Snow in the forecast, can you blieve it?

Snow in the forecast, can you blieve it?

Joined: January 1st, 1970, 12:00 am

January 12th, 2012, 6:48 pm #1

Could be weird Saturday. SL is suppose to go from 3000' to 4,500' then down to 1,500' at night. After that the SL hangs around 500' so lets hope for some nice storms. I'll be out of town this weekend so I'm expecting some shoveling when I get back....

Hyak Ski and Snowboard Adventure
On the World-Wide-Web since 1997
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Joined: September 25th, 2006, 1:51 pm

January 13th, 2012, 2:57 pm #2

I hope they're right that the first showers (4500') stay far north. We don't need rain here, just bring the white stuff...and lots of it!!
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Joined: January 1st, 1970, 12:00 am

January 13th, 2012, 3:41 pm #3

Now the SL is suppose to be 4,500' tonight then on Saturday is down to 3,000' dropping to 300' by Monday. We could be having some epic powder this weekend and through next week!

Hyak Ski and Snowboard Adventure
On the World-Wide-Web since 1997
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Joined: January 1st, 1970, 12:00 am

January 13th, 2012, 10:37 pm #4



Hyak Ski and Snowboard Adventure
On the World-Wide-Web since 1997
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Joined: January 1st, 1970, 12:00 am

January 13th, 2012, 10:39 pm #5

I think I'll be adding these to my conditions page.. Cool stuff.



Hyak Ski and Snowboard Adventure
On the World-Wide-Web since 1997
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Joined: September 25th, 2006, 1:51 pm

January 13th, 2012, 11:43 pm #6

Copied from Larry's email:

Powder Alert
Jan 13, 2012

Lately, there has been lots of wonderful skiing on the groomers under Kashmir sapphire, blue skies. Cascade resort temperatures have been mild on the upper slopes, above the cold surface inversion we have here in the lowlands. An inversion is when it's warmer at higher elevation, than near sea level - for example this morning it was in the 20's around much of Puget Sound, but this morning at 6800ft at Crystal it was mid 30's - that is inverted, opposite of the normal condition. Some have experienced hints of spring skiing. That said, the epic new powder days have been few a far between, but winter is not over and more powder is ahead.

High pressure will flatten and a weak front will move in tonight ending the dry pattern with 1-4" of new in the Cascades. Later Saturday, the cold air will spread in Puget Sounds as the overall Northern Hemispheric weather pattern we've been stuck in, evolves to a more favorable pattern for Cascade snow. A low will move off the WA and BC coast, configured to bring in very cool air and low snow levels of only 500ft to near sea level. We will see minor snow/rain mix in Seattle at some point between Sun-Tuesday. Snowfall in the mountains will be high quality powder, but models have been variable as to timing and favoring modest amounts. The chilly air is a good bet, but confidence in forecasted depth of the new snow remains a moving target, depending on the storm track.

I'll go with:
Sunday morning: 4 - 12" new , 500ft snow level - greater amounts Stevens and Baker
Monday: 2-8" new 500 ft SL - great quality, good leftovers from Sunday plus some new - I am going
Tuesday: increasing snow 2-8" SL 500-on the rise by evening late - favor early day
Wednesday: 10-20" new , SL rising - 2000-4000 ft - hit it early, favor higher slopes

La Nina and Winter Part Two:

La Nina has been a little brat so far this winter. Very inconsistent, doesn't text and no call backs. La Nina is giving us the real cold shoulder, but two can play this game. I propose we dump La Nina -- not friends, no calls, no Facebook - no nada. We don't have to put up with this - we have our standards- they are low, but we've got em. In fact the bar is so low, we are tripping over it.

"La Nina ...we don't need no stinkin' La Nina" We'll do fine with whatever nature throws our way. The groomers are good, new snow is on the way; we've got a good snowpack so far without much help from La Nina - thank you very much. Typical NW weather variation will get us some powder days ahead. La Nina, we aren't playing your silly games - no special treatment from us. We'll show you who is the boss and show you the door. Plus, La Nina gained a few lbs over the holidays - not looking so good. Not that we are so shallow we would judge entirely on looks. La Nina - time to hit the gym.

So La Nina it's; goodbye, farewell, see ya later, don't let the door hit you, your fired, hit the road, drop off the key, get a new plan, no more Mr nice guy, bon voyage, adios - and no more rides to the airport.

Rejection -- that will get La Nina begging to come back - prepare for a great second half of the season.

Grand Poobah of Powder
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Jack
Jack

January 18th, 2012, 1:51 am #7

Larry has been wrong much of the time and is wrong again this time. Here is the latest correct forecast:
(sorry, I'm not a fan of Larry)

Tonight... Snow showers in the evening... Then snow after midnight.
Snow accumulation of 7 to 14 inches. West wind in the passes 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday... Breezy. Snow... Mixed with rain below 1500 feet in the
afternoon south of mount rainier. Snow will be heavy. Snow accumulation
of 14 to 21 inches. Snow level mainly near 500 feet. Afternoon pass
temperatures 15 to 19. East wind in the passes 15 to 25 mph.

Wednesday night... Snow and rain. Snow accumulation of 4 to 7 inches.
Storm total accumulation of 2 to 3 feet. Snow level 1000 feet. East
wind in the passes 10 to 20 mph becoming south around 10 mph after
midnight.

Thursday... Rain and snow. Snow level 2000 feet. Afternoon pass
temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. Southwest wind in the passes
around 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.

Thursday night... Rain and snow. Snow level 2500 feet decreasing to
1500 feet after midnight. West wind in the passes 10 to 15 mph
becoming southwest after midnight.

Friday... Rain and snow. Snow level 3000 feet.

Friday night... Rain and snow. Snow level 4000 feet.

Saturday... Rain and snow. Snow level 2500 feet.

Saturday night... Rain and snow. Snow level 1500 feet.
Last edited by hyak on January 18th, 2012, 4:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Joined: September 25th, 2006, 1:51 pm

January 18th, 2012, 5:23 am #8

I don't know whether to pity or envy the meteorologists. They're never right but they get paid handsomely!
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