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[William]

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[Yao]

Short short

[William]

Why all images are square

[winter]

經紀發財客戶輸錢 歐羅大貶中國頭痛

一、

道瓊斯指數突然轉勢急挫之際，華爾街喜訊頻傳，指的當然不是股市大升，而是「大行」管理層今年可能再度豐收 ；周二消息傳出，第一季數大銀行的「炒賣」（trading）成績甚佳，花旗、美銀、ＪＰ摩根及高盛竟然錄 得「每個交易日都有進賬」的輝煌業績，和去年「每五個交易日有一天虧本」比較，今年勝舊年，十 分顯然。

和所有商業機構一樣，投資銀行的花紅與公司盈利掛鈎，在「金融海嘯」初起的二○○八年，據紐約州審計處的統 計，華爾街從業員分享的花紅為四百二十六億（美元．下同）；去年金融市場風高浪急，金融業看似風雨飄搖、風 聲鶴唳，財政部為挽狂瀾，注資以千億計，但是年華爾街從業員分享的花紅卻高達五百五十億，看來今年將破此紀 錄。這三二年來華爾街雖「臭名遠播」，投資銀行家如過街老鼠，但美國名校尤其是哈佛高材生仍千方百計進入投 資銀行工作，其原因真是「一字咁淺」，皆因華爾街「年底花紅」極為可觀之故；美國學生大都向錢看，華爾街遂 成為最佳出處，最近與大名家西蒙．莊遜合寫《十三個銀行家》（《13 Bankers》）的占士．郭（James Kwak，此書出版後，筆者電郵問他可有中文名，回郵說他是南韓人），五月五日便在其網站（The Baseline Scenario）分析這種現象，開篇便說長春藤大學學生見錢眼開（it is all about the money）！

華爾街炒業大旺，然而，所旺者僅是金融機構本身，它們的客戶，以今年第一季為例，則虧損不菲，彭博昨天的特 稿指出，期內高盛的推介「九有七錯」，這便是中環人所說的「山埃貼士」，按照其「貼士」買波蘭貨幣（zlo ty）空日圓者，損失幅度達百分之十四、購入在香港上市的中國股票者輸百分之九點四、買英鎊空紐元者則蝕百 分之九點八……。今年初不少「大行」極力向香港客戶推薦空英鎊持歐羅，「依計」行事者虧損當在 二成左右！

客戶輸錢，為他們「服務」的投資銀行則大賺，原因有二。第一當然是它們替客戶買賣的佣金手續費可觀（每次都 有收益，因此頻頻買賣）。第二則是所謂「坐盤」交易，即公司以本身的資金在市場炒賣，這種做法當局現在正檢 討，以它們的宗旨在「服務客戶」而非「自肥」（這是發牌條件之一）；不過，令投資銀行成為眾矢之的的是，它 們經常與客戶對賭，由於客戶的資料盡在其掌握中，它們大殺三方，不在話下。

根據「大行」的「推介」買賣虧本，以市場變幻莫測，「投資顧問是人不是神仙」，不足為奇，但以美國為例，從 去年開始，已有不少投資者認為他們的損失是被誤導所引致，而希臘政府所以陷入不能自拔的財政黑洞，如今痛定 思痛，亦懷疑被投資顧問誤導，投資銀行為做成交易當客戶為羊牯，並不罕見，在牛市時客戶可從其他途徑獲利， 便不為已甚；於熊市中輸得甚慘，若覺受愚，在「流氓律師」多如牛毛主動招徠生意的美國，興訟便 成常事。

投資銀行為了推銷所包銷的投資工具，許多時特別是市況疲弱時，便會花樣百出、又哄又騙，勸客戶購進，結果當 然盈虧皆有（視市況而定），惟於跌市時，客戶一發現被騙，告上法庭便屬家常便飯。記得八十年代末或九十年代 初，當年炙手可熱中環可說無人不聞其名的大摩資深投資策略家畢格斯（B. Biggs），為了推銷俄羅斯（或蘇聯）債券，對客戶佯稱他自己亦傾囊購進；結果該債券價格大跌，焦頭爛額 的客戶一查，原來畢格斯並沒購入……。這場官司後以「庭外和解」由大摩賠款了事。

客戶蝕錢公司財源廣進，是金融界的常態！二十世紀三十年代那本薄薄的「經典」《客戶的遊艇何在 ？》（F. Schwed:《Where are the Customers' Yachts?》），寫的便是這種情況。

二、

不少香港投資者在歐羅上傷亡枕藉，相信中國政府亦然。眾所周知，最近一二年，北京錢多膽子壯，老是公開表明 擔心其所持美元儲備（至今已達二萬四千億）的購買力因美滙江河日下而「縮水」，除出「口術」要老美「管好」 其貨幣之外，同時有計劃有步驟地減少美元比重，改而增持歐羅（日圓英鎊皆不足取）。本來這種轉換「值得鼓勵 」，以過去一段不短時間，外滙市場上眾口一詞，看淡美元看好歐羅；可惜人算不如天算，希臘財危爆發，禍延歐 羅，中國為此也許會招致一定損失。

歐羅幣值四腳朝天，還改變了貿易「生態」。非常明顯，中國對歐盟的出口將因此大受打擊，過去四個月，人民幣 兌歐羅升了約百分之十五，其對歐盟輸出價格上升（即使幅度不及滙價），由於競爭劇烈、邊際利潤率因成本上漲 而下降，肯定不利中國出口業。在這種窘迫的情形下，美國正引頸以待人民幣升值，而北京亦已為升值做好準備（ 見五月十二日本欄），如今形勢驟變，人民幣升值會否押後另議？大家只能翹首以待。數天前，世銀副行長兼首席 經濟學家林毅夫指出人民幣升值只會加深美國通脹而無助其改善對華貿易逆差，筆者雖未讀林教授發言原文，但從 外電報道所理解，林氏大概是認為中國輸美的主要為非耐用物品的日常必需品，由於價格極具競爭性，人民幣升值 出口價相應提高後，美國人比較之下仍得買已加價的中國貨。這即是說，人民幣升值因而不利美國民生經濟（物價 貴了購買量不變，價格推動的通脹如影隨形而至）。這種剖析當然有道理，但美國當前的「國策」是要在二○一五 年達致出口倍增的標的，人民幣兌美元升值，等於輸華美貨價格較廉，因此有促銷作用。不過，由於歐羅滙價大挫 ，即使跌勢中止而在現水平徘徊，已足以使美貨輸歐大受挫折（歐洲人購買力下降買不起美國貨），在這種情形下 ，美國只能厚望中國大購美貨了，若不如此，美國出口大增目標怎能達致……。奧巴馬要增出口，目的在減低失業 率，這關係到美國政情，如果他誇下促進出口提高就業的諾言無法兌現，民主黨在下屆大選中便「雄 風不再」。

綜上所述，滙價形勢大變，美國對中國市場倚賴愈深，中國購進美國貨物多寡，可說左右奧巴馬的政治前途。中國 能否把握這種形勢，在下周一（五月二十四日）召開的「中美戰略及經濟對話」（Ｓ＆ＥＤ）會議上，就有關滙價 及貿易議題上迫使美國讓步！

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[mhollis]

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[William]

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[William]

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[William]

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[William]

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[William]

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[William]

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[williamtest]

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[williamtest]

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[William]

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[William]

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[williamtest]

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