The Zoo - The political debate thread

The Zoo - The political debate thread

Joined: September 5th, 2012, 10:32 am

September 28th, 2012, 7:10 am #1

Bascombe wrote:Saw this on facebook

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sec realist
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Joined: August 29th, 2012, 6:09 pm

September 28th, 2012, 7:39 am #2

This isn't meant as a dig at Mr. Romney, but it sure looks like his chances are fading fast. Nate Silver is very good at this kind of thing, and his predictions are trending away from him.

Live with egrets, not regrets.
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 3:23 pm

September 28th, 2012, 7:56 am #3

:lol:
You know, I was a lot more worried about Romney until I started looking at the methodology/assumptions of a lot of the polls/forecasts we've seen over the last 10-14 days. It make you wonder what the Dems know that is making them so scared.
"I'm Just Living The Dream!" - Chaz Reinhold
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sec realist
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September 28th, 2012, 7:59 am #4

Your'e not an unskewedpolls.com fan, are you?
Live with egrets, not regrets.
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 3:23 pm

September 28th, 2012, 8:11 am #5

Nope. I just build forecast models for a living. You only have to look at the internals for yourself.

It really makes you wonder.
"I'm Just Living The Dream!" - Chaz Reinhold
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Joined: September 6th, 2012, 7:13 am

September 28th, 2012, 8:15 am #6

Rasmussen is historically the most accurate...
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sec realist
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September 28th, 2012, 8:33 am #7

Confirmation bias is a funny thing, truly. I remember the 2004 election, searching through polling data and arguing that "cell phone only" voters were significantly underrepresented and that the models being used at the time were incorrect and skewed. I've been where you are, hoping against hope that I knew what the paid professionals - the guys who's entire careers are based on running the numbers, slicing them up, evaluating them and creating likelihoods - didn't. It was a lesson learned.

I guess the notion (that the polls are all biased) is somehow that the professionals, the ones whose reputations are on the line and future income prospects are based on getting polling data accurate, have all gotten together and created new models favoring President Obama? Or are they just suddenly incompetent?

We're talking several different polling agencies - across the political spectrum, mind you - who have independently and consistently arrived at virtually the same conclusions (including FOX News and Rasmussen, and their historical two to three point skew).
Rasmussen is historically the most accurate..
Some reading of Nate Silver would certainly make you question that assumption.

Live with egrets, not regrets.
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 3:23 pm

September 28th, 2012, 8:35 am #8

They take a very large data sample for weighting, independent of the poll being weighted.

The shifts in party ID weighting, turnout and likely voting assumptions in most of these other polls over the last couple of weeks are comical. If true, you would expect to see correlation in a whole lot of other data that just isn't there.

I was on Gallup's website at lunch yesterday and you can download their data tables if you spend enough time poking around.

Look at what they've done to their model over the past three weeks. They are counting on the fact that nobody is reading past the headline.

Give me 4 years of stats for Ole Miss and Bama and I could build a model and change the weighting in an afternoon to show you how Ole Miss has an 89% chance of winning this weekend.

You'd probably have to assume the OLine and DLine for Ole Miss we're going to increase their body mass by 40-50% in the next couple of days and take McCarron, Lacy & Yeldon out of the model, but the result would look great if you didn't look to close at how I got there.

Again, I wouldn't bet the rent money on it.
"I'm Just Living The Dream!" - Chaz Reinhold
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SECfan
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September 28th, 2012, 8:36 am #9

I think the polls may be less accurate this year based on the enthusiasm factor. The people that dislike Obama really dislike him and come hell or high water will get to the voting booth. It seems the people who will tell a pollster they will vote for the president are much more lax about it. Definitely not the enthusiasm of 4 years ago. Romney needs to pray the weather sucks on election day.
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 3:23 pm

September 28th, 2012, 8:41 am #10

When in doubt, check the data and play the stats.
"I'm Just Living The Dream!" - Chaz Reinhold
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sec realist
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Joined: August 29th, 2012, 6:09 pm

September 28th, 2012, 8:47 am #11

SEC Crucible wrote:When in doubt, check the data and play the stats.
Which is what the pollsters actually do, by the way.

Avatar bet for the duration of this year's college football season on who wins the race?

My map looks like this:



Go to 270towin.com and create your own, I'd like to see it.
Live with egrets, not regrets.
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 3:23 pm

September 28th, 2012, 8:53 am #12

sec realist wrote:
SEC Crucible wrote:When in doubt, check the data and play the stats.
Which is what the pollsters actually do, by the way.

Avatar bet for the duration of this year's college football season on who wins the race?

My map looks like this:



Go to 270towin.com and create your own, I'd like to see it.
Sure. Give me Romney +3% on the popular vote ad you're on. Should be a gimme based on the polls today.
"I'm Just Living The Dream!" - Chaz Reinhold
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 3:23 pm

September 28th, 2012, 8:57 am #13

RCP Average

Obama +4.1



FOX News

Obama +5



Rasmussen Tracking

Obama +1



Gallup Tracking

Obama +6



Bloomberg

Obama +6



Politico/GWU/Battleground

Obama +3



National Journal

Obama +7
Only Rasmussen has Obama ahead by less than 3.
"I'm Just Living The Dream!" - Chaz Reinhold
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Joined: August 30th, 2012, 2:29 pm

September 28th, 2012, 9:02 am #14

sec realist wrote:
Go to 270towin.com and create your own, I'd like to see it.
lol. 270towin.com is owned/created by a good friend of mine. He is really jacked up about his traffic numbers and the quality of the traffic.

Allan first created a website called myrateplan.com about 10 years ago to help people find the right cellphone plan. The real genius of it though was behind the scenes. He was paid six figures a year from multiple cellphone companies for the data about what people were searching for. The cellphone advice was just a front to get the data. Brilliant! :) Anyway he sold myrateplan.com on Wednesday and is starting to change his focus to 270towin.com. I've asked him a couple times if there is anything data wise that he is after with the site, and he continually says "no". He started it for fun before the last presidential election, and I think he plans on keeping it up now that he is retired.
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Joined: August 18th, 2012, 8:51 am

September 28th, 2012, 9:20 am #15

Everybody is playing nice on the politics thing right now, but a word of advice from the old school teacher. If it gets mean, I'm setting up a separate cage fight thread to keep it out of the CFB section.
Fair enough?
I don’t know if they were men or women running naked across the field. They had bags over their heads. - Yogi Berra
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sec realist
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September 28th, 2012, 9:47 am #16

SEC Crucible wrote: Sure. Give me Romney +3% on the popular vote ad you're on. Should be a gimme based on the polls today.
Not confident enough in a win outright? The popular vote is completely irrelevant, why should that be a part of the bet?

So what states do I have wrong? Where is Romney going to crack Obama's path to 270? Direct answers, please - I want something specific to 'chew' on.
Fair enough?
Absolutely.
Live with egrets, not regrets.
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sec realist
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September 28th, 2012, 9:48 am #17

SEC Crucible wrote: Only Rasmussen has Obama ahead by less than 3.
In 'poll speak,' that's an outlier.
Live with egrets, not regrets.
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Joined: September 6th, 2012, 7:13 am

September 28th, 2012, 9:56 am #18

sec realist wrote:
SEC Crucible wrote: Only Rasmussen has Obama ahead by less than 3.
In 'poll speak,' that's an outlier.
Not when you are awarded for accuracy....as Rasmussen is.
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 3:23 pm

September 28th, 2012, 9:59 am #19

sec realist wrote:
SEC Crucible wrote: Sure. Give me Romney +3% on the popular vote ad you're on. Should be a gimme based on the polls today.
Not confident enough in a win outright? The popular vote is completely irrelevant, why should that be a part of the bet?

So what states do I have wrong? Where is Romney going to crack Obama's path to 270? Direct answers, please - I want something specific to 'chew' on.
Fair enough?
Absolutely.
I'm not a gambler by nature. More of a card counter. I wouldn't place a bet on a team to win down by a field goal in the last two minutes either in case you ever feel the need to ask.

I'm not saying Romney's winning either the electoral college or the popular vote at this point. I just look at the assumptions in the polls and I'm dead certain he's not down 5-7 points. I'd say it's inside 3 on the popular vote.

I'll make that bet. Given the state of the polls you say you trust, I'm curious as to why you won't.
"I'm Just Living The Dream!" - Chaz Reinhold
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 3:23 pm

September 28th, 2012, 10:02 am #20

Vespula wrote:Everybody is playing nice on the politics thing right now, but a word of advice from the old school teacher. If it gets mean, I'm setting up a separate cage fight thread to keep it out of the CFB section.
Fair enough?
:D

See....you can see I'm playing nice when I smile.

I kinda like the cage fight idea though. Especially if it keeps politics off a thread about weekend plans.

:D
"I'm Just Living The Dream!" - Chaz Reinhold
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 3:23 pm

September 28th, 2012, 10:06 am #21

Why haven't I finished my project yet?

Oh wait......



:lol:
"I'm Just Living The Dream!" - Chaz Reinhold
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sec realist
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September 28th, 2012, 10:09 am #22

I use polls to make assessments as to where races are and where they're likely to go.

My bet offer was Obama or Romney to win - your not taking the bet indicates to me that you know the polls are credible.

And I'm still waiting on your state by state prediction, by the way.
Live with egrets, not regrets.
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 3:23 pm

September 28th, 2012, 11:17 am #23

Yeah....I'll get right on that for you. :roll:

Right after you tell me you've reviewed the Gallup internals for the past 3-4 weeks and you explain in detail why you agree with their assumptions in a 1,500 word essay. :D

In the meantime, I say the line is Romney -3% at worst and a lot of the national polls you've seen over the past few weeks have flawed assumptions. If you think they don't, spot me three and take the bet.
"I'm Just Living The Dream!" - Chaz Reinhold
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sec realist
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Joined: August 29th, 2012, 6:09 pm

September 28th, 2012, 11:19 am #24

Didn't think you could or would.

Live with egrets, not regrets.
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 8:46 am

September 29th, 2012, 8:52 am #25

I'm not going to read a single post on this thread, but I had to drop in and make known that the title of it made me happy.

KEEP IT HERE, jacktards.

8-)
To think, I did all that--and may I say, not in a shy way....
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 7:13 pm

September 29th, 2012, 11:12 am #26

I'm a little jaded by politics. Being a Mormon, I should be a Romney fan, right? I haven't been impressed with him as a candidate so far.

Frankly, I think America is at it's worst when there is a Democrat in the White House and a Democratic Congress or when there is a Republican in the White House with a Republican Congress. It's unhealthy. Laws get rubberstamped by the party that is in charge. There are alot of unintended consequences when laws aren't debated, aren't vetted. Lawmakers tend to be a little more honest and a little more thorough when there is the threat of a VETO hanging over the legislation they have worked so hard on. It's better that way.

I don't care which party holds the White House so long as the other party runs the congress. In my opinion having a Republican Congress made Bill Clinton a better president. We would have been alot better off if W had had a Democratic congress for alot longer in his term. One side controlling everything doesn't help anyone except those with greasy palms
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 7:16 pm

September 30th, 2012, 4:02 am #27

Basc - philosophically you may be correct. The founders wanted balance between the power of Massachusetts and Virginia and new York wanted to be a player. That works when there is interest in governing and all sides are committed to the country and not ideology. Presently there is no debate. The majority in Congress and the minority in the Senate, both of whom can stop progress, have stated that they have only one goal and that is the failure of this government. One man, usually Jim Demint, can stop a vote and debate in the Senate and does near daily. The staffs are usually there for one or both of two reasons - to promote their agenda and as a stepping stone to a very lucrative lobbying job. For there to be balance in government, both branches have to be interested in governing and the third needs to be an impartial body, with the constitution and a passion for basic human rights as their guide, not ideology, economic classism and religious chauvinism.

Congressmen are rarely held accountable by their constituents for their votes now, only if their oratory isn't inflammable enough or is perceived to be close to reasonable and conciliatory. The 2010 elections didn't take out liberals or ultra conservatives, it took out moderate Republicans and Blue Dog Democrats. People like you and me, a little to either side of center when it comes to governing for the country as a whole, are sorely underrepresented.
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SECfan
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September 30th, 2012, 6:00 am #28

If you are offended by foul language, especially the F-bomb, do not watch the following:

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October 1st, 2012, 7:13 am #29

A little advice, never, ever give your email address to a politician. 4 years ago I went on the Obama website and registered. Now I am getting killed by spam. Seriously, it is not uncommon to have 10 new emails a day from the DNC, The Obama reelection committee, Emily's List, etc. I think I am going to mark them all as spam.
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 3:23 pm

October 1st, 2012, 8:17 am #30

SECfan wrote:A little advice, never, ever give your email address to a politician. 4 years ago I went on the Obama website and registered. Now I am getting killed by spam. Seriously, it is not uncommon to have 10 new emails a day from the DNC, The Obama reelection committee, Emily's List, etc. I think I am going to mark them all as spam.
That's funny, I e-mailed McCain 4 years ago and haven't heard anything since. :lol:

Seriously though- are you seeing yard signs & bumper stickers up near you? As far as I can tell neither Obama or Romney are spending a dime in Georgia. No direct mail, nobody asking to put a yard sign up, etc. We dropped our land line since 4 years ago because the cell coverage got better than the old tin can and a string reception we used to have, so I wouldn't know about the robo calls.

I have an e-mail address I keep just for stores, websites, etc. I go in and empty it a couple of times a week and the traffic from Romney and the RNC seems about where you would expect it to be compared to '08 & '10.

My mother, who I never thought would ever master any form of technology, found the internet after she retired and evidently can blind copy forward to everyone in her address book now, so I can tell you the traffic from Obama e-elect, AARP, SEIU, AFL-CIO, NOW and everyone they share their lists with has been an avalanche for a while.

We had a talk a few weeks back on our Sunday call and I told her I was going to have to route her e-mails to spam and she'd have to call if it was something personal and important if she couldn't take me off the list. It seems to be working so far.

My sister says she ao gets a lot of texts from a lot of these groups too as she had surgery a while back and my sister was watching her phone and sending the rest of the kids updates. So if you didn't give them a cell phone number, count yourself lucky.
"I'm Just Living The Dream!" - Chaz Reinhold
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SECfan
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October 1st, 2012, 8:31 am #31

There is nothing at all here. I only see one Romney sign next to the RNC headquarter. I can't find anything about Obama. I think the DNC has written off South Carolina, which is a pretty safe bet actually. This state is the reddest of red states, I don't see that changing this election.
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 3:23 pm

October 1st, 2012, 8:48 am #32

SECfan wrote:There is nothing at all here. I only see one Romney sign next to the RNC headquarter. I can't find anything about Obama. I think the DNC has written off South Carolina, which is a pretty safe bet actually. This state is the reddest of red states, I don't see that changing this election.
There are some Romney signs here, but W & McCain both had someone ask if I wanted one delivered. I can't remember if they called on the landline which may have made the diff, but usually you see someone riding around in a pick up dropping off signs on Saturdays around now in Georgia.

Either Romney and the RNC feel like they don't need it here or they need the money somewhere else. Likewise, I don't see anything Obama, even up in Savannah. I see a lot of out of state cars on the 95, but the bumper stickers aren't showing up there either.

Meanwhile people in OH & FL are probably bleeding from the eyeballsfrom the TV ads.
"I'm Just Living The Dream!" - Chaz Reinhold
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Joined: August 29th, 2012, 6:15 pm

October 1st, 2012, 9:13 am #33

SEC Crucible wrote:
SECfan wrote: Meanwhile people in OH & FL are probably bleeding from the eyeballsfrom the TV ads.
you have no idea...
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October 1st, 2012, 9:32 am #34

Buckeye Nut wrote:
SEC Crucible wrote:
SECfan wrote: Meanwhile people in OH & FL are probably bleeding from the eyeballsfrom the TV ads.
you have no idea...
Yeah, Ohio is turning out to be THE battleground state. Maybe you should plan a trip to Hilton Head in the next month.
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Joined: August 29th, 2012, 6:15 pm

October 1st, 2012, 9:33 am #35

good idea.
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 3:23 pm

October 1st, 2012, 10:14 am #36

As long as you don't mind seeing a lot of the same Direct TV, Chik-Fil-A, Allstate and Geico ads over and over. I'm thinking about starting a personal boycott until they back off the high rotation or make some more entertaining spots.
"I'm Just Living The Dream!" - Chaz Reinhold
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Joined: August 29th, 2012, 6:15 pm

October 1st, 2012, 10:50 am #37

I will say the political ads helps replace needing to wonder at each commercial break why I need to explain to my 11 year old why some old guy is all smiles after simply by watching his wife do the crossword on the porch or baking cookies, and then suddenly they are in a field in seperate bathtubs
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SECfan
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October 1st, 2012, 10:57 am #38

Buckeye Nut wrote:I will say the political ads helps replace needing to wonder at each commercial break why I need to explain to my 11 year old why some old guy is all smiles after simply by watching his wife do the crossword on the porch or baking cookies, and then suddenly they are in a field in seperate bathtubs
I don't know they are both commercials about pricks.
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Joined: August 29th, 2012, 6:15 pm

October 1st, 2012, 11:05 am #39

SECfan wrote:
Buckeye Nut wrote:I will say the political ads helps replace needing to wonder at each commercial break why I need to explain to my 11 year old why some old guy is all smiles after simply by watching his wife do the crossword on the porch or baking cookies, and then suddenly they are in a field in seperate bathtubs
I don't know they are both commercials about pricks.

yes but the one is a lot more obvious about it.


and the other is for erectile medicine :lol:
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SECfan
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October 1st, 2012, 11:07 am #40

:lol: :lol:
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 3:23 pm

October 1st, 2012, 11:32 am #41

My son was watching a wife and kids show with one of the Wayans brothers and the mom and dad are at this couples retreat where they can't talk. So the dad sneaks through the trees and holds up a sign to the wife while she's in some medititation class that reads "I'm Horny". Laugh track goes nuts and the mom on the show flips out.

So my 10 year old thinks it's hilarious without knowing what it means and I tell him it means they want to hug and kiss a lot. I also tell him, he shouldn't bring it up around mom or his older sister. So now he thinks it's our inside joke. Can't wait for that little bomb to go pop. :roll:
"I'm Just Living The Dream!" - Chaz Reinhold
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 7:16 pm

October 1st, 2012, 3:37 pm #42

In SCAR and GA, you will only see the national ads. No need for either side to waste the money on locals. People in the Peedee of SCAR and in south Georgia will see some because of the cross coverage to battleground states.

Cruc - nearly every district in the country used Rove's voter data base to offer yard signs and stickers. They even offered it for free to state and local GOP candidates in the off years. That database was a thing of beauty. It is pretty much defunct now, as Rove has kind of abandoned the grassroots efforts in favor of the Super Pacs, plus the Bush family isn't paying for it any more.

I have an e mail addy just for Republican sends. My best friend is a repub office holder and I help him with his campaigns, so i get a lot of their stuff. As best I can tell, the traffic is about even. I do know for a fact that the Obama committee, DSCC, DCCC, DNC, etc., does not sell it's lists to anyone, so more bad sources used there.
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 3:23 pm

October 2nd, 2012, 6:53 am #43

creekdweller wrote:In SCAR and GA, you will only see the national ads. No need for either side to waste the money on locals. People in the Peedee of SCAR and in south Georgia will see some because of the cross coverage to battleground states.

Cruc - nearly every district in the country used Rove's voter data base to offer yard signs and stickers. They even offered it for free to state and local GOP candidates in the off years. That database was a thing of beauty. It is pretty much defunct now, as Rove has kind of abandoned the grassroots efforts in favor of the Super Pacs, plus the Bush family isn't paying for it any more.

I have an e mail addy just for Republican sends. My best friend is a repub office holder and I help him with his campaigns, so i get a lot of their stuff. As best I can tell, the traffic is about even. I do know for a fact that the Obama committee, DSCC, DCCC, DNC, etc., does not sell it's lists to anyone, so more bad sources used there.
Yeah the RNC e-mails seem about even with the last few cycles. I think in my mom's case, I don't think anybody in the DNC or Obama Re-elect is giving out her information. She is just active in a lot of different groups who have all really ramped up over the past few months. If you're also getting contacted by labor, senior, homeless advocacy and women's organizations this year, it's an avalanche. There's also an overlap from her being in California (particularly San Jose) where the mother of all public spending/pension reform battles is underway.
"I'm Just Living The Dream!" - Chaz Reinhold
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 7:16 pm

October 2nd, 2012, 7:18 am #44

Yeah, info is shared between supportive groups on all sides. What is funny to watch in SCAR is the e mails from both the so called tea party types and the regular repubs. Man, that is one hate filled battle. Everybody hates everybody else. They are so busy disqualifying their own candidates in primaries that the dems could actually win a couple of legislative seats by default.
Back in the 70s we used to laugh about the democrats forming circular firing squad, now in local and statewide groups, the Republicans have picked up the muskets.
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 3:23 pm

October 2nd, 2012, 9:18 am #45

Yeah I don't see the Tea Party traffic, but I watch the effect and it feels like there's a lot of free flowing vitriol. I'd say there is always battle of the purist vs establishment on both sides.

If anything, it's been stoked lately by the fact that too many career politicians have squeezed the tube dry trying to make everybody happy for one more election cycle without addressing the structural problems.

Sooner or later there will need to be a big debate about how you do that. The problems in europe and the budget debates next year should make now the best time. But both sides keep playing small ball. I think the biggest debate is whether both sides can push this thing one more cycle using the old standard.

It's still my sense that this thing hinges on conservative turnout. For better or worse, they've proven they will sit out without a clear choice and show up when somebody articulates their values. Call them Perot voters or Tea partiers, or wing nuts, they stay very focused on a few key issues and don't bend much. There have been a string of groups who purport to represent them, but I think that is just self-interest. They don't belong to the Moral Majority, or Perot, or the NRA, or the Tea Party.

I think Rove looks so smart to many only because he pays a lot of attention to the fact that nobody can deliver that vote, but that you can harness it with the right message and through one on one GOTV efforts. I don't know how much he understands about distributed networks, but before the "tea party" took on a name, I think he understood that the pool was there and it could be tapped. He doesn't pretend to move them as much as he looks to position issues and candidates to the front of the parade when he sees they are moving on their own.

I don't know if the 1% argument is connecting to the Occupy types and whether it mobilizes any significant number of voters. I don't know that the DEM's even understand what their issues are and so it makes it hard to quantify how many of them pull the lever if somebody articulates them.

The Tea party can seem pretty fractious and you'll get a lot issues flying around the fringes; gold standard, abandon the fed, close this many federal agencies, etc. But there is a lot of open dialogue about issues, and the GOP has had a couple of cycles to test their effect on turnout when you look at McCain, the midterms, the state races & recalls and the primaries. It may end up evolving into something we don't expect and have the impact that a DLC did in the 90's for the DEMs.

Time will tell.
"I'm Just Living The Dream!" - Chaz Reinhold
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 7:16 pm

October 2nd, 2012, 9:35 am #46

Any attempt to correlate the Occupy movement with Democrats is off base. You are right, Occupy has no clear cut agenda, that is what made them somewhat unique. It was originally a combination of progressive libertarians and mid level Wall streeters who had been laid off in the banking crisis. Thus far they haven't been corrupted to an extreme by the Dems. Occupy is fun nd I am glad the folks get to do their thing, but nobody other than paranoid people even think about them much.

The first Tea Party groups I met were in Texas in 09. They were so pure that they didn't get the joke of wearing tea bags on their hats. They had voted for John Anderson in 80, Nader in '00 and Kinky Friedman for governor of Texas. their only agenda was a smaller, but more fair tax structure. The racists and anti America crowd saw the opportunity and co-opted the movement and ruined it, much the way the radicals screwed the anti war and civil rights movements in the 60s and 70s. It is too bad, Though I didn't agree with them much, they were pleasant people, not full of hate and they liked to have discussions without bringing in the propaganda. The Tea party name has been incredibly successful as a pressure and fund raising entity, but it has nothing to do with those nice people in Texas who started it all.
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 3:23 pm

October 2nd, 2012, 10:19 am #47

That's the problem with distributed networks. There's nobody providing direction or enforcing standards.

I don't know that the bulk of the tea party types are much different than the folks you met in TX. I know some people who went up to the rally on the mall and the pictures they brought back looked like any crowd you'd see at a state fair, 4th of July or march of dimes. Couple of funny costumes thrown in, but more patriotic than anything confrontational. I think it says a lot that they took pride in cleaning up after themselves and went about their business in a peaceful, civilized way. Everybody who's expressed any tea party sentiment to me doesn't seem very concerned with race and social issues. They seem pretty libertarian.

I go up to NYC just about every month and went down to see the Occupy thing for myself. Looked a lot like camping out for festival seating at rock concerts when I was young. I don't think it parallels with the tea party as much as some in the press tried to make it seem that way. Judging by the signs and general sense of lethargy I saw, they don't seem motivated by any single issue the way the tea party is about spending and tax reform.

I don't worry about the Tea Party being co-opted. Herding kittens is a lot harder than it looks. They're a lot like snowflakes: not much when you see them one at a time, but if you get enough of them together....
"I'm Just Living The Dream!" - Chaz Reinhold
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 7:16 pm

October 2nd, 2012, 10:32 am #48

The Tea Party name has been co-opted and the movement marginalized. I've said many times that I admire the original intent of the Tea Party, though I disagree with most of their beliefs.
When I talk to true Tea Party types, they would like to see revenues reduced by efficiency in government being improved without cutting necessary programs. Religion and flag waving are rarely involved. They dislike CATO as much as Brookings, Beck as much as Olberman and FOX as much as MSNBC.

The one good thing about Occupy is that they have no organization, much like the original Tea Party. They don't get near the publicityin the mainstream press and media as they get in the far right machine. Instilling fear of a bunch of hippies and failed venture capitalists is funny and kind of a waste of time, but what the hell, it takes some attention away from alien spaceships abducting the President's mother, turning her into a prostitute and injecting her with a Martian/Kenyan/Danish presidential pregnancy serum.
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 3:23 pm

October 2nd, 2012, 10:42 am #49

creekdweller wrote:...it takes some attention away from alien spaceships abducting the President's mother, turning her into a prostitute and injecting her with a Martian/Kenyan/Danish presidential pregnancy serum.
so you admit it then! :lol:
"I'm Just Living The Dream!" - Chaz Reinhold
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Joined: September 4th, 2012, 7:16 pm

October 2nd, 2012, 11:09 am #50

Martian, yes. Kenyan/Danish is just wrong.

Speaking of pregnancy or the vicinity anyway. Did you see that Mike Riley of Oregon State is drinking the Beaver juice? Damn right he is, he's a good Bama boy.
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