Draft lottery set

Joined: September 14th, 2007, 7:51 pm

March 18th, 2018, 5:06 am #1

With the Hitmen winning tonight and the Cougars losing in a shootout, the order of the six non-playoff teams is set now. The outcome of the Hitmen/Oil Kings game tomorrow won't change anything.

The odds of winning the bantam draft lottery:

Edmonton: 28.57%
Prince George: 23.81%
Calgary: 19.05%
Kootenay: 14.29%
Kamloops: 9.52%
Saskatoon: 4.76%

The winner of the lottery moves up two spots, so only Edmonton, Prince George, and Calgary can get the #1 overall pick. If Kootenay, Kamloops, or Saskatoon wins the lottery, Edmonton keeps the #1 pick because those three teams wouldn't move up far enough to get to #1. So the odds of ending up with the #1 overall pick:

Edmonton: 57.14%
Prince George: 23.81%
Calgary: 19.05%

The Hitmen can pick either 1st (if they win the lottery), 3rd (if Edmonton, Prince George, or Saskatoon wins the lottery), or 4th (if Kootenay or Kamloops win the lottery). The odds of them picking in each spot:

1st: 19.05%
3rd: 57.14%
4th: 23.81%

The Hitmen will have the 3rd pick in every subsequent round as well. So right now it looks like they will have eight picks in the first 71 picks of the draft:

First round:
#1, #3, or #4 overall - their own pick

Second round:
#25 overall - their own pick
#35 or #36 overall - Tri-City's pick from the Bean deal. Actual pick (#35/#36) depends on whether Tri-City wins or loses their final game tomorrow.
#43 overall - from Swift Current in the Malenstyn/Gennaro trade

Third round:
#47 overall - their own pick
#53 overall - from Seattle for Aaron Hyman

Fourth round:
#69 overall - their own pick
#71 overall - from Prince Albert in the Stallard/Coleman trade

Getting 8 of the top 71 2003-born players in western Canada is pretty good news for the 3-4 years in future.
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