In-the-Hunt Futility Stats, Week 6, Bengals v. Colts

In-the-Hunt Futility Stats, Week 6, Bengals v. Colts

Joined: November 25th, 2007, 12:30 am

October 14th, 2011, 4:55 am #1

I know. This is getting monotonous. The point was made and hammered home. But let's carry this thing through and get a league-wide picture. This week Indianapolis comes to town to serve as a positive benchmark.

Presently the 0-5 Colts are uncharacteristically out of the hunt and not looking to climb in. We know the reason. After luxuriating for 13 seasons with Peyton Manning, their spoiled fans must endure a 1-year down cycle. Try not to melt into a whimpering pool of sympathy, OK?

More interesting for our purposes is what happened before the Manning era. The up-and-down Colts suffered a few really bad years from 1991-1997, but they were never Bunglesque for long.

So let's take a closer look: Week 6, Bengals versus Colts, 1991-2010.


Standard Preamble/Overview

- Weeks "in the hunt for a winning season" serves as a rough proxy for playoff contention. And thus for fans' hopes and happiness. We ultimately want a championship, right?

- To be in the hunt, a team can be no more than one game below .500 with no more than seven losses.

- During the season, a team can fall out of the hunt and then climb back in.

- An example running won-loss record for five weeks: 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3. This team was in the hunt after Weeks 1, 2, 3, and 5 (total = 4).

- Bye weeks are counted like any other week in the season. For example, the Bungs get a freebie if a bye comes while they're still in it. Why? This is all about the fans' experience. (By the way, there were two byes in '93.)

- Adjusted "percent weeks in the hunt" throws out the first week, as all teams get an automatic freebie.

- The time period covers Mike Brown's ownership on the Cincinnati Bengals franchise, counting only complete seasons (1991-2000).

- Tables compiled from data on pro-football-reference.com.


Bengals versus Colts

Bengals (repeat of graph shown in earlier posts):




Colts:




Quick Comments

- The Colts were "in the hunt" 76% of the time overall (based on adjusted percentage). Compare to a paltry 30% for the Bengals.

- Since 1999, the Colts are at an astronomical 96%. You won't find even a 3-year period for the Bengals that barely approaches that level.

- The Colts before Payton Manning (1991-1997) were in the hunt 53% of the time (adjusted). That covers seven years. The Bengals best 7-year cycle (2003-2009) is marginally better at 56%.

- How many times have the Colts hit 0% (adjusted)? Only three times in 20 seasons. How many times for the Bengals? Seven.

- Aside from those three terrible seasons, the worst the Colts ever sank was eight games in the hunt (twice). The Bengals have been better than eight games in the hunt only five times.


Previous posts

Week 1 Browns:  http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/th ... +v-+Browns

Week 2 Broncos:    http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/th ... v.+Broncos

Week 3 49ers:    http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/th ... s+v.+49ers

Week 4 Bills:   http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/th ... s+v.+Bills

Week 5 Jaguars:   http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/th ... v.+Jaguars



A Note on the Game

What a strange reversal of fortune. The Bungs will frolic in the hunt this season far more often than the Colts. It's a done deal, barring a miracle run for Indianapolis. Maybe that's why I have this unshakable premonition -- the Bungs will lose on Sunday. Irrational as it is, I can just feel it. I know.
_______________________________________
" Bell-cow quarterbacks are like queen bees. Only one can take you to the land of milk and honey."
~ What Mike Brown never quite said, but should have.
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Joined: December 16th, 2003, 4:17 am

October 14th, 2011, 2:22 pm #2

Comparing these two organizations is just unfair...

BMN
BMN
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Joined: January 9th, 2002, 2:23 pm

October 14th, 2011, 3:29 pm #3

Interesting Stat: Since we're going by "since 1991" which is the Mike Brown era, the Bengals have played the Colts more than they have any other non-divisional team. 13 times in the past 20 years (including every year from 1992-1999) and this Sunday will mark the 14th time in 21 years.

Their history:

1991: DNP
1992: Colts 21 Bengals 17
1993: Colts 9 Bengals 6
1994: Colts 17 Bengals 14
1995: Bengals 24 Colts 21 (OT) - this was week #1 but the Colts ended up making the playoffs
1996: Bengals 31 Colts 24 - this was week 17 but the Colts ended up making the playoffs
1997: Bengals 28 Colts 13
1998: Colts 39 Bengals 26 - Manning's rookie year
1999: Colts 31 Bengals 10
2000: DNP
2001: DNP
2002: Colts 28 Bengals 21
2003: DNP
2004: DNP
2005: Colts 45 Bengals 37
2006: Colts 34 Bengals 16
2007: DNP
2008: Colts 35 Bengals 3
2009: DNP
2010: Colts 23 Bengals 13

Colts are 7-0 with Peyton Manning at QB but of course this Sunday he will not be at the helm.
Ironically these two franchises paralleled each other in the 1990s. 1991-1994 both teams were typically cellar dwellers (Bengals finished last in the Central 1991-1993 and 3rd in 1994; Colts last in 1991 and 1993 middle of the pack 1992 and 1994). In 1995 the Colts rose to 9-7 and made the playoffs and repeated in 1996 going 9-7 with a Wild Card birth; the Bengals in that era went 7-9 and 8-8 in an era when the Steelers won the division every year.
The change came after each team tanked it. In 1997 the Colts flat-lined to 3-13 while the Bungs still finished 7-9 lead by Boomer Esiason and a Dead Cat Bounce. The Colts went out and drafted Manning and the rest is history. The Bungs dropped to 3-13 in 1998, and went out and drafted Akilli Smith, sealing the end to the Bruce Coslet era in Akilli's second year and the unsuccessful LeBeau era until the Carson/Marvin era began in 2003.
Of course, the Carson/Marvin era still saw the Bungs go 0-4 vs the Colts (although Carson did not play in the 2008 game).
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Joined: November 25th, 2007, 12:30 am

October 15th, 2011, 12:34 am #4

Thanks for posting the match-up history, Sam. Only three wins by the Bungs which oddly fell on three consecutive years, 1995-1997.

To me, the Colts were practically a dream team in the early 90's compared to the Bungs. Imagine, a winning record as early as 1992!
The change came after each team tanked it. In 1997 the Colts flat-lined to 3-13 while the Bungs still finished 7-9 lead by Boomer Esiason and a Dead Cat Bounce. The Colts went out and drafted Manning and the rest is history. The Bungs dropped to 3-13 in 1998...
Very representative. Other teams up-cycled as many as three of four times before the Bungs managed a winning record.
_______________________________________
" Bell-cow quarterbacks are like queen bees. Only one can take you to the land of milk and honey."
~ What Mike Brown never quite said, but should have.
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Joined: January 28th, 2007, 11:34 am

October 15th, 2011, 3:34 am #5

I will say Bungles 24, Colts 13.

And the Bungles will be the new talk of the town.





"So he got fired? Big deal. It's happened to the best of us. So he got kicked out of his house by his 400 lb'ed wife?!?!? That's probably better for him anyways."-OldSchooler on ChrisMBHater's absence
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Joined: November 25th, 2007, 12:30 am

October 16th, 2011, 8:27 pm #6

I know. This is getting monotonous. The point was made and hammered home. But let's carry this thing through and get a league-wide picture. This week Indianapolis comes to town to serve as a positive benchmark.

Presently the 0-5 Colts are uncharacteristically out of the hunt and not looking to climb in. We know the reason. After luxuriating for 13 seasons with Peyton Manning, their spoiled fans must endure a 1-year down cycle. Try not to melt into a whimpering pool of sympathy, OK?

More interesting for our purposes is what happened before the Manning era. The up-and-down Colts suffered a few really bad years from 1991-1997, but they were never Bunglesque for long.

So let's take a closer look: Week 6, Bengals versus Colts, 1991-2010.


Standard Preamble/Overview

- Weeks "in the hunt for a winning season" serves as a rough proxy for playoff contention. And thus for fans' hopes and happiness. We ultimately want a championship, right?

- To be in the hunt, a team can be no more than one game below .500 with no more than seven losses.

- During the season, a team can fall out of the hunt and then climb back in.

- An example running won-loss record for five weeks: 1-0, 1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 2-3. This team was in the hunt after Weeks 1, 2, 3, and 5 (total = 4).

- Bye weeks are counted like any other week in the season. For example, the Bungs get a freebie if a bye comes while they're still in it. Why? This is all about the fans' experience. (By the way, there were two byes in '93.)

- Adjusted "percent weeks in the hunt" throws out the first week, as all teams get an automatic freebie.

- The time period covers Mike Brown's ownership on the Cincinnati Bengals franchise, counting only complete seasons (1991-2000).

- Tables compiled from data on pro-football-reference.com.


Bengals versus Colts

Bengals (repeat of graph shown in earlier posts):




Colts:




Quick Comments

- The Colts were "in the hunt" 76% of the time overall (based on adjusted percentage). Compare to a paltry 30% for the Bengals.

- Since 1999, the Colts are at an astronomical 96%. You won't find even a 3-year period for the Bengals that barely approaches that level.

- The Colts before Payton Manning (1991-1997) were in the hunt 53% of the time (adjusted). That covers seven years. The Bengals best 7-year cycle (2003-2009) is marginally better at 56%.

- How many times have the Colts hit 0% (adjusted)? Only three times in 20 seasons. How many times for the Bengals? Seven.

- Aside from those three terrible seasons, the worst the Colts ever sank was eight games in the hunt (twice). The Bengals have been better than eight games in the hunt only five times.


Previous posts

Week 1 Browns:  http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/th ... +v-+Browns

Week 2 Broncos:    http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/th ... v.+Broncos

Week 3 49ers:    http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/th ... s+v.+49ers

Week 4 Bills:   http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/th ... s+v.+Bills

Week 5 Jaguars:   http://www.network54.com/Forum/90650/th ... v.+Jaguars



A Note on the Game

What a strange reversal of fortune. The Bungs will frolic in the hunt this season far more often than the Colts. It's a done deal, barring a miracle run for Indianapolis. Maybe that's why I have this unshakable premonition -- the Bungs will lose on Sunday. Irrational as it is, I can just feel it. I know.
For the second week in a row, a Bungs opponent made a huge foul-up to thwart their late comeback try. Bungs win 27-17 in a game that was closer than the final score suggests. But at 4-2, the Bungs are guaranteed to stay in the hunt for a total of at least ten weeks. (We count the bye.) That's better than 16 of the past 20 years.

Edit:

Oh yeah... that feeling I had was very wrong. Other teams are now donating victories in meaningful games. When it looks like they're going to beat the Bungs. This is totally outside my zone of experience.
Last edited by psychostats on October 16th, 2011, 8:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
_______________________________________
" Bell-cow quarterbacks are like queen bees. Only one can take you to the land of milk and honey."
~ What Mike Brown never quite said, but should have.
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Joined: January 28th, 2007, 11:34 am

October 16th, 2011, 9:24 pm #7

"I know. This is getting monotonous."


No, it's not. It's borderline comedy how all these sh*tty teams are much more competitive than the Bungles. How many teams is that? 31?

I would like to see the Lions for the past 20 years. I'll bet they're worse.






"So he got fired? Big deal. It's happened to the best of us. So he got kicked out of his house by his 400 lb'ed wife?!?!? That's probably better for him anyways."-OldSchooler on ChrisMBHater's absence
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