End of the World Watch

End of the World Watch

roger
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April 22nd, 2003, 7:45 pm #1

Since we talk about everything here, I'm starting a thread on predictions of disasters and we can see what happens.
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April 22nd, 2003, 7:47 pm #2

Those of us on the Atlantic have been hearing for months that this was going to be a rough year for hurricanes/tropical storms. Things certainly are starting out interesting:
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MIAMI, April 22 (UPI) -- Subtropical storm Ana developed into a full-blown tropical storm with 50 mph winds Tuesday, but it was located in the open Atlantic and no threat to land.
At 11 a.m., the center of tropical storm Ana was located near latitude 29.8 north, longitude 57.5 west or about 460 miles east-southeast of Bermuda.
The first April subtropical storm since record keeping began developed in 1992 and was known as subtropical storm No. 1. Lawrence said that since then, the decision was made to include subtropical storms in the same naming system as tropical storms and hurricanes.
Subtropical storm No. 1 in 1992 was the only Atlantic-Caribbean storm that year until Andrew, which savaged south Florida Aug. 24.
The hurricane season officially lasts from June 1 through Nov. 30, but there is no month in which a named storm has not occurred. Before 1992, the last exception was April.
http://www.upi.com/view.cfm?StoryID=200 ... 0240-6472r
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April 22nd, 2003, 7:48 pm #3

Since we talk about everything here, I'm starting a thread on predictions of disasters and we can see what happens.
BELLINGHAM, Wash., April 21 — This spring, as people in the Pacific Northwest have gone about their usual drizzly business, an earthquake has been going on for weeks beneath their feet, unbeknownst to everyone but a very few, very excited scientists.

While this quake, which began in early March, lacks any bridge-collapsing punch, scientists say it is of great interest as the latest in a newly discovered cycle of highly regular earthquakes. This cycle is so regular that last year, scientists were willing to predict that the next one would hit the Northwest this spring, as it has.
Perhaps even more important, scientists say these so-called slow quakes may play a role in setting off much more powerful earthquakes. The slow quakes can release as much energy over weeks as the Nisqually temblor that struck the region two years ago.
But the researchers noticed that sometimes some of the stations would suddenly shift and move in the opposite direction, to the southwest, just a few scant millimeters, for a few weeks. Eventually all of the monitors would return to their usual path until some 14 1/2 months later, then the instruments would temporarily shift southwest once again. A blip in the readings almost too small to notice, it turns out, was the signal of the silent quake.
Looking over the past 10 years, researchers have found eight slow quakes in the region. If all goes as expected, Dr. Dragert said the next one should start moving the G.P.S. monitors to the southwest sometime in June 2004. But just how regular this cycle of slow quakes will be remains to be seen. Researchers caution that the most predictable-seeming earthquakes have fooled researchers.
Along what is known as the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault in California, Dr. Miller said, magnitude six earthquakes occurred every 20 years or so through much of the 1900's, so regularly that scientists made extensive preparations for a 1980 earthquake that never occurred.
http://nytimes.com/2003/04/22/science/earth/22QUAK.html
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April 25th, 2003, 2:54 pm #4

An earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 4.8 hit deep beneath the Olympic Mountains early Friday, jolting much of western Washington.

No damage was initially reported, but the quake was felt across the Olympic Peninsula and in Seattle, 43 miles to the east, said Anthony Qamar, Washington state seismologist.

"Because of its depth, it would cause light damage if any damage," Qamar said. He said he did not expect major aftershocks.

The quake hit at 3:02 a.m. PDT and was centered 31 miles beneath Olympic National Park. It was in the same deep geological structure as the 6.8 magnitude Nisqually earthquake that shook Seattle on Feb. 28, 2001.
http://www.theledger.com/apps/pbcs.dll/ ... 676&Ref=AR

http://www.pgc.nrcan.gc.ca/seismo/mstre ... locmap.htm

Topozone Map:
47.7° N
123.3° W
http://topozone.com/map.asp?lat=47.7&lon=-123.
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September 14th, 2003, 8:20 pm #5

Since we talk about everything here, I'm starting a thread on predictions of disasters and we can see what happens.

When I started this thread, I had no idea that things would be quite so dramatic. Isabel is a Category 5 hurricane -- as big as they come (the last one to hit the Americas killed 11,000 in Central America). The last one to hit the U.S. was Andrew.

Since even small hurricanes affect the weather patterns for the entire coast (in New York we're currently getting the aftereffects of Henri which passed hundreds of miles away with rough surf and rain) this is definitely going to be a big time weather shaker.

I don't think a Category 5 storm has hit this far north this century! The "big one" was the 1938 hurricane in which waves literally split Long Island, NY, and devastated Newport and much of New England. And that storm was a Category 3.

The storm is tracking to Chesapeake Bay.



http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&editi ... ane+isabel
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September 14th, 2003, 8:43 pm #6

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September 14th, 2003, 10:52 pm #7

Roger

That list is a little misleading because it only includes namded hurricanes, and they hadn't started naming them when a monster hurricane hit Long Island and Rhode Island in 1938. It had wind gusts of up to 180 mph (sustained winds were a lot lower) and a 12 to 18 foot storm surge. Because nobody knew it was coming until it hit land, more than 600 people were killed by it.

The list also puts Hurricane Agnes down as a Florida hurricane, but it was such a costly storm because of the flooding it caused in Pennsylvania. It crossed over Florida, then went into the Atlantic, built itself up, and hit the northeast, creating all time flooding records in the Susquehanna Valley. If this one comes right up the Chesapeake, it could challenge Agnes' records.
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September 15th, 2003, 5:14 pm #8


When I started this thread, I had no idea that things would be quite so dramatic. Isabel is a Category 5 hurricane -- as big as they come (the last one to hit the Americas killed 11,000 in Central America). The last one to hit the U.S. was Andrew.

Since even small hurricanes affect the weather patterns for the entire coast (in New York we're currently getting the aftereffects of Henri which passed hundreds of miles away with rough surf and rain) this is definitely going to be a big time weather shaker.

I don't think a Category 5 storm has hit this far north this century! The "big one" was the 1938 hurricane in which waves literally split Long Island, NY, and devastated Newport and much of New England. And that storm was a Category 3.

The storm is tracking to Chesapeake Bay.



http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&editi ... ane+isabel


Most of the projections for what is being as the most catastrophic Northeast storm ever are sending the hurricane in a beeline for Washington, DC -- except one which sends it on a beeline to NYC.

It's September all over again.
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September 15th, 2003, 5:32 pm #9


When I started this thread, I had no idea that things would be quite so dramatic. Isabel is a Category 5 hurricane -- as big as they come (the last one to hit the Americas killed 11,000 in Central America). The last one to hit the U.S. was Andrew.

Since even small hurricanes affect the weather patterns for the entire coast (in New York we're currently getting the aftereffects of Henri which passed hundreds of miles away with rough surf and rain) this is definitely going to be a big time weather shaker.

I don't think a Category 5 storm has hit this far north this century! The "big one" was the 1938 hurricane in which waves literally split Long Island, NY, and devastated Newport and much of New England. And that storm was a Category 3.

The storm is tracking to Chesapeake Bay.



http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&editi ... ane+isabel
With seas predicted at 20-25 feet, the North Carolina's Outer Banks are really going to get hammered.

Take a look at the highpoints for these two counties:
Currituck County (67 feet)
http://www.cohp.org/nc/Currituck_2.html


Dare County (138 feet)
http://www.cohp.org/nc/Dare_1.html

Topozone lists Kitty Hawk at 15 feet:
http://www.topozone.com/findresults.asp ... rch=Search
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September 16th, 2003, 7:38 pm #10


When I started this thread, I had no idea that things would be quite so dramatic. Isabel is a Category 5 hurricane -- as big as they come (the last one to hit the Americas killed 11,000 in Central America). The last one to hit the U.S. was Andrew.

Since even small hurricanes affect the weather patterns for the entire coast (in New York we're currently getting the aftereffects of Henri which passed hundreds of miles away with rough surf and rain) this is definitely going to be a big time weather shaker.

I don't think a Category 5 storm has hit this far north this century! The "big one" was the 1938 hurricane in which waves literally split Long Island, NY, and devastated Newport and much of New England. And that storm was a Category 3.

The storm is tracking to Chesapeake Bay.



http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&editi ... ane+isabel
Hampton Roads Ships Sortie to Evade Hurricane Isabel
Story Number: NNS030916-01
Release Date: 9/16/2003 8:23:00 AM

Commander, 2nd Fleet ordered ships based in Hampton Roads to get underway Sept. 16, to avoid potential damage to ships and piers from anticipated hurricane force winds and high tidal surges. Ships currently underway will stay out to sea until Hurricane Isabel passes.
Forty Hampton Roads-based ships and submarines will get underway Sept. 16 and remain at sea until the threat from the storm subsides.
Forty Hampton Roads-based ships and submarines will get underway Sept. 16 and remain at sea until the threat from the storm subsides

The following ships will not sortie, so extra precautions are being taken to avoid potential damage to these ships and their crews
USS Mount Whitney (LCC 20/JCC 20);
Navy Newstand
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