Will there be another Bronzo?

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Will there be another Bronzo?

Pamsaplenty
Paneristi
Joined: January 31st, 2007, 12:06 am

July 28th, 2012, 11:06 pm #1

The distribution of these pieces has been more mysterious than previoius coveted pieces; according to some, they just found them in the store, others were on a list etc. I don't thinnk there is any magic recipe here. Maybe if you own a forum or something you'll have a better shot at a piece, I don't know.

Let's instead consider the facts as we know them. First the company is run owned by Richemont SA, and it appears that the parent does not tinker much with its subsidiaries--letting them make the call on production and styles etc. And this makes sense, why would you buy a company and start telling them what to do. Unless their margins aren't being fully tapped.

Well, coming from the investment industry (private equity, leveraged buyout area), I can share with you that when acquisitions occur they are done so for a variety of reasons; synergies (certainly this is the case), specialty (yep), ability to add directors, influence the firm's direction, provide capital for growth and let them grow the firm strategically providing guidance with a very speicalized Board. So from a financial perspective, the firm remains 100% owned by Richmont. And according to their recent financial filings, their sales and gross margins are up 29% as of March 31, 2012. You have to admit that's pretty incredible in this market.

This is not some jewelry production conglomerate, instead it's a currency hedging, options playing money making machine. This is a very sophisticated operation that has everything to do with maximizing profit, and they are doing that in one of the worst economies in history. So while I can't find subsidiary margin information (it's rolled-up), my guess is they track this very carefully and maintain growth projections that are incredibly competitive.

From a marketability perspective Panerai is well known for its limited production of pieces that are coveted. However, I point to the most recent production of the 292J, (the rise and fall of pig prices) and subsequent pieces that followed in the same form. Panerai had an incredibly difficult time producing these pieces and even pushed back the release of these pieces due to this fact, supposedly. Bronze is easier to work with, and from what I have read the material used to make the bronzo is not of the highest quality when it comes to purity of metal. But who cares, it's a watch piece not gold bullion, it's used for a watch case. And who knows, maybe this was done intentiionally so the piece would age more quickly. I don't know.

While metal has fluctuated, this is not precious and can be easily acquired. And it is not hard to work with (relatively speaking, PVD & Ceramic). In addition I machine metal as a hobby and can tell you first hand that bronze is not hard to work with--my CNC makes quick work of it. And once you have the G-Codes in the system programmed, they can be pumped out all day no worries--unlike the PVD and Ceramic pieces (cost is much less as well for the brass cases--margins are also higher on these pieces given the cost of the materials--my opinion).

So the only reason I can see for them to NOT make any more pieces would to increase the value of the ones that are "already sold". There's no revenue to be made there. However, does this create even more demand for the brand? I don't think so. Instead, I propose it creates more demand for bronze pieces, and from what I'm seeing, if prospective buyers can't get a Panerai, they are getting other bronze pieces. Not all, but many. So what is the opportunity cost for not producing more pieces? Unknown, but it is probably in the millions (lost revenue). I wonder what the potential is to maximize profit while maintaining demand beyond the pieces produced. Is that number 1,000? Maybe for the first year.

While I could put together some fancy graphs and charts based upon previous models (previous marketing campaigns, the futher back you go the grayer it becomes), it would do little to provide details as to where they are heading.

I can't see Panerai making one Bronze piece and rolling-up the carpet. The production cost and opportunity costs are too high.

My guess,..you'll see more bronze pieces coming. Buying one for $25k is crazy money in my opinion. If it were a security, I'd sell them short on a long contract with a cover to protect myself.

We'll see...

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docfink
Paneristi
docfink
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Joined: December 14th, 2006, 6:22 pm

July 28th, 2012, 11:44 pm #2

I felt some frustration when I wasn't one of the lucky ones for the (far more limited) 360, but you're probably right.

There will likely be another bronze Panerai down the road, but I doubt the price will drop much on the 382 as I don't think this model will be made again.

david
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jcatral14
Paneristi
Joined: November 9th, 2009, 1:55 am

July 29th, 2012, 12:50 am #3

The distribution of these pieces has been more mysterious than previoius coveted pieces; according to some, they just found them in the store, others were on a list etc. I don't thinnk there is any magic recipe here. Maybe if you own a forum or something you'll have a better shot at a piece, I don't know.

Let's instead consider the facts as we know them. First the company is run owned by Richemont SA, and it appears that the parent does not tinker much with its subsidiaries--letting them make the call on production and styles etc. And this makes sense, why would you buy a company and start telling them what to do. Unless their margins aren't being fully tapped.

Well, coming from the investment industry (private equity, leveraged buyout area), I can share with you that when acquisitions occur they are done so for a variety of reasons; synergies (certainly this is the case), specialty (yep), ability to add directors, influence the firm's direction, provide capital for growth and let them grow the firm strategically providing guidance with a very speicalized Board. So from a financial perspective, the firm remains 100% owned by Richmont. And according to their recent financial filings, their sales and gross margins are up 29% as of March 31, 2012. You have to admit that's pretty incredible in this market.

This is not some jewelry production conglomerate, instead it's a currency hedging, options playing money making machine. This is a very sophisticated operation that has everything to do with maximizing profit, and they are doing that in one of the worst economies in history. So while I can't find subsidiary margin information (it's rolled-up), my guess is they track this very carefully and maintain growth projections that are incredibly competitive.

From a marketability perspective Panerai is well known for its limited production of pieces that are coveted. However, I point to the most recent production of the 292J, (the rise and fall of pig prices) and subsequent pieces that followed in the same form. Panerai had an incredibly difficult time producing these pieces and even pushed back the release of these pieces due to this fact, supposedly. Bronze is easier to work with, and from what I have read the material used to make the bronzo is not of the highest quality when it comes to purity of metal. But who cares, it's a watch piece not gold bullion, it's used for a watch case. And who knows, maybe this was done intentiionally so the piece would age more quickly. I don't know.

While metal has fluctuated, this is not precious and can be easily acquired. And it is not hard to work with (relatively speaking, PVD & Ceramic). In addition I machine metal as a hobby and can tell you first hand that bronze is not hard to work with--my CNC makes quick work of it. And once you have the G-Codes in the system programmed, they can be pumped out all day no worries--unlike the PVD and Ceramic pieces (cost is much less as well for the brass cases--margins are also higher on these pieces given the cost of the materials--my opinion).

So the only reason I can see for them to NOT make any more pieces would to increase the value of the ones that are "already sold". There's no revenue to be made there. However, does this create even more demand for the brand? I don't think so. Instead, I propose it creates more demand for bronze pieces, and from what I'm seeing, if prospective buyers can't get a Panerai, they are getting other bronze pieces. Not all, but many. So what is the opportunity cost for not producing more pieces? Unknown, but it is probably in the millions (lost revenue). I wonder what the potential is to maximize profit while maintaining demand beyond the pieces produced. Is that number 1,000? Maybe for the first year.

While I could put together some fancy graphs and charts based upon previous models (previous marketing campaigns, the futher back you go the grayer it becomes), it would do little to provide details as to where they are heading.

I can't see Panerai making one Bronze piece and rolling-up the carpet. The production cost and opportunity costs are too high.

My guess,..you'll see more bronze pieces coming. Buying one for $25k is crazy money in my opinion. If it were a security, I'd sell them short on a long contract with a cover to protect myself.

We'll see...
I would think that given the reasons you stated, OP will come out with a 44mm bronze down the road. I'm feeling 243 in bronze with a production run of 500 per year
We'll see indeed...

In the meantime, I'll keep myself busy hunting down a brownie

-Jay in Northern NJ



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rioet
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rioet
Paneristi
Joined: January 23rd, 2011, 9:34 am

July 29th, 2012, 1:09 am #4

The distribution of these pieces has been more mysterious than previoius coveted pieces; according to some, they just found them in the store, others were on a list etc. I don't thinnk there is any magic recipe here. Maybe if you own a forum or something you'll have a better shot at a piece, I don't know.

Let's instead consider the facts as we know them. First the company is run owned by Richemont SA, and it appears that the parent does not tinker much with its subsidiaries--letting them make the call on production and styles etc. And this makes sense, why would you buy a company and start telling them what to do. Unless their margins aren't being fully tapped.

Well, coming from the investment industry (private equity, leveraged buyout area), I can share with you that when acquisitions occur they are done so for a variety of reasons; synergies (certainly this is the case), specialty (yep), ability to add directors, influence the firm's direction, provide capital for growth and let them grow the firm strategically providing guidance with a very speicalized Board. So from a financial perspective, the firm remains 100% owned by Richmont. And according to their recent financial filings, their sales and gross margins are up 29% as of March 31, 2012. You have to admit that's pretty incredible in this market.

This is not some jewelry production conglomerate, instead it's a currency hedging, options playing money making machine. This is a very sophisticated operation that has everything to do with maximizing profit, and they are doing that in one of the worst economies in history. So while I can't find subsidiary margin information (it's rolled-up), my guess is they track this very carefully and maintain growth projections that are incredibly competitive.

From a marketability perspective Panerai is well known for its limited production of pieces that are coveted. However, I point to the most recent production of the 292J, (the rise and fall of pig prices) and subsequent pieces that followed in the same form. Panerai had an incredibly difficult time producing these pieces and even pushed back the release of these pieces due to this fact, supposedly. Bronze is easier to work with, and from what I have read the material used to make the bronzo is not of the highest quality when it comes to purity of metal. But who cares, it's a watch piece not gold bullion, it's used for a watch case. And who knows, maybe this was done intentiionally so the piece would age more quickly. I don't know.

While metal has fluctuated, this is not precious and can be easily acquired. And it is not hard to work with (relatively speaking, PVD & Ceramic). In addition I machine metal as a hobby and can tell you first hand that bronze is not hard to work with--my CNC makes quick work of it. And once you have the G-Codes in the system programmed, they can be pumped out all day no worries--unlike the PVD and Ceramic pieces (cost is much less as well for the brass cases--margins are also higher on these pieces given the cost of the materials--my opinion).

So the only reason I can see for them to NOT make any more pieces would to increase the value of the ones that are "already sold". There's no revenue to be made there. However, does this create even more demand for the brand? I don't think so. Instead, I propose it creates more demand for bronze pieces, and from what I'm seeing, if prospective buyers can't get a Panerai, they are getting other bronze pieces. Not all, but many. So what is the opportunity cost for not producing more pieces? Unknown, but it is probably in the millions (lost revenue). I wonder what the potential is to maximize profit while maintaining demand beyond the pieces produced. Is that number 1,000? Maybe for the first year.

While I could put together some fancy graphs and charts based upon previous models (previous marketing campaigns, the futher back you go the grayer it becomes), it would do little to provide details as to where they are heading.

I can't see Panerai making one Bronze piece and rolling-up the carpet. The production cost and opportunity costs are too high.

My guess,..you'll see more bronze pieces coming. Buying one for $25k is crazy money in my opinion. If it were a security, I'd sell them short on a long contract with a cover to protect myself.

We'll see...
i see it will happen only if

1000pcs bronzo is been fully release and alot of members is buying at retail price. so if OP release a new model, it shud b close to the retail price as what existing buyer paying or else there will nt be any new model launch.

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mlpugh
Paneristi
mlpugh
Paneristi
Joined: April 9th, 2011, 3:45 pm

July 29th, 2012, 1:59 am #5

The distribution of these pieces has been more mysterious than previoius coveted pieces; according to some, they just found them in the store, others were on a list etc. I don't thinnk there is any magic recipe here. Maybe if you own a forum or something you'll have a better shot at a piece, I don't know.

Let's instead consider the facts as we know them. First the company is run owned by Richemont SA, and it appears that the parent does not tinker much with its subsidiaries--letting them make the call on production and styles etc. And this makes sense, why would you buy a company and start telling them what to do. Unless their margins aren't being fully tapped.

Well, coming from the investment industry (private equity, leveraged buyout area), I can share with you that when acquisitions occur they are done so for a variety of reasons; synergies (certainly this is the case), specialty (yep), ability to add directors, influence the firm's direction, provide capital for growth and let them grow the firm strategically providing guidance with a very speicalized Board. So from a financial perspective, the firm remains 100% owned by Richmont. And according to their recent financial filings, their sales and gross margins are up 29% as of March 31, 2012. You have to admit that's pretty incredible in this market.

This is not some jewelry production conglomerate, instead it's a currency hedging, options playing money making machine. This is a very sophisticated operation that has everything to do with maximizing profit, and they are doing that in one of the worst economies in history. So while I can't find subsidiary margin information (it's rolled-up), my guess is they track this very carefully and maintain growth projections that are incredibly competitive.

From a marketability perspective Panerai is well known for its limited production of pieces that are coveted. However, I point to the most recent production of the 292J, (the rise and fall of pig prices) and subsequent pieces that followed in the same form. Panerai had an incredibly difficult time producing these pieces and even pushed back the release of these pieces due to this fact, supposedly. Bronze is easier to work with, and from what I have read the material used to make the bronzo is not of the highest quality when it comes to purity of metal. But who cares, it's a watch piece not gold bullion, it's used for a watch case. And who knows, maybe this was done intentiionally so the piece would age more quickly. I don't know.

While metal has fluctuated, this is not precious and can be easily acquired. And it is not hard to work with (relatively speaking, PVD & Ceramic). In addition I machine metal as a hobby and can tell you first hand that bronze is not hard to work with--my CNC makes quick work of it. And once you have the G-Codes in the system programmed, they can be pumped out all day no worries--unlike the PVD and Ceramic pieces (cost is much less as well for the brass cases--margins are also higher on these pieces given the cost of the materials--my opinion).

So the only reason I can see for them to NOT make any more pieces would to increase the value of the ones that are "already sold". There's no revenue to be made there. However, does this create even more demand for the brand? I don't think so. Instead, I propose it creates more demand for bronze pieces, and from what I'm seeing, if prospective buyers can't get a Panerai, they are getting other bronze pieces. Not all, but many. So what is the opportunity cost for not producing more pieces? Unknown, but it is probably in the millions (lost revenue). I wonder what the potential is to maximize profit while maintaining demand beyond the pieces produced. Is that number 1,000? Maybe for the first year.

While I could put together some fancy graphs and charts based upon previous models (previous marketing campaigns, the futher back you go the grayer it becomes), it would do little to provide details as to where they are heading.

I can't see Panerai making one Bronze piece and rolling-up the carpet. The production cost and opportunity costs are too high.

My guess,..you'll see more bronze pieces coming. Buying one for $25k is crazy money in my opinion. If it were a security, I'd sell them short on a long contract with a cover to protect myself.

We'll see...
Brand is already expanding and preparing to capitalize on all opportunities...
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micah372
Paneristi
micah372
Paneristi
Joined: March 3rd, 2012, 1:55 am

July 29th, 2012, 2:00 am #6

The distribution of these pieces has been more mysterious than previoius coveted pieces; according to some, they just found them in the store, others were on a list etc. I don't thinnk there is any magic recipe here. Maybe if you own a forum or something you'll have a better shot at a piece, I don't know.

Let's instead consider the facts as we know them. First the company is run owned by Richemont SA, and it appears that the parent does not tinker much with its subsidiaries--letting them make the call on production and styles etc. And this makes sense, why would you buy a company and start telling them what to do. Unless their margins aren't being fully tapped.

Well, coming from the investment industry (private equity, leveraged buyout area), I can share with you that when acquisitions occur they are done so for a variety of reasons; synergies (certainly this is the case), specialty (yep), ability to add directors, influence the firm's direction, provide capital for growth and let them grow the firm strategically providing guidance with a very speicalized Board. So from a financial perspective, the firm remains 100% owned by Richmont. And according to their recent financial filings, their sales and gross margins are up 29% as of March 31, 2012. You have to admit that's pretty incredible in this market.

This is not some jewelry production conglomerate, instead it's a currency hedging, options playing money making machine. This is a very sophisticated operation that has everything to do with maximizing profit, and they are doing that in one of the worst economies in history. So while I can't find subsidiary margin information (it's rolled-up), my guess is they track this very carefully and maintain growth projections that are incredibly competitive.

From a marketability perspective Panerai is well known for its limited production of pieces that are coveted. However, I point to the most recent production of the 292J, (the rise and fall of pig prices) and subsequent pieces that followed in the same form. Panerai had an incredibly difficult time producing these pieces and even pushed back the release of these pieces due to this fact, supposedly. Bronze is easier to work with, and from what I have read the material used to make the bronzo is not of the highest quality when it comes to purity of metal. But who cares, it's a watch piece not gold bullion, it's used for a watch case. And who knows, maybe this was done intentiionally so the piece would age more quickly. I don't know.

While metal has fluctuated, this is not precious and can be easily acquired. And it is not hard to work with (relatively speaking, PVD & Ceramic). In addition I machine metal as a hobby and can tell you first hand that bronze is not hard to work with--my CNC makes quick work of it. And once you have the G-Codes in the system programmed, they can be pumped out all day no worries--unlike the PVD and Ceramic pieces (cost is much less as well for the brass cases--margins are also higher on these pieces given the cost of the materials--my opinion).

So the only reason I can see for them to NOT make any more pieces would to increase the value of the ones that are "already sold". There's no revenue to be made there. However, does this create even more demand for the brand? I don't think so. Instead, I propose it creates more demand for bronze pieces, and from what I'm seeing, if prospective buyers can't get a Panerai, they are getting other bronze pieces. Not all, but many. So what is the opportunity cost for not producing more pieces? Unknown, but it is probably in the millions (lost revenue). I wonder what the potential is to maximize profit while maintaining demand beyond the pieces produced. Is that number 1,000? Maybe for the first year.

While I could put together some fancy graphs and charts based upon previous models (previous marketing campaigns, the futher back you go the grayer it becomes), it would do little to provide details as to where they are heading.

I can't see Panerai making one Bronze piece and rolling-up the carpet. The production cost and opportunity costs are too high.

My guess,..you'll see more bronze pieces coming. Buying one for $25k is crazy money in my opinion. If it were a security, I'd sell them short on a long contract with a cover to protect myself.

We'll see...
You've done a great job of way over thinking it and determinedly taking all the fun out of it

________________________________________

If plexi is wrong, I don't want to be right.
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Bruno.M1
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Bruno.M1
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Joined: April 30th, 2005, 4:33 pm

July 29th, 2012, 8:05 am #7

The distribution of these pieces has been more mysterious than previoius coveted pieces; according to some, they just found them in the store, others were on a list etc. I don't thinnk there is any magic recipe here. Maybe if you own a forum or something you'll have a better shot at a piece, I don't know.

Let's instead consider the facts as we know them. First the company is run owned by Richemont SA, and it appears that the parent does not tinker much with its subsidiaries--letting them make the call on production and styles etc. And this makes sense, why would you buy a company and start telling them what to do. Unless their margins aren't being fully tapped.

Well, coming from the investment industry (private equity, leveraged buyout area), I can share with you that when acquisitions occur they are done so for a variety of reasons; synergies (certainly this is the case), specialty (yep), ability to add directors, influence the firm's direction, provide capital for growth and let them grow the firm strategically providing guidance with a very speicalized Board. So from a financial perspective, the firm remains 100% owned by Richmont. And according to their recent financial filings, their sales and gross margins are up 29% as of March 31, 2012. You have to admit that's pretty incredible in this market.

This is not some jewelry production conglomerate, instead it's a currency hedging, options playing money making machine. This is a very sophisticated operation that has everything to do with maximizing profit, and they are doing that in one of the worst economies in history. So while I can't find subsidiary margin information (it's rolled-up), my guess is they track this very carefully and maintain growth projections that are incredibly competitive.

From a marketability perspective Panerai is well known for its limited production of pieces that are coveted. However, I point to the most recent production of the 292J, (the rise and fall of pig prices) and subsequent pieces that followed in the same form. Panerai had an incredibly difficult time producing these pieces and even pushed back the release of these pieces due to this fact, supposedly. Bronze is easier to work with, and from what I have read the material used to make the bronzo is not of the highest quality when it comes to purity of metal. But who cares, it's a watch piece not gold bullion, it's used for a watch case. And who knows, maybe this was done intentiionally so the piece would age more quickly. I don't know.

While metal has fluctuated, this is not precious and can be easily acquired. And it is not hard to work with (relatively speaking, PVD & Ceramic). In addition I machine metal as a hobby and can tell you first hand that bronze is not hard to work with--my CNC makes quick work of it. And once you have the G-Codes in the system programmed, they can be pumped out all day no worries--unlike the PVD and Ceramic pieces (cost is much less as well for the brass cases--margins are also higher on these pieces given the cost of the materials--my opinion).

So the only reason I can see for them to NOT make any more pieces would to increase the value of the ones that are "already sold". There's no revenue to be made there. However, does this create even more demand for the brand? I don't think so. Instead, I propose it creates more demand for bronze pieces, and from what I'm seeing, if prospective buyers can't get a Panerai, they are getting other bronze pieces. Not all, but many. So what is the opportunity cost for not producing more pieces? Unknown, but it is probably in the millions (lost revenue). I wonder what the potential is to maximize profit while maintaining demand beyond the pieces produced. Is that number 1,000? Maybe for the first year.

While I could put together some fancy graphs and charts based upon previous models (previous marketing campaigns, the futher back you go the grayer it becomes), it would do little to provide details as to where they are heading.

I can't see Panerai making one Bronze piece and rolling-up the carpet. The production cost and opportunity costs are too high.

My guess,..you'll see more bronze pieces coming. Buying one for $25k is crazy money in my opinion. If it were a security, I'd sell them short on a long contract with a cover to protect myself.

We'll see...
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/24/fashi ... .html?_r=3



SINGAPORE In 2006, Angelo Bonati, chief executive of the watchmaker Officine Panerai and an avid yachtsman, was in Antiguas English Harbor and on his way to having a drink with friends when he saw an abandoned boat lying among the mangroves.
The hull was in bad shape but he instantly recognized a William Fife design. Fife, a legendary Scottish yacht builder in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, was renowned for the quality and classic lines of his boats, which were recognizable, too, by their trademark stylized Chinese dragon decorative scrollwork.
I went on board to visit it that day and I immediately thought it could become an ambassador for Panerai, Mr. Bonati said in a telephone interview. Two months later, we had acquired the boat.

The 22-meter, or 72-foot, Bermudan ketch, named the Eilean, had lost its masts. The sax board, the topmost plank, was split and the toe rail, the narrow strip running along the edges of the boats deck, was missing. But Panerai sent the ketch back to Italy on a cargo ship and had it restored by a Viareggio shipyard.

Relaunched in 2009, Eilean now occasionally sails in the Panerai Classic Yachts Challenge, an international regatta for classic and vintage yachts that the Florentine watch brand has been sponsoring since 2005.

In a bit of serendipity, making for a good marketing story, Panerai discovered that Eilean had been designed in 1936, the same year that Panerai designed the prototype for its first underwater watch for the Italian Navy.

The boat has now inspired Panerais new Luminor Submersible 1950 3-Days Automatic Bronzo PAM382, the first Panerai watch with a bronze case.

Looking through the deck of the boat, I noted that all the metallic fixtures were in bronze and I thought, why dont we realize a watch inspired by Eilean, which is why we made this special edition of 1,000 watches, Mr. Bonati said. The use of bronze gave the watch, a special look that makes it very unique and exclusive, he added.

Bronze is an unusual metal for high-end watchmaking, though not unheard of it has been used, for example, by Gérald Genta for the Gefica Safari and by the young Italian company Anonimo in several watches. The alloy is resistant to seawater corrosion and offers a high degree of structural strength. But it develops a muted sheen, or patina, with time that can put some people off though it also gives the watch an aged appearance that others find appealing.

The changes to the surface of the bronze alloy are front-loaded, said Su Jia Xian, a watch collector and journalist in Singapore. Most of the patina occurs early in use because of the oxidation layer which gradually forms. That contrasts with conventional watch metals like steel or gold, which constantly suffer wear and tear with use.

Mr. Su said he ordered one of the watches because he liked the idea of a patinas developing with time, giving character to the timepiece: And also, Im embarrassed to admit, a Panerai limited edition itself is appealing, since they are usually tough to get.

The Bronzo has a 47-millimeter, or 1.8-inch, case that is water-resistant to 300 meters. The watch incorporates an unidirectional rotating bezel, which was first introduced on the Egiziano, a model developed in the second half of the 1950s and supplied to the underwater commandos of the Egyptian Navy, in response to that navys request for an indestructible watch. The innovative feature helped divers to calculate the time of immersion, thanks to a graduated scale with embossed numerical index markers positioned at each of the four cardinal points.

The characteristic Panerai bridge protecting the winding crown, with the lever ensuring the perfect water-resistance of the crown itself, is also made of bronze.

The watchs automatic P.9000 caliber was designed and produced in the Officine Panerai manufacturing facility in Neuchâtel, Switzerland.

Antonius Kerssenbrock, general manager of Panerai in Southeast Asia, said the company had always liked to use unusual materials, pointing out that in recent years it had introduced a watch in ceramic, the Radiomir 8 Days Ceramica, and another watch incorporating a new composite material, the Luminor Composite Marina 1950 3 Days Automatic, created by an electrochemical process involving the transformation of aluminum.

Mr. Bonati said that reactions to the new bronze watch had been enthusiastic, with about 25 percent of the 1,000 limited edition watches committed to Asian retailers, 25 percent to Europe and the rest divided between the Middle East and the United States. Its all sold, he said, referring to preorders by retailers.

Mr. Bonati said the company had no plans to do more bronze watches.

This was a very special edition. And I think thats why Panerai is appreciated by collectors, he said. Such a watch will not only keep its price but also increase in value.








Now if you have one or not doesn't change anything but I hate it when they say something and and change their mind after some time.
And the fact that it's owned by Richemont and they want to make more money doesn't imo matter.
They don't need another bronze to sell more. Whatever they make is sold after some time.
More, it's even better to have some special watches that will be special forever. Let's hope the 382 is one of them.


to quote Mr Bonati, I hope it will indeed stay a 'very special edition'



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Pamsaplenty
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July 29th, 2012, 1:00 pm #8

I would think that given the reasons you stated, OP will come out with a 44mm bronze down the road. I'm feeling 243 in bronze with a production run of 500 per year
We'll see indeed...

In the meantime, I'll keep myself busy hunting down a brownie

-Jay in Northern NJ



There is a higher demand for these pieces than there was say ten years ago, and for that reason I could see adding more pieces to the number of production units. Instead of 1,000 units, maybe 2,000. I believe there would still remain many who did not get the piece they desired--demand would still exceed supply.

Further, they could ask a higher price for their pieces, which has certainly been the case of the past several years and pieces.

In addition, if Panerai is moving to the boutique only distrbution strategy, it is very likely to see more pieces to make up for the lost revenue they will experience from not having more channels.
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Pamsaplenty
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July 29th, 2012, 1:41 pm #9

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/24/fashi ... .html?_r=3



SINGAPORE In 2006, Angelo Bonati, chief executive of the watchmaker Officine Panerai and an avid yachtsman, was in Antiguas English Harbor and on his way to having a drink with friends when he saw an abandoned boat lying among the mangroves.
The hull was in bad shape but he instantly recognized a William Fife design. Fife, a legendary Scottish yacht builder in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, was renowned for the quality and classic lines of his boats, which were recognizable, too, by their trademark stylized Chinese dragon decorative scrollwork.
I went on board to visit it that day and I immediately thought it could become an ambassador for Panerai, Mr. Bonati said in a telephone interview. Two months later, we had acquired the boat.

The 22-meter, or 72-foot, Bermudan ketch, named the Eilean, had lost its masts. The sax board, the topmost plank, was split and the toe rail, the narrow strip running along the edges of the boats deck, was missing. But Panerai sent the ketch back to Italy on a cargo ship and had it restored by a Viareggio shipyard.

Relaunched in 2009, Eilean now occasionally sails in the Panerai Classic Yachts Challenge, an international regatta for classic and vintage yachts that the Florentine watch brand has been sponsoring since 2005.

In a bit of serendipity, making for a good marketing story, Panerai discovered that Eilean had been designed in 1936, the same year that Panerai designed the prototype for its first underwater watch for the Italian Navy.

The boat has now inspired Panerais new Luminor Submersible 1950 3-Days Automatic Bronzo PAM382, the first Panerai watch with a bronze case.

Looking through the deck of the boat, I noted that all the metallic fixtures were in bronze and I thought, why dont we realize a watch inspired by Eilean, which is why we made this special edition of 1,000 watches, Mr. Bonati said. The use of bronze gave the watch, a special look that makes it very unique and exclusive, he added.

Bronze is an unusual metal for high-end watchmaking, though not unheard of it has been used, for example, by Gérald Genta for the Gefica Safari and by the young Italian company Anonimo in several watches. The alloy is resistant to seawater corrosion and offers a high degree of structural strength. But it develops a muted sheen, or patina, with time that can put some people off though it also gives the watch an aged appearance that others find appealing.

The changes to the surface of the bronze alloy are front-loaded, said Su Jia Xian, a watch collector and journalist in Singapore. Most of the patina occurs early in use because of the oxidation layer which gradually forms. That contrasts with conventional watch metals like steel or gold, which constantly suffer wear and tear with use.

Mr. Su said he ordered one of the watches because he liked the idea of a patinas developing with time, giving character to the timepiece: And also, Im embarrassed to admit, a Panerai limited edition itself is appealing, since they are usually tough to get.

The Bronzo has a 47-millimeter, or 1.8-inch, case that is water-resistant to 300 meters. The watch incorporates an unidirectional rotating bezel, which was first introduced on the Egiziano, a model developed in the second half of the 1950s and supplied to the underwater commandos of the Egyptian Navy, in response to that navys request for an indestructible watch. The innovative feature helped divers to calculate the time of immersion, thanks to a graduated scale with embossed numerical index markers positioned at each of the four cardinal points.

The characteristic Panerai bridge protecting the winding crown, with the lever ensuring the perfect water-resistance of the crown itself, is also made of bronze.

The watchs automatic P.9000 caliber was designed and produced in the Officine Panerai manufacturing facility in Neuchâtel, Switzerland.

Antonius Kerssenbrock, general manager of Panerai in Southeast Asia, said the company had always liked to use unusual materials, pointing out that in recent years it had introduced a watch in ceramic, the Radiomir 8 Days Ceramica, and another watch incorporating a new composite material, the Luminor Composite Marina 1950 3 Days Automatic, created by an electrochemical process involving the transformation of aluminum.

Mr. Bonati said that reactions to the new bronze watch had been enthusiastic, with about 25 percent of the 1,000 limited edition watches committed to Asian retailers, 25 percent to Europe and the rest divided between the Middle East and the United States. Its all sold, he said, referring to preorders by retailers.

Mr. Bonati said the company had no plans to do more bronze watches.

This was a very special edition. And I think thats why Panerai is appreciated by collectors, he said. Such a watch will not only keep its price but also increase in value.








Now if you have one or not doesn't change anything but I hate it when they say something and and change their mind after some time.
And the fact that it's owned by Richemont and they want to make more money doesn't imo matter.
They don't need another bronze to sell more. Whatever they make is sold after some time.
More, it's even better to have some special watches that will be special forever. Let's hope the 382 is one of them.


to quote Mr Bonati, I hope it will indeed stay a 'very special edition'


That is a great story and sounds Panerai to the bone, and I appreciate the history of the why they chose to make the piece. But I recall a similar story about the ceramic piece.

Also, not ALL Panerai sell (check your local "authorized dealer"--not boutique" for the white elephant Ferrari watches, which are probably FINALLY gone from the shelves. I received so many calls from dealers around the country (probably seven) wanting me to buy a Ferrari Panerai that I knew something had gone wrong. The AD's could not sell them, and Panerai does not give AD's the ability to pick and choose their inventory, besides special orders of course (wait and you may or may not get a piece).

Panerai sends them what they want the AD's to sell. So many AD's were not all too happy when they were getting these pieces they could not sell, and it certainly contributed to their overhead. Panerais aren't sold at a discount. Wanna bet?! I could have bought half a dozen at over 20% off each. The AD's were pissed they had to carry pieces they could not sell. So not ALL Panerai sell all of the time. In addition, chat with an AD you know well that won't BS you and see what they say about getting coveted pieces--you'll get an ear full. I think the word I was told several times is they are tired of getting the "Pedestrian" pieces and the boutiques get all of the sweet ones. This isn't to say they don't get any, but boy you touch a nerve when you bring this up. I could drop dealer names here but that would not serve anyone well, nor would it help my relationship with them that I value, but you know it's true.

I was on a Ferrari owner's list and was getting calls from dealers who had apparently been using the list for prospecting calls to move the pieces--very aggressive strategy, but I admire a resourceful salesperson. Needless to say, I dropped into a dealer one day while traveling out of town and was surprised to hear they had six Ferrari pieces in inventory and they couldn't give them away, from what the salesperson told me--certainly an exaggeration. But It shows you not everything Panerai touches is golden, not even a Ferrari. Who would have guessed that would have not worked; Italian car, Italian watch.

From a subsidiary perspective, Mr. Bonati does not own 1% of Panerai, according to the March 31 financials, which is quite unusual in the acquisition of a company. Usually you require the key persons to continue to operate and serve on the board of the business acquired, with much of their compensation and stock tied to production and profit margins, both targeted growth and nets for them to get the rest of their payout. However not all information is made public overseas like it is here in the US--we have very strict disclosure rules regarding compensation and ownership etc. That said, I am convinced Mr. Bonati still has significant influence over what happens at Panerai, but it is HEAVILY tempered by production and profit objectives set by the parent.

There are many of former owners that have been discarded by their parent companies when their "ideals" get in the way of profit, growth and the strategic planning of the company. However, in reviewing the financials, the margins are strong and growth is steady--a nice thing to have. I found it difficult to find Panerai specific financials, instead they were consolidated from all the subs. I'll dig deeper and see what else I can find for grins. I did not review the debt servicing or leverage, and given the amount of esoteric financial products this firm uses, I would not be surprised to see little.

Also, in reading the article regarding the bronze piece; there's nothing romantic or speical about using bronze for a watch, it's been done for decades now, nor is the material require ovens, chemical processes or hardening procedures. It's a hunk or well machined metal into a wonderful watch. What is so intriguing about the piece is they left it bare of protection--nothing protects the surface so it oxidizes. What a thought, people will want this? And they were right. Funny thing, when they announced this piece I thought, beautiful. No one will want this so I'll be able to get one. Lol...so it goes.

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Pamsaplenty
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July 29th, 2012, 1:42 pm #10

You've done a great job of way over thinking it and determinedly taking all the fun out of it

________________________________________

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Close your eyes and it's all just a dream. Reality is what you make of it...
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Pamsaplenty
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July 29th, 2012, 1:44 pm #11

i see it will happen only if

1000pcs bronzo is been fully release and alot of members is buying at retail price. so if OP release a new model, it shud b close to the retail price as what existing buyer paying or else there will nt be any new model launch.

Panerai does not gouge, they set a price and accept the margin that goes with the piece whether it's a blockbuster or not.
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Pamsaplenty
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July 29th, 2012, 1:45 pm #12

I felt some frustration when I wasn't one of the lucky ones for the (far more limited) 360, but you're probably right.

There will likely be another bronze Panerai down the road, but I doubt the price will drop much on the 382 as I don't think this model will be made again.

david
Yes to everything.

Agree.
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jcatral14
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Joined: November 9th, 2009, 1:55 am

July 29th, 2012, 2:24 pm #13

There is a higher demand for these pieces than there was say ten years ago, and for that reason I could see adding more pieces to the number of production units. Instead of 1,000 units, maybe 2,000. I believe there would still remain many who did not get the piece they desired--demand would still exceed supply.

Further, they could ask a higher price for their pieces, which has certainly been the case of the past several years and pieces.

In addition, if Panerai is moving to the boutique only distrbution strategy, it is very likely to see more pieces to make up for the lost revenue they will experience from not having more channels.
the sudden explosion of boutiques all over the place. More boutiques = more OP sales channels therefore they keep more of the profits internally.

-Jay in Northern NJ



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Bruno.M1
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Bruno.M1
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July 29th, 2012, 2:59 pm #14

That is a great story and sounds Panerai to the bone, and I appreciate the history of the why they chose to make the piece. But I recall a similar story about the ceramic piece.

Also, not ALL Panerai sell (check your local "authorized dealer"--not boutique" for the white elephant Ferrari watches, which are probably FINALLY gone from the shelves. I received so many calls from dealers around the country (probably seven) wanting me to buy a Ferrari Panerai that I knew something had gone wrong. The AD's could not sell them, and Panerai does not give AD's the ability to pick and choose their inventory, besides special orders of course (wait and you may or may not get a piece).

Panerai sends them what they want the AD's to sell. So many AD's were not all too happy when they were getting these pieces they could not sell, and it certainly contributed to their overhead. Panerais aren't sold at a discount. Wanna bet?! I could have bought half a dozen at over 20% off each. The AD's were pissed they had to carry pieces they could not sell. So not ALL Panerai sell all of the time. In addition, chat with an AD you know well that won't BS you and see what they say about getting coveted pieces--you'll get an ear full. I think the word I was told several times is they are tired of getting the "Pedestrian" pieces and the boutiques get all of the sweet ones. This isn't to say they don't get any, but boy you touch a nerve when you bring this up. I could drop dealer names here but that would not serve anyone well, nor would it help my relationship with them that I value, but you know it's true.

I was on a Ferrari owner's list and was getting calls from dealers who had apparently been using the list for prospecting calls to move the pieces--very aggressive strategy, but I admire a resourceful salesperson. Needless to say, I dropped into a dealer one day while traveling out of town and was surprised to hear they had six Ferrari pieces in inventory and they couldn't give them away, from what the salesperson told me--certainly an exaggeration. But It shows you not everything Panerai touches is golden, not even a Ferrari. Who would have guessed that would have not worked; Italian car, Italian watch.

From a subsidiary perspective, Mr. Bonati does not own 1% of Panerai, according to the March 31 financials, which is quite unusual in the acquisition of a company. Usually you require the key persons to continue to operate and serve on the board of the business acquired, with much of their compensation and stock tied to production and profit margins, both targeted growth and nets for them to get the rest of their payout. However not all information is made public overseas like it is here in the US--we have very strict disclosure rules regarding compensation and ownership etc. That said, I am convinced Mr. Bonati still has significant influence over what happens at Panerai, but it is HEAVILY tempered by production and profit objectives set by the parent.

There are many of former owners that have been discarded by their parent companies when their "ideals" get in the way of profit, growth and the strategic planning of the company. However, in reviewing the financials, the margins are strong and growth is steady--a nice thing to have. I found it difficult to find Panerai specific financials, instead they were consolidated from all the subs. I'll dig deeper and see what else I can find for grins. I did not review the debt servicing or leverage, and given the amount of esoteric financial products this firm uses, I would not be surprised to see little.

Also, in reading the article regarding the bronze piece; there's nothing romantic or speical about using bronze for a watch, it's been done for decades now, nor is the material require ovens, chemical processes or hardening procedures. It's a hunk or well machined metal into a wonderful watch. What is so intriguing about the piece is they left it bare of protection--nothing protects the surface so it oxidizes. What a thought, people will want this? And they were right. Funny thing, when they announced this piece I thought, beautiful. No one will want this so I'll be able to get one. Lol...so it goes.
Believe me, there is one I know VERY well

And I do agree on this one 'they are tired of getting the "Pedestrian" pieces and the boutiques get all of the sweet ones'
and this pisses me of too. It's a shame Panerai discriminates AD, especially when some of these AD are selling Panerai since more than 10 years. The AD are also responsible for the succes of the brand.

Believe me, if there comes a day that I can order only the mainstream pieces at my AD and the more special pieces only via a boutique .... well they can put their watches xxx ( this would be censored lol )

On the other hand, I do not agree with your thought about the Ferrari watches. You are right they did not sell but that was imo predictable.
Girard Perregaux tried it too and the didn't succeed neither. People just don't want such a stupid Ferrari logo on their watch. That would maybe work on a 200 usd watch but not on a high end piece.
When buying expensive watches we buy a brand which is famous in the watchworld and we don't need extra names on the dial, especially when these brand names have nothing to do with horlogerie.

If they would have used exactly the same watch ( case) for a new Panerai watch and don't put the Ferrari crap on it, I'm sure it would have sold damn well. There was nothing wrong with the design. But calling it a Ferrari watch ???
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Pamsaplenty
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July 29th, 2012, 4:47 pm #15

The Ferrari watch was a great piece, but you're right, put a pony on it and it got hosed. Interesting article...

http://www.luxist.com/2010/03/04/panera ... -break-up/
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Gregesq
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Gregesq
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July 29th, 2012, 4:48 pm #16

The distribution of these pieces has been more mysterious than previoius coveted pieces; according to some, they just found them in the store, others were on a list etc. I don't thinnk there is any magic recipe here. Maybe if you own a forum or something you'll have a better shot at a piece, I don't know.

Let's instead consider the facts as we know them. First the company is run owned by Richemont SA, and it appears that the parent does not tinker much with its subsidiaries--letting them make the call on production and styles etc. And this makes sense, why would you buy a company and start telling them what to do. Unless their margins aren't being fully tapped.

Well, coming from the investment industry (private equity, leveraged buyout area), I can share with you that when acquisitions occur they are done so for a variety of reasons; synergies (certainly this is the case), specialty (yep), ability to add directors, influence the firm's direction, provide capital for growth and let them grow the firm strategically providing guidance with a very speicalized Board. So from a financial perspective, the firm remains 100% owned by Richmont. And according to their recent financial filings, their sales and gross margins are up 29% as of March 31, 2012. You have to admit that's pretty incredible in this market.

This is not some jewelry production conglomerate, instead it's a currency hedging, options playing money making machine. This is a very sophisticated operation that has everything to do with maximizing profit, and they are doing that in one of the worst economies in history. So while I can't find subsidiary margin information (it's rolled-up), my guess is they track this very carefully and maintain growth projections that are incredibly competitive.

From a marketability perspective Panerai is well known for its limited production of pieces that are coveted. However, I point to the most recent production of the 292J, (the rise and fall of pig prices) and subsequent pieces that followed in the same form. Panerai had an incredibly difficult time producing these pieces and even pushed back the release of these pieces due to this fact, supposedly. Bronze is easier to work with, and from what I have read the material used to make the bronzo is not of the highest quality when it comes to purity of metal. But who cares, it's a watch piece not gold bullion, it's used for a watch case. And who knows, maybe this was done intentiionally so the piece would age more quickly. I don't know.

While metal has fluctuated, this is not precious and can be easily acquired. And it is not hard to work with (relatively speaking, PVD & Ceramic). In addition I machine metal as a hobby and can tell you first hand that bronze is not hard to work with--my CNC makes quick work of it. And once you have the G-Codes in the system programmed, they can be pumped out all day no worries--unlike the PVD and Ceramic pieces (cost is much less as well for the brass cases--margins are also higher on these pieces given the cost of the materials--my opinion).

So the only reason I can see for them to NOT make any more pieces would to increase the value of the ones that are "already sold". There's no revenue to be made there. However, does this create even more demand for the brand? I don't think so. Instead, I propose it creates more demand for bronze pieces, and from what I'm seeing, if prospective buyers can't get a Panerai, they are getting other bronze pieces. Not all, but many. So what is the opportunity cost for not producing more pieces? Unknown, but it is probably in the millions (lost revenue). I wonder what the potential is to maximize profit while maintaining demand beyond the pieces produced. Is that number 1,000? Maybe for the first year.

While I could put together some fancy graphs and charts based upon previous models (previous marketing campaigns, the futher back you go the grayer it becomes), it would do little to provide details as to where they are heading.

I can't see Panerai making one Bronze piece and rolling-up the carpet. The production cost and opportunity costs are too high.

My guess,..you'll see more bronze pieces coming. Buying one for $25k is crazy money in my opinion. If it were a security, I'd sell them short on a long contract with a cover to protect myself.

We'll see...
In my opinion, Panerai is wise not to make more Bronzos merely because there was excess demand for the 382. The decision not to create a new bronze piece creates demand for limited editions generally, as people understand they cannot count on a later, "consolation" edition.

Since Eve and the apple, it's been a tried and true marketing strategy to tell someone she cannot have something and she wants it even more. Therefore, the Bronzo "lesson" is "better line up and buy the special editions you want because there won't be any more of them." The trick of course is to keep making things people want to buy, and in limited quantities.

Merely because the Bronzo sold out and is in high demand by itself probably is not a reason to make more. It would just commoditize it, which is contrary to the exclusivity strategy I think they are pursuing. Along the same lines, I think the boutique model is less about keeping profits in house and more about exclusivity. Although selling through boutiques means they don't have to sell "wholesale" to ADs, Panerai instead has to invest in stores, employees, overhead etc., which most definitely cuts into profits. I think the fewer places there are to buy Pams, the more exclusive they seem. Panerai also gets to control the sales experience, which means ensuring sales persons have adequate product knowledge, commitment to the brand, customer service, etc.

Anyway, just my opinion. I know nothing about the inner workings of Richemont or Panerai. As much as I would have liked a Bronzo, I appreciate Panerai's decision to limit them. I hope they resist the temptation to make as many watches as the market wants to buy.

My 0.02.









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Pamsaplenty
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July 29th, 2012, 5:26 pm #17

The distribution of these pieces has been more mysterious than previoius coveted pieces; according to some, they just found them in the store, others were on a list etc. I don't thinnk there is any magic recipe here. Maybe if you own a forum or something you'll have a better shot at a piece, I don't know.

Let's instead consider the facts as we know them. First the company is run owned by Richemont SA, and it appears that the parent does not tinker much with its subsidiaries--letting them make the call on production and styles etc. And this makes sense, why would you buy a company and start telling them what to do. Unless their margins aren't being fully tapped.

Well, coming from the investment industry (private equity, leveraged buyout area), I can share with you that when acquisitions occur they are done so for a variety of reasons; synergies (certainly this is the case), specialty (yep), ability to add directors, influence the firm's direction, provide capital for growth and let them grow the firm strategically providing guidance with a very speicalized Board. So from a financial perspective, the firm remains 100% owned by Richmont. And according to their recent financial filings, their sales and gross margins are up 29% as of March 31, 2012. You have to admit that's pretty incredible in this market.

This is not some jewelry production conglomerate, instead it's a currency hedging, options playing money making machine. This is a very sophisticated operation that has everything to do with maximizing profit, and they are doing that in one of the worst economies in history. So while I can't find subsidiary margin information (it's rolled-up), my guess is they track this very carefully and maintain growth projections that are incredibly competitive.

From a marketability perspective Panerai is well known for its limited production of pieces that are coveted. However, I point to the most recent production of the 292J, (the rise and fall of pig prices) and subsequent pieces that followed in the same form. Panerai had an incredibly difficult time producing these pieces and even pushed back the release of these pieces due to this fact, supposedly. Bronze is easier to work with, and from what I have read the material used to make the bronzo is not of the highest quality when it comes to purity of metal. But who cares, it's a watch piece not gold bullion, it's used for a watch case. And who knows, maybe this was done intentiionally so the piece would age more quickly. I don't know.

While metal has fluctuated, this is not precious and can be easily acquired. And it is not hard to work with (relatively speaking, PVD & Ceramic). In addition I machine metal as a hobby and can tell you first hand that bronze is not hard to work with--my CNC makes quick work of it. And once you have the G-Codes in the system programmed, they can be pumped out all day no worries--unlike the PVD and Ceramic pieces (cost is much less as well for the brass cases--margins are also higher on these pieces given the cost of the materials--my opinion).

So the only reason I can see for them to NOT make any more pieces would to increase the value of the ones that are "already sold". There's no revenue to be made there. However, does this create even more demand for the brand? I don't think so. Instead, I propose it creates more demand for bronze pieces, and from what I'm seeing, if prospective buyers can't get a Panerai, they are getting other bronze pieces. Not all, but many. So what is the opportunity cost for not producing more pieces? Unknown, but it is probably in the millions (lost revenue). I wonder what the potential is to maximize profit while maintaining demand beyond the pieces produced. Is that number 1,000? Maybe for the first year.

While I could put together some fancy graphs and charts based upon previous models (previous marketing campaigns, the futher back you go the grayer it becomes), it would do little to provide details as to where they are heading.

I can't see Panerai making one Bronze piece and rolling-up the carpet. The production cost and opportunity costs are too high.

My guess,..you'll see more bronze pieces coming. Buying one for $25k is crazy money in my opinion. If it were a security, I'd sell them short on a long contract with a cover to protect myself.

We'll see...
I wanted to add Asia, specifically China is the pushing their revenue numbers into the 20%, which according to Johann Rupert, CEO, Richemont. In addition, the margins are unsustainable as predicting China's disposable income is impossible. The Americas make up the smallest portion of revenues for them.

Phantom stock, or options, shares are how they are providing ownership sharing to the CEO's of the watch companies they own, infact they did some buybacks to generate cash to help pay these out, in the annual reports.

As we know, there's been a push into the boutiques, and the revenue growth numbers show this, from retail, from boutiques, versus wholesale, their AD's. Retail sales are up 3% over last year with expectations for them to continue to expand. Some bankers asked some hard questions about the expansion of boutiques, and to their own admission, they plan to have increased cost as they continue their expansion into the retail space where they own more of the margin.

Also, production limitations may not be so much driven by Panerai as it is their supplier of the movements they need to make the pieces. There are a lot of boutique manfacturers that are vying for these movements so they may not be able to acquire them. Interesting comment from Johan during the banking meeting.

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evertech
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evertech
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Joined: June 2nd, 2008, 6:43 am

July 30th, 2012, 4:16 am #18

The distribution of these pieces has been more mysterious than previoius coveted pieces; according to some, they just found them in the store, others were on a list etc. I don't thinnk there is any magic recipe here. Maybe if you own a forum or something you'll have a better shot at a piece, I don't know.

Let's instead consider the facts as we know them. First the company is run owned by Richemont SA, and it appears that the parent does not tinker much with its subsidiaries--letting them make the call on production and styles etc. And this makes sense, why would you buy a company and start telling them what to do. Unless their margins aren't being fully tapped.

Well, coming from the investment industry (private equity, leveraged buyout area), I can share with you that when acquisitions occur they are done so for a variety of reasons; synergies (certainly this is the case), specialty (yep), ability to add directors, influence the firm's direction, provide capital for growth and let them grow the firm strategically providing guidance with a very speicalized Board. So from a financial perspective, the firm remains 100% owned by Richmont. And according to their recent financial filings, their sales and gross margins are up 29% as of March 31, 2012. You have to admit that's pretty incredible in this market.

This is not some jewelry production conglomerate, instead it's a currency hedging, options playing money making machine. This is a very sophisticated operation that has everything to do with maximizing profit, and they are doing that in one of the worst economies in history. So while I can't find subsidiary margin information (it's rolled-up), my guess is they track this very carefully and maintain growth projections that are incredibly competitive.

From a marketability perspective Panerai is well known for its limited production of pieces that are coveted. However, I point to the most recent production of the 292J, (the rise and fall of pig prices) and subsequent pieces that followed in the same form. Panerai had an incredibly difficult time producing these pieces and even pushed back the release of these pieces due to this fact, supposedly. Bronze is easier to work with, and from what I have read the material used to make the bronzo is not of the highest quality when it comes to purity of metal. But who cares, it's a watch piece not gold bullion, it's used for a watch case. And who knows, maybe this was done intentiionally so the piece would age more quickly. I don't know.

While metal has fluctuated, this is not precious and can be easily acquired. And it is not hard to work with (relatively speaking, PVD & Ceramic). In addition I machine metal as a hobby and can tell you first hand that bronze is not hard to work with--my CNC makes quick work of it. And once you have the G-Codes in the system programmed, they can be pumped out all day no worries--unlike the PVD and Ceramic pieces (cost is much less as well for the brass cases--margins are also higher on these pieces given the cost of the materials--my opinion).

So the only reason I can see for them to NOT make any more pieces would to increase the value of the ones that are "already sold". There's no revenue to be made there. However, does this create even more demand for the brand? I don't think so. Instead, I propose it creates more demand for bronze pieces, and from what I'm seeing, if prospective buyers can't get a Panerai, they are getting other bronze pieces. Not all, but many. So what is the opportunity cost for not producing more pieces? Unknown, but it is probably in the millions (lost revenue). I wonder what the potential is to maximize profit while maintaining demand beyond the pieces produced. Is that number 1,000? Maybe for the first year.

While I could put together some fancy graphs and charts based upon previous models (previous marketing campaigns, the futher back you go the grayer it becomes), it would do little to provide details as to where they are heading.

I can't see Panerai making one Bronze piece and rolling-up the carpet. The production cost and opportunity costs are too high.

My guess,..you'll see more bronze pieces coming. Buying one for $25k is crazy money in my opinion. If it were a security, I'd sell them short on a long contract with a cover to protect myself.

We'll see...
nt

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