Phil Neville ruining things as usual.

Still, getting 33 minutes away from a group-long clean sheet is an impressive feat no matter who you are, so for Wales it's incredible, almost as much as if this match finished 0-0 and they still
didn't even reach the Play-Offs (or if England then slipped up and Wales qualified with not only 0 conceded but 7 goals scored, less than the number of matches played). Still a chance for them to make the Play-Offs but it now depends on a lot of jiggery-pokery across the other groups to push them into the top 4.

Still, Iceland playing at home to Germany tomorrow where a win would qualify them for the first-ever time and leave Germany having to try and go through the Play-Offs, unlike Wales they have another match afterwards as a safety net, and unlike Wales I won't comment further.
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Joined: April 5th, 2012, 10:54 am

September 1st, 2018, 2:30 am #6

mattsanger92 wrote:(or if England then slipped up and Wales qualified with not only 0 conceded but 7 goals scored, less than the number of matches played).
Surely that would have been a record. Apart from some trivial examples in two-team groups, the only comparable result I remember is Greece qualifying for Euro 2004 with 8 goals in 8 games. Their results were, sequentially, 0-2, 0-2, 2-0, 2-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0. They were probably trying to do the football equivalent of the Konami code.
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Joined: July 4th, 2011, 6:46 am

September 1st, 2018, 7:42 am #7

Kaizeler wrote:Surely that would have been a record. Apart from some trivial examples in two-team groups, the only comparable result I remember is Greece qualifying for Euro 2004 with 8 goals in 8 games. Their results were, sequentially, 0-2, 0-2, 2-0, 2-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0. They were probably trying to do the football equivalent of the Konami code.
That's impressive dedication to boring their way through the entire tournament (I'm assuming based on the scorelines), stretches back further than most people would've thought. Or they qualified exactly as people would've imagined they did.

Adding in their goals at the Euros it's a total of 15 goals in 14 matches.
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Joined: April 7th, 2007, 12:28 pm

September 4th, 2018, 9:07 pm #8

Kaizeler wrote:
mattsanger92 wrote:(or if England then slipped up and Wales qualified with not only 0 conceded but 7 goals scored, less than the number of matches played).
Surely that would have been a record. Apart from some trivial examples in two-team groups, the only comparable result I remember is Greece qualifying for Euro 2004 with 8 goals in 8 games. Their results were, sequentially, 0-2, 0-2, 2-0, 2-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0.
Some efforts from 2018:
Panama qualified with P10 F9 A10  (in the hex) and P6 F7 A5 in the previous group stage.
Morocco with P6 F11 A0  (or P8 F13 A1 if you could the prelim round)
Iran with P10 F10 A2 (final round)
Argentina with P18 F19 A16.

2014
Iran with P8 F8 A2 (final round)

2010
North Korea in two group stages P6 F4 A0, then P8 F7 A5.

2006
Serbia-Montenegro P10 F16 A1

etc
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Joined: July 4th, 2011, 6:46 am

September 5th, 2018, 2:40 pm #9

Shouldn't you be busy celebrating?

This time last week I was hoping I'd get to say that in my lifetime Wales only ever qualify for major football tournaments hosted by France (technically still true 😢), now I guess I'm stuck saying that in my lifetime Scotland only ever qualify for World Cups hosted by France...
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Joined: April 7th, 2007, 12:28 pm

September 5th, 2018, 4:52 pm #10

Your investigations appear to show that France host too many tournaments. Or not enough.

Despite the motivation of that article, and the tone of those that it tried to counter, is it fair to say that the reason Scotland qualified this time was largely because their group was weaker than usual?
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Joined: October 31st, 2006, 5:16 pm

September 5th, 2018, 5:27 pm #11

nfm24 wrote: Your investigations appear to show that France host too many tournaments. Or not enough.

Despite the motivation of that article, and the tone of those that it tried to counter, is it fair to say that the reason Scotland qualified this time was largely because their group was weaker than usual?
I think a lot of the reason they qualified has to do with the increase from 16 to 24 teams in the final tournament, which was also in place in 2015 - Scotland almost qualified then as well.  This meant an increase of 4 1/2 teams to 9 teams qualifying from Europe.

The makeup of their group was similar to 2015 (it was a 6-team group in 2015 instead of a 5-team group) - a team technically stronger than Scotland (Switzerland instead of Sweden), a higher middle-ranked team (Poland both times), a lower middle-ranked team (Belarus instead of Northern Ireland and Bosnia & Herzegovina) and a weaker team (Albania instead of Faroe Islands).
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Joined: July 4th, 2011, 6:46 am

September 5th, 2018, 5:32 pm #12

nfm24 wrote:Your investigations appear to show that France host too many tournaments. Or not enough.
Yes. Also yes.

They do seem to be on a bit of a roll on that front lately, hopefully Brexit doesn't lead to the Chunnel being bricked up.
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Joined: April 7th, 2007, 12:28 pm

September 5th, 2018, 5:44 pm #13

Am I displaying ignorance by assuming that Switzerland is about the easiest top seed possible?
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Joined: April 5th, 2012, 10:54 am

September 5th, 2018, 5:50 pm #14

TheRoonBa wrote:The makeup of their group was similar to 2015 (it was a 6-team group in 2015 instead of a 5-team group) - a team technically stronger than Scotland (Switzerland instead of Sweden), a higher middle-ranked team (Poland both times), a lower middle-ranked team (Belarus instead of Northern Ireland and Bosnia & Herzegovina) and a weaker team (Albania instead of Faroe Islands).
Pretty much, except this time round the top three teams are slightly closer to eachother, strength-wise.
Of course I couldn't resist making up a chart:
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Joined: October 31st, 2006, 5:16 pm

September 5th, 2018, 6:26 pm #15

nfm24 wrote: Am I displaying ignorance by assuming that Switzerland is about the easiest top seed possible?
They were the second easiest, after Italy. Scotland were the 3rd hardest 2nd seeds.
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Joined: October 31st, 2006, 5:16 pm

September 5th, 2018, 6:29 pm #16

Kaizeler wrote: Pretty much, except this time round the top three teams are slightly closer to eachother, strength-wise.
Of course I couldn't resist making up a chart:
Wow, I just plucked this surmisal from my head.  But your charts seem to show that Switzerland being worse than Sweden was offset by Poland being better in 2019 qualifying than they were in 2015 qualifying, thus making the Top 3 pretty much equally as hard.  My head wouldn't be able to show this with as much clarity.
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Joined: April 7th, 2007, 12:28 pm

September 5th, 2018, 6:37 pm #17

TheRoonBa wrote:My head wouldn't be able to show this with as much clarity.
If we shaved it and used a marker pen to plot Kaizeler's data, allowing for the non-spherical curvature of your skull, perhaps using a complex system of barber's mirrors, it might.
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Joined: October 31st, 2006, 5:16 pm

September 5th, 2018, 6:39 pm #18

nfm24 wrote:
TheRoonBa wrote:My head wouldn't be able to show this with as much clarity.
If we shaved it and used a marker pen to plot Kaizeler's data, allowing for the non-spherical curvature of your skull, perhaps using a complex system of barber's mirrors, it might.
I fear my mole would cause an error...
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Joined: April 7th, 2007, 12:28 pm

September 5th, 2018, 6:41 pm #19

You might have to wear a swimming cap then.  We can't have erroneous data in ranking related output.
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Joined: October 31st, 2006, 5:16 pm

September 5th, 2018, 6:44 pm #20

I knew I came here for a reason.
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Joined: April 7th, 2007, 12:28 pm

September 5th, 2018, 6:46 pm #21

In fact, as part of your commitment to sporting accuracy, you should wear a sandwich board and swimming cap at all times on the off-chance that a passing nerd attempts to project a chart upon you.
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Joined: October 31st, 2006, 5:16 pm

September 5th, 2018, 6:49 pm #22

Passing nerds are the worst kind.  A true nerd would be more physically circumspect.
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Joined: April 7th, 2007, 12:28 pm

September 5th, 2018, 7:08 pm #23

kaiz.jpg
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Joined: October 31st, 2006, 5:16 pm

September 5th, 2018, 7:18 pm #24

Somebody seems to have worked this out before.
CHUTE.png
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Joined: April 7th, 2007, 12:28 pm

September 5th, 2018, 7:22 pm #25

index.gif

It's all been worked out before.
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Joined: October 31st, 2006, 5:16 pm

September 5th, 2018, 7:29 pm #26

nfm24 wrote: index.gif

It's all been worked out before.
Every international football match that has ever been played has a result that was known at the time of the match, but which may not now survive in any form conducive to recovering the result.

*Runs away (screaming, stopping for breath occasionally, pulling out hairs randomly).  Quick, Kaizeler, draw a graph on me.
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Joined: April 7th, 2007, 12:28 pm

September 5th, 2018, 8:14 pm #27

I wonder what proportion of actual match results are known, and how to estimate this.
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Joined: April 5th, 2012, 10:54 am

September 6th, 2018, 7:09 am #28

That's unknown at this stage.
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Joined: October 31st, 2006, 5:16 pm

September 6th, 2018, 7:27 am #29

What about "unknowable unknowns"?
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Joined: April 7th, 2007, 12:28 pm

September 6th, 2018, 8:51 am #30

stuff.jpg
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