2018 strength of record projections

Joined: October 3rd, 2013, 4:59 pm

April 9th, 2018, 10:30 am #1

This is one of my nerd posts and it is all based off this ESPN article:   http://www.espn.com/college-football/st ... rojections.   This article packs a lot of information and I will try to unpack it as best as possible.

So first, the basis of all the data in this article is that SOS matters greatly when it comes to making the playoffs.   Then they attempt to project who will have the toughest SOS next season.   As a conference it appears the Big 12 is screwed:

Top-Four Strength Of Record Odds
CONFERENCE AT LEAST ONE TOP-4 SOR TEAM AT LEAST TWO TOP-4 SOR TEAMS
SEC 84% 28%
Big Ten 80% 19%
ACC 65% 5%
Pac-12 51% 4%
Independents 34% <1%
Big 12 26% <1%
Even if they are off by a large factor it still looks like Oklahoma will really need to be undefeated to have any chance at all.  

As far as individual schools go ESPN is predicting:

Best Chance Of A Top-4 Strength Of Record
TEAM CONFERENCE TOP-4 SOR CHANCE
Clemson ACC 54%
Alabama SEC 40%
Georgia SEC 38%
Washington Pac-12 36%
Notre Dame Independent 34%
Ohio State Big Ten 32%
Auburn SEC 23%
Penn State Big Ten 21%
Oklahoma Big 12 18%
Michigan Big Ten 18%
Michigan State Big Ten 16%
Wisconsin Big Ten 12%
Stanford Pac-12 9%
Miami ACC 9%
USC Pac-12 7%
Mississippi State SEC 5%
Texas Big 12 4%
Florida State ACC 3%
Texas A&M SEC 3%
Oklahoma State Big 12 3%
Florida SEC 2%
Virginia Tech ACC 2%
Oregon Pac-12 2%
Georgia Tech ACC 1%
Iowa Big Ten 1%
So the usual suspects at top.   What surprises me the most is they are picking UGA to win the SEC:



Finally, again according to ESPN, these are the most important games for teams expected to have a chance at the playoffs:


Most Important Games In CFP Race
WEEK AWAY HOME HOME TEAM CHANCE TO WIN
5 Ohio State Penn State 51%
11 Ohio State Michigan State 47%
1 Auburn Washington 50%
13 Auburn Alabama 67%
11 Auburn Georgia 67%
13 Michigan Ohio State 68%
1 Michigan Notre Dame 68%
10 Penn State Michigan 59%
7 Michigan State Penn State 65%
13 Notre Dame USC 41%
Being a Vol fan is great except for a few Saturdays in the fall.
Quote
Like
Share

Joined: August 10th, 2017, 5:39 am

April 9th, 2018, 11:26 am #2

My understanding is that UGA has a better chance of winning the SEC because their path to the title game is so much easier.  You can win a Natty without winning your division, but you can't win the conference without winning your division.
Quote
Like
Share

Joined: August 10th, 2017, 5:39 am

April 9th, 2018, 11:27 am #3

Also, the SEC CG is the toughest game for UGA.
Quote
Like
Share

Joined: September 4th, 2012, 11:23 am

April 10th, 2018, 3:56 am #4

Clemsons schedule really depends on how good A&M, SC, and FSU end up being. GT is actually predicted to be fairly decent and who knows with NC State, Louisville, etc

On preseason paper Clemson should win every game but at A&M and at FSU aren’t easy task as both teams are talented enough to be great teams
Quote
Like
Share

Joined: October 3rd, 2013, 4:59 pm

April 10th, 2018, 4:24 am #5

I think one real exciting thing is some of those week 1 games.   Auburn vs Washington.  Michigan at Notre Dame.  Throw in some of the other games not listed above like Bama/Louisville, LSU at Miami, Virginia Tech at FSU, and even FAU at Oklahoma (Kiffin makes it interesting) and you have a really great opening weekend.  I can't wait. 
Being a Vol fan is great except for a few Saturdays in the fall.
Quote
Like
Share

Joined: August 10th, 2017, 5:39 am

April 10th, 2018, 5:34 am #6

nmerritt11 wrote: Clemsons schedule really depends on how good A&M, SC, and FSU end up being. GT is actually predicted to be fairly decent and who knows with NC State, Louisville, etc

On preseason paper Clemson should win every game but at A&M and at FSU aren’t easy task as both teams are talented enough to be great teams
Clemson is significantly better than every team they play this year.  I think FSU and TAMU will be better in 2-3 years, but this year is a rebuilding year.  Clemson will probably lose a game because of a lack of focus.  That's easy to do with 18-22 year olds.  

Clemson needs a tough(er) opponent in the CCG to get the ready for the playoffs.  Any chance Miami improves?  
Quote
Like
Share

Joined: August 10th, 2017, 5:39 am

April 10th, 2018, 5:37 am #7

DocVOLiday wrote: I think one real exciting thing is some of those week 1 games.   Auburn vs Washington.  Michigan at Notre Dame.  Throw in some of the other games not listed above like Bama/Louisville, LSU at Miami, Virginia Tech at FSU, and even FAU at Oklahoma (Kiffin makes it interesting) and you have a really great opening weekend.  I can't wait. 
I agree.  I love these great OOC games to start the season.  There are so many now that I forget about a few of them.  Auburn vs Washington is an example!  Auburn seems poised for a really bad flop.  It's sort of their MO after having a good season.
Quote
Like
Share

Joined: September 4th, 2012, 11:23 am

April 10th, 2018, 5:44 am #8

VT may be the team in the coastal this year. I still think FSU is being overlooked

Frenchie is back, Taggart has talent and speed to work with and Barnette is a huge upgrade at DC
Quote
Like
Share

Joined: October 3rd, 2013, 4:59 pm

April 10th, 2018, 8:58 am #9

It may not have the punch of the other games but the Tennessee versus West Virginia game should be telling.  West Virginia with Will Grier is a decent team (7-3 before Grier's injury) and I am sure Grier will be "juiced" to play.   A win would be a solid start to this young team.   A loss will make it very difficult to have a winning season.   
Being a Vol fan is great except for a few Saturdays in the fall.
Quote
Like
Share

Joined: August 10th, 2017, 5:39 am

April 10th, 2018, 9:06 am #10

I wonder what the line will be for the UT vs WVU game.
Quote
Like
Share

Joined: October 3rd, 2013, 4:59 pm

April 10th, 2018, 10:03 am #11

It's at Neyland so they may give it to us by a field goal.   West Virginia ended their season very poorly and unless you take into account the Grier factor they looked very beatable.  
Being a Vol fan is great except for a few Saturdays in the fall.
Quote
Like
Share