2017 FBS College Football Replay

Retired CPA
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Retired CPA
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Joined: June 21st, 2017, 10:33 pm

September 14th, 2018, 10:16 pm #1

Introduction Completed the 1st 2 weeks of a 2017 FBS college football replay. I am defining week 1 as the same as what is commonly referred as "week 0" since Action PC defines it as week 1. This is my 3rd annual FBS replay and the 2nd year I am posting the results to this message board. In both the 2015 and 2016 replays the Oklahoma Sooners won the national championship,and were undefeated in both of these seasons. Before I began this 2017 replay season I chose 60 teams in which I would be the human coach (compared to only 48 teams for the 2016 season) whenever these teams play. These 60 teams include all 14 Big 10 teams plus most of the teams from the other 4 major conferences plus 7 teams not in the major 5 conferences. I researched each of these 60 teams a few months before starting the season. The research was done by gathering information on each of the players for each of these 60 teams from the 2017 and 2018 preseason college football magazines (Phil Steele, Athlon,  and Lindy's) as well as the individual team web sites and the Sports Reference web site. From this research, I prepared "old school" handwritten papers for each of the 60 teams which includes notes, comments, height, weight, class and Action PC ratings for all of the starters and many of the backups. When playing a game between teams that are both in the 60 researched teams, I chose my favorite of the 2 teams to be coached by the human and the other team was coached by the computer. If neither team were part of the 60 researched teams, both teams were coached by the computer. In the past 2 seasons (2015 and 2016) I ignored all games against FCS teams. For this year's 2017 replay I am going to play those games which include FCS teams provided by Action PC.
     Each week I will post the results of the most relevant and interesting games on this message board as well as providing a brief summary of many of these games. I will also post a top 25 teams each week. In the early weeks it will be a top 10 or top 20 due to the lack of significant replay results in these early weeks. This poll will be based on the replay results, the Action PC power ratings, and the final real life top 25 results. The actual real life 25 will play an important role in the early weeks of the poll. Their importance will diminish as the replay season progresses.

Week 1 and 2  
Four big upsets of top teams and for 2 SEC power houses:
Contrary to the actual real life results 4 top teams ( 2 were from the SEC) were defeated in the replay:
  • Alabama was upset by Florida State 37-21. In real life Alabama won 24-7.
  • Georgia suffered a big upset at home against Appalachian State 28-21. In real life Georgia won 31-10
  • Central Florida (UCF) also was upset at home to Florida International 44-41. In real life UCF won easily 61-17.
  • Notre Dame was also upset at home against Temple 28-9. Notre Dame beat Temple in real life 49-16.
In essence the real life number 1, number 2, number 6 and number 11 ranked teams were all upset in the replay.
     In the Alabama- Florida State replay game, Alabama could not contain running back Cam Akers who rushed for 212 yards (7.6 yards per carry) and also caught 3 passes for 17 yards. Additionally, the Seminole defense contained Crimson Tide QB Jalen Hurts to 155 passing yards and a QB rating of only 29.0.  Not only did Alabama seriously under perform in this replay, but also greatly under performed in my 2016 replay with an 8-4 overall record which put them in 19th in my top 25 poll. I would be curious if anyone else may be seeing Alabama under performing in 2016 and/or 2017 replays. 
     In the Appalachian State replay win at Georgia, App State contained the Bull Dog passing attack to a mere 58 yards on only 8 completions. The Georgia starting QB Jacob Eason struggled with a QB rating of 38.3 before being replaced by Jake Fromm in the 4th quarter. Fromm could muster only a 37.8 QB rating. This replay game was close throughout. The Mountaineers trailed 21-20 going into the 4th quarter until they scored the final touchdown with 8 minutes left in the game and successfully converted on a 2 point extra point to prevail 28-21. The Mountaineers offense was lead by QB Taylor Lamb who rushed for 150 yards (9.5 yards per carry) and threw for 150 yards and a QB rating of 68.5.
     The UCF Knights 44-41 loss to the Florida International Panthers was a shocker particularly because the Panthers trailed 41-21 with only 4 minutes left in the game! During the last 4 minutes Florida International scored 3 touchdowns as a result of a 73 yard pass reception, a fumble recovery on the UCF 15 yard line, and a 63 yard drive after intercepting a UCF pass. Additionally, after two of these 3 touchdowns the Panthers were able to convert on 2 point extra points.
     Notre Dame's 28-9 loss to Temple was attributable mainly to the fact that the Owls were able to contain the Irish QB Brandon Wimbush to only 91 yards passing (only  completions on 17 attempts) and a QB rating of only 29.3. In contrast, the Temple QB Frank Nutile completed 16 passes on 21 attempts for 197 yards and a QB rating of 144.2.

All of the Other top Teams won their replay as they did in real life:
  • Oklahoma defeated UTE at home 38-7. In real life the Sooners won by a larger margin 56-7. In the replay Oklahoma was led by Baker Mayfield who completed 19 passes on 26 attempts for 369 yards and a QB rating of 153.5.
  • Ohio State won at Indiana in both the replay and in real life. In the replay Ohio State won 58-27 compared to 49-21 in real life. In the replay game the Buckeye defense contained the Hoosier rushing attack to 36 yards rushing and 1.1 yards per carry. In contrast, the Ohio State rushers gained 264 yards and 6.3 yards per carry.
  • Auburn defeated Georgia Southern at home in the replay 63-17. In real life Auburn also won 41-7. In the replay the Auburn offense was led by QB Jarrett Stidham who completed 26 passes on 32 attempts for 398 yards and a QB rating of 145.1.
  • Clemson struggled at home a bit in the replay game against Kent State but finally prevailed 44-25. In real life Clemson dominated Kent State 56-3. In the replay game the Flashes actually out rushed the Tigers (196 yards compared to 133 yards) and also beat them in rushing yards per carry (6.1 yards per carry vs. 3.9 yards per carry). The Clemson offense was lead by QB Kelly Bryant who completed 26 passes on 30 attempts for 313 yards and a QB rating of 135.7.
  •  Wisconsin won their replay at home against Utah State 38-17. This was another game that the margin of victory in the replay game was much less than the real life game in which the Badgers won 59-10. In the replay Badger running back Jonathan Taylor rushed for 196 yards and 8.5 yards per carry. The Badger defense also contained the Utah State running attack to 74 rushing yards and 3.1 yards per carry.
  • Penn State's replay win at home 48-10 against Akron was fairly close to the real life score of 52-0. In the replay victory, the Nittany Lion star running back Saquaon Barkley rushed for 92 yards and 6.1 yards per carry, and their QB Trace McSorley completed 16 passes on 19 attempts for 349 yards and a QB rating of 136.4.
  • USC dominated Western Michigan at home in the replay 49-14. The Trojans margin of victory was much greater than the real life score of 17-3. Trojan running back Ronald Jones rushed for 152 yards and 6.9 yards per carry in the replay. In addition, USC QB Sam Darnold completed 30 passes on 37 attempts for 440 yards and a QB rating of 118.5. The USC defense limited the Western Michigan rushing attack to 87 yards and 2.9 yards per carry.
  • In the replay game Oklahoma State won at home against in state rival Tulsa 42-27 which was closer than the real life win of 59-24. The Cowboy's QB Mason Rudolph completed 16 passes on 23 attempts for 345 yards and a QB rating of 133.6.
    There were also several games in which the winner in the replay differed from the real life winner:
  • In the replay Texas won easily at home against Maryland 36-9. In real life Maryland upset Texas 51-41. The Texas offense was highlighted in the replay by freshman running back Daniel Young who rushed for 113 yards and 4.9 yards per carry. The Longhorns defense held the Terps passing and rushing to only 88 yards and 121 yards respectively.
  • North Carolina State defeated South Carolina 16-10 in the replay the Wolf pack offense was lead by running back Nayheim Hines who rushed for 128 yards and 8.5 yards per carry. In addition, N.C. State halfback Jaylen Samuels rushed for 80 yards and led the team in pass receptions for 44 yards.
  • In the replay New Mexico State upset Arizona State on the road 30-17. In real life Arizona State won 37-31. The net offense yards for both teams in the replay were virtually identical. New Mexico State was able to win thanks to a bad snap of an Arizona State punt in their own territory that New Mexico State was able to capitalize into a touchdown. New Mexico State was also able to block a 23 yard field goal attempt by Arizona State. Finally, Arizona State was unable to convert on a 4th down play deep in New Mexico State Territory.
  • Northern Illinois won at home against Boston College in the replay 28-14. In real life BC edged out Northern Illinois 23-20. The Huskies offense was lead in the replay by running back Jordan Huff who rushed for 161 yards and 8.9 yards per carry. The Huskies were able to contain the Eagles passing and rushing offense to 86 yards and 125 yards respectively. The Eagles rushing yards per carry was contained to only 3.3 yards. 
  • There were also several prominent games in which the winners of the replay games were consistent with the real life replay winners:                                                                                            Washington won on the road vs. Rutgers  42-7 for the replay,30-14 for real life. Michigan won on the road vs. Florida  28-17 for the replay,33-17 for real life.Louisville won on the road vs. Purdue         31-24 for the replay,35-28 for real life. Iowa won at home vs. Wyoming 27-14 for the replay, 24-3 for real life. Northwestern won at home vs. Nevada 49-27 for the replay,31-20 for real life. Kentucky won on the road vs. Southern Miss 52-51 for the replay, 24-27 for real life. Boise State won at home vs. Troy 24-21 for the replay, 24-13 for real life. LSU won at home vs. BYU 49-17 for the replay,27-10 for real life.Va Tech won at home vs. West Virginia 35-33 in the replay, and 31-24 for real life.UCLA won at home vs. Texas A&M , 48-21 for the replay, 45-44 for real life. Here is my Top 10 after week 2:  1) Oklahoma -  Beat UTEP at home38-7. The Sooners finished 3rd behind Alabama and Georgia in the real life final top 25 AP poll. Since both of these teams lost their first replay game Oklahoma moves to the number 1 position.   2) Ohio State -  Beat Indiana on the road 58-27. The Buckeyes finished fifth in the real life final top 25 AP poll behind number 4 Clemson. Because Clemson struggled a bit against Kent State this week I put Ohio State ahead of Clemson in 2nd place.3)  Auburn - Beat Georgia Southern at home 63-17. The Tigers finished 10th in the real life final top 25 AP poll. Because of their impressive victory over Georgia Southern I ranked them 3rd. 4) Clemson - Beat Kent State at home 44-25. The Tigers finished 4th behind Alabama, Georgia, and Oklahoma in the real life final top 25 AP poll. Because Clemson struggled a bit against Kent State this week I put them behind Ohio State and Auburn in 4th place.   5) Wisconsin - Beat Utah State at home 38-17. The Badgers finished 7th behind 6th place UCF in the real life final top 25 AP poll. Because of the UCF, Georgia and Alabama  losses, I moved Wisconsin ahead to 5th place.6) Penn State - Beat Akron at home 48-10. The Nittany Lions finished 8th in the real life final top 25 AP poll. Because of the UCF, Georgia, and Alabama losses, I moved Penn State ahead to 6th place.7) USC -  Beat Western Michigan at home 49-14. The Trojans finished 12th , behind 11th ranked Notre Dame, in the real life final top 25 AP poll. Because of the Notre Dame, UCF, Georgia, and Alabama losses, I moved USC ahead to 7th place.The Trojans were also moved ahead of TCU who finished 9th in the real life final top 25 AP poll because TCU did not play this week since they played FCS Jackson State in real life. This FCS team is not included in the Action PC FCS teams. 8) Oklahoma State - Beat Tulsa at home 42-17. The Cowboys finished 14th, behind 13th ranked Miami of Florida in the real life final top 25 AP poll. The Cowboys were moved ahead of the aforementioned Notre Dame, UCF, Georgia and Alabama because of these teams respective losses this week. The Cowboys were also moved ahead of Miami since the Hurricanes did not play this week in the replay because in real life they played FCS Bethune-Cookman who are not included in the Action PC FCS teams. 9) TCU - as previously mentioned TCU did not play in the replay. In the real life final top 25 AP poll the Horned Frogs finished 9th. I kept them in 9th position in my poll.10) Florida State  -   The Seminoles beat Alabama 37-21. Because Alabama is so highly regarded I put Florida State in the top 10.   Look Ahead to Next Week (Week 3):The big game in week 3 is between the top two ranked teams in my poll- number 1 ranked Oklahoma will play at number 2 ranked Ohio State. In real life Oklahoma won 31-16.In another big game, number 3 ranked Auburn will travel to Clemson to meet number 4 ranked Tigers. In real life Auburn prevailed 14-6.Two highly touted teams that were both upset in week 2 will meet in South Bend Indiana - Georgia will play at Notre Dame. In real life Georgia edged Notre Dame 20-19.In the SEC conference opener two highly regarded SEC East teams will play- South Carolina will play at Missouri. In real life the Gamecocks won 31-13.In an in state rivalry Penn State will host Pittsburgh. In real life Pittsburgh upset Penn State.Be back in several days with week 3 results