How much of this game is "fixed"?

mitchelltrubisky
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mitchelltrubisky
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Joined: December 27th, 2017, 4:46 pm

February 14th, 2018, 12:35 am #1

ok. i'm playing a season against the computer using the Eagles with the 2017 projection rosters. doing alright. record is 5-3. carson wentz is having a great year statistically (but not unrealistic, something like 16 TDs and 5 INTs) and is on pace for more TDs and less INTs than projected. defense is playing really well also (#2 scoring). start a game tonight against the trevor siemian led broncos, at home and i'm favored by 5. thought i was playing smart defense, but at the end of the first quarter siemian was about 12/14 for 275 yards and 4 TDs. wentz had 4 ints halfway through the 2nd quarter. it seemed like siemian would get a huge passing play every time he dropped back, no matter what i did. it felt like it was out of my control and i'm wondering if this is the result of the stats "balancing out" to get closer to the projections, or do i just really suck? 
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SlyBelle
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February 14th, 2018, 12:42 am #2

basing on one bad game?

in real life....week 5 pittsburgh was favored by 7-8 points at home against the jags.....jags and bortles came in and cleaned their clocks 30-9.

anything can happen .....the games are not fixed and i doubt you really suck.  certainly the games are played with reasonable outcomes, but the game is not going to force a specific outcome.
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mitchelltrubisky
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mitchelltrubisky
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February 14th, 2018, 1:10 am #3

SlyBelle wrote: basing on one bad game?

in real life....week 5 pittsburgh was favored by 7-8 points at home against the jags.....jags and bortles came in and cleaned their clocks 30-9.

anything can happen .....the games are not fixed and i doubt you really suck.  certainly the games are played with reasonable outcomes, but the game is not going to force a specific outcome.
ok gotcha. thank you.
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gandalf9700
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gandalf9700
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February 17th, 2018, 3:12 am #4

Also one thing to consider about this game is that early any season, the stats are wonky for some reason.  After about three weeks things tend to settle down.
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RJake1
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March 3rd, 2018, 1:52 pm #5

gandalf9700 wrote: Also one thing to consider about this game is that early any season, the stats are wonky for some reason.  After about three weeks things tend to settle down.
If all games turned out the way they should based on paper projections, there would be no point in playing the games.  Its the uncertainty of outcome, the possibility (hope) of an upset, that unexpected twist of fate, that makes the game so interesting. 
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PhilTitan
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PhilTitan
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March 5th, 2018, 10:25 pm #6

mitchelltrubisky wrote:ok. i'm playing a season against the computer using the Eagles with the 2017 projection rosters. doing alright. record is 5-3. carson wentz is having a great year statistically (but not unrealistic, something like 16 TDs and 5 INTs) and is on pace for more TDs and less INTs than projected. defense is playing really well also (#2 scoring). start a game tonight against the trevor siemian led broncos, at home and i'm favored by 5. thought i was playing smart defense, but at the end of the first quarter siemian was about 12/14 for 275 yards and 4 TDs. wentz had 4 ints halfway through the 2nd quarter. it seemed like siemian would get a huge passing play every time he dropped back, no matter what i did. it felt like it was out of my control and i'm wondering if this is the result of the stats "balancing out" to get closer to the projections, or do i just really suck? 
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PhilTitan
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PhilTitan
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March 5th, 2018, 10:27 pm #7

mitchelltrubisky:

1st, you need to realize that with the 2017 Projection Disk rated the Philadelphia Eagles are about a .500 team, while the Denver Broncos are one of the best teams on that disk.  Remember, the Projection Disk was a projection & not based on what actually occurred, but rather, conjecture.  When anything is based on Projection, realism is very iffy. For example, this Projection Disk was designed with Trevor Sieman being anticipated as having somewhat of a breakout year, however, it's doubtful he'll be starting anywhere in the NFL in 2018.  The Eagles were projected to be an average team and they won the Super Bowl.  If you play this game with the 2017 NFL Disk this matchup would be very different.  With the 2017 Projection Disk, the Denver Broncos will almost always win double-digit games in any season replay, while the Eagles will struggle to beat a .500 record.  

As far as gameplay is concerned:  When you say "I was playing smart defense"  what exactly do you mean?  I've been playing this game since 1992 and realize that you can make a good defensive call and still not stop big plays occasionally, however, when a QB connects on 12/14 passes for 275 yds & 4 TDs I find it difficult to believe that you're calling smart defense on a consistent basis, no insult intended.  If possible, can you send out the Play-by-play report to show your defensive calls & how they were habitually beaten like a boxer in a Rocky movie?  I have on numerous occasions discussed play calls with people who were somewhat misinformed on what exactly what constitutes "Smart Defense"   Anything is possible, so maybe you truly made terrific defensive calls and had the worst luck possible, but I would still like to see that PBP just to see how such good defensive calls can be consistently beaten.  One thing the Eagles have in the 2017 Projection disk is a terrific Run Defense, however, their Pass Defense is slightly above Average due to their Pass Rush & ability to make Interceptions.  The Eagles Pass Coverage though is a weak link on that 2017 Projection disk  & my wild guess is that the Eagles Pass Coverage Defense will be significantly better on the actual 2017 NFL Disk.  Just my guess of course as I've no idea how their players will be rated. On the 2017 Projection Disk, their mediocre Pass Coverage has their overall Pass Defense boosted by an elite ability to make interceptions, an acceptable Pass Rush & a very stout Run Defense that would allow a Defensive Coach to call more Pass oriented Defensive Calls.  The Eagles Run Defense has only fewer points on the Projection Disk then the Seattle Seahawks.  
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